The Quest for Shreveport: taking stock of the stretch run

Lovely in December, or so Alabama fans have said.*

With Auburn mercifully enjoying a bye week, the main attraction from the JCCW's burnt orange-and-navy blue perspective was attempting to gauge exactly how much hope our Tigers have of scraping together the two or three wins necessary to bag a bid to the Poulan/Weedeater I'll Be Dead In the Cold Cold Ground Before I Recognize The Current Sponsor Independence Bowl, that glorious annual celebration of SEC dreams deferred, that Rose Bowl of shattered hopes. I'm not sure if salvaging a trip to Shreveport is really so much better than than the alternative, but the extra practices will help for 2009 and a nine-year bowling streak isn't anything to sneeze at, so it's Next Great City of the South or Bust!

As for the odds of "or Bust," here's a glance after this week's action:

West Virginia

Auburn's Odds as Expressed by Stock Arrow: Down, slightly

Why: West Virginia of course didn't play Saturday, and the last time they took the field it took a late-fourth quarter Noel Devine-shaped rabbit out of the offense's hat to avoid giving Syracuse the ball with a chance to win the game. In case there was any doubt about how embarrassing a (home!) loss that might have been, the 'Cuse promptly went out Saturday and got housed by South Florida.

To be fair, though, the 'Eers had a great big giant extenuating circumstance for their Syracuse struggles: Pat White didn't play. And his backup was hurt. Both quarterbacks, however, are apparently expected to be healthy for the Auburn game. So that's a point in WVU's favor, and the non-Syracuse part of their resume took a bit of an uptick this weekend as well as mediocre 'Eer conquerors East Carolina and Colorado pulled out victories and 'Eer conqueree Rutgers survived three missed field-goal attempts to upset UConn. WVU isn't the national contender they were portrayed to be pre-season, but at 4-2 and 2-0 in the Big East the wheels haven't completely come off the wagon, either.

Current Evaluation: Given 1.Paul Rhoads' relative success against the Artist Formerly Known as the Spread n' Shred 2. the 'Eers offensive collapse even with White taking snaps 3. the theoretical bye week-induced improvement in defensive health, even on the road Auburn likely has a better chance of stifling WVU and forcing a friendly 17-14 kind of game than they do against any of their other three D-I opponents. Even with White back, this game is a toss-up. More on it later this week, obviously.

Ole Miss

Auburn's Odds as Expressed by Stock Arrow: No movement.

Why: Sure, Auburn shouldn't take a lot of heart in the Rebels outgaining the nation's No. 2 team on the road or proving comprehensively that the way to outsmart their defense is by attacking them deep, which Auburn looks as qualified to do as I am to oversee the operations of the Large Hadron Collider. Ole Miss's win at Florida and general offensive competence had already marked them as the favorites when Auburn comes to Oxford and nothing they did against the Tide changed that.

But I don't think it necessarily made the Rebels heavier favorites than they were already. It didn't change the fact, for instance, that the Rebels have played better ball on the road than at home, for instance. It didn't change the book on Jevan Snead as dangerously inconsistent or his teammates as dangerously unable to hold onto the ball.

Current Evaluation: As with Vanderbilt when they made their trip to Vaught-Hemingway, barring a stunning transformation Auburn's offense isn't going to match Ole Miss's punch-for-punch. It's just not happening. So it's going to take a few of the same implosions from the Rebel offense that cost them the win against the 'Dores. The good news is that based on the 'Bama loss, they still seem perfectly capable of those implosions; the bad news is that depending on them still doesn't seem like a reliable path to victory.

Tennessee-Martin

Auburn's Odds as Expressed by Stock Arrow: To the extent we're considering Auburn's "odds" against an FCS school, down, I guess.

Why: After a 35-7 win over Tennessee Tech, the Skyhawks are now 6-2 overall, 4-1 in Ohio Valley play. They also seem to have a penchant for defensive touchdowns, which of course might be the one thing that would keep the game interesting into the second half.

Current Evaluation: Here's where the football god-appeasing "Anything could happen" goes--Anything could happen!--and I'm not expecting a repeat of South Florida's 56-7 annihilation of these guys, but unless Auburn's offense just spent the bye week dancing around a maypole and eating turkey legs, Auburn's not losing this game. They're just not. I refuse to even acknowledge the possibility, since the tears are going to start up again if I do.

Georgia

Auburn's Odds as Expressed by Stock Arrow: Up a tick

Why: "Rethinking the offense" is a ludicrous idea for a team that's racked up 425, 458, and 461 yards in three of its last four games. (How on earth are you going to hold up "30 points" as a barometer of UGA's schematic failures when they were one dropped pass away from reaching that point vs. UT and missed two field goals vs. Vandy?) But that doesn't change the fact that if one dominance-everywhere-but-the-scoreboard performance against Arizona St. was a fluke, a second one against Tennessee is a trend, and then a third against Vanderbilt is an out-and-out issue.

This is good news for Auburn, since it would take a nigh-on heroic performance from the defense to keep the Dawgs from running up the same kind of yardage advantage they've enjoyed against the Sun Devils, Vols, and 'Dores. But hey, if they're willing enough to pass on turning that advantage into the points required to make it a two-possession game late in the fourth quarter, maybe some Kodi Burns pixie dust can succeed where Mackenzi Adams's last gasp failed.

Current Evaluation: That sure as hell don't mean it's likely. Georgia will be a heavy, heavy favorite for a reason.

Alabama

Auburn's Odds as Expressed by Stock Arrow: Also up a tick.

Why: Because the Tide took one more step towards clinching the SEC West before Auburn ever comes to town. Over his two seasons in T-Town, the coachbot has proven plenty capable of having his team play their best games when the stakes are at their highest and the spotlight has shone its brightest. The results or all other games, however, have been somewhat mixed, and while Auburn might not ever be exactly "all other games," knowing that Florida or a Georgia rematch will be waiting for 'Bama on the other side of the Iron Bowl sure as hell won't hurt Auburn's chances.

Also: as Braves and Birds sort of reveals amidst the Dawg-talk, down-to-down 'Bama just hasn't been quite as impressive as their laurels might indicate, thanks to the no-show against Tulane and wheezes past Kentucky and now Ole Miss. Maybe, just maybe, if there is a God and he is a fair and just God who loves Auburn the way I know he does because he's awesome and totally not because I've created him in my own WAR EAGLE! image, it'll catch up to the Tide at the exact perfect moment for catching up.

Current Evaluation: Odds aren't much better than against the Dawgs, if at all, but ah, hope will keep on springin' eternal.

Final verdict: Preseason, the West Virginia game was an exciting diversion from the chase for an SEC West title. Now? Given how much difficulty the Auburn offense is going to have keeping up with Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama--I mean, hell, they got all the help in the world and couldn't keep up with Arkanasas--the trip to Morgantown will be Auburn's best hope at securing the sixth win that gets them to Shreveport. It couldn't be more pivotal. Here's to hoping that bye week worked as many wonders as I'm daydreaming (if not expecting) that it did.

*Just let me talk my smack while I can, please. Thanks.