Second things second: this isn't going to live up to previous Friday previews. There just doesn't seem to be much point in a detailed breakdown of what Ole Miss brings to the table vs. what Auburn's bringing. We know, just as we knew against Arkansas and just as we knew against West Virginia, that they've got a much, much better offense than Auburn does and that Auburn's going to run a pretty substantial yardage deficit that without a boatload of turnovers and special teams play, Auburn won't be able to overcome. Third verse, same as the first.
But hey, a regular feature's a regular feature. So here we go.
At stake: For Ole Miss, the chance to take another big step in their climb to a potential New Year's Day bowl berth; win tomorrow and they're home victories over ULM and Miss. St. away from the Chick-Fil-A Bowl at worst. Plus, I suspect there's still more than a few folks in Oxford that would love to send Tubby's last-gasp at bowl eligibility home in a pine box.
Because, make no mistake, this is pretty much the last gasp for Auburn's postseason hopes. I will retain some measure of irrational hope heading into Amen Corner regardless, but if Auburn doesn't pull this one out tomorrow, it just doesn't stand to reason that a team whose most impressive win is "3-2 at Mississippi St." is going to rise up and dethrone Georgia or Alabama. There's hope, yes. But Auburn had best beat Ole Miss anyway. Juuuuuust in case.
When Ole Miss has the ball: Auburn will be facing the nation's 55th-ranked offense, better than Arkansas's, better than West Virginia's, despite having faced what Sagarin calls the nation's 11th-toughest schedule-to-date. Snead is a good quarterback, Bolden is a good running back, they have several receivers who would be Auburn's clearcut No. 1, blah blah blah. Unless the Auburn back seven has taken a magic Improvement Potion since last the previous Thursday or Rhoads has some sort of previously unseen anti-Rebel wizardry in store, they're going to get their yards.
Fortunately, Auburn has an excellent track record of stopping Houston Nutt's offenses in even years. Except by "excellent," I mean a 27-10 loss in 2006, a 38-20 loss in 2004, and a 38-17 loss in 2002. (Also a 42-17 loss in 2001. FWIW.)
The point: with no Thorpe, no Blackmon, Carter and Powers hobbled, and a half-dozen other nagging injuries, I don't see any reason the perfectly capable offense of Ole Miss won't do what the capable offenses of LSU, Arkansas, and WVU did. They do turn the ball over a lot; 105th in turnover margin as of this week, in fact. Unless they turn it over in Auburn's red zone a few times, I don't see that we keep them below, say, 28.
When Auburn has the ball: Well, Juco All-American wasn't lying to us: Ole Miss ranks 88th in passing defense and gave up 267 and 327 yards, respectively, to the not-so-sexy passing attacks of Wake Forest and South Carolina under Chris Smelley, so yes, the Rebels are vulnerable in the secondary.
Too bad Auburn is running an offense that in its last game only attempted three passes longer than 15 yards downfield. Too bad Auburn ranks 108th in the country in yards-per-passing attempt. Ole Miss's secondary troubles, it seems pretty likely, won't actually matter all that much.
Their rush defense, however--the one featuring line monsters like Jeria Perry, Greg Hardy, etc. and ranked 29th, 23 places above Auburn and 19 places above the one from West Virginia that seized the game by the throat in Morgantown ... that one will matter.
This is dire, dire stuff, my friends. Last week, this defense went into Fayetteville and held a Hog offense we all know is much, much better than Auburn's to 21 points; to hit that total, Auburn will need yet more lightning bolts from the return teams and opportunistic ballhawking defenders. Given Ole Miss's season-long generosity I think we can expect one short field to work with; past that, well, that's why I call 'em lightning bolts.
When special teams are on the field: Auburn should still win punting and returns, to the extent that Ole Miss will have to punt at all. But placekicking ... I mean, who knows. I'd rather think about daffodils. And filet mignon. And daffodil-encrusted filet mignon. Mmmmm ... flowericious. Where was I?
Right, the preview about Auburn.
Intangible reason to worry: Everybody on this entire team knows the only thing this game might decide is whether the players "get" to tack an extra three weeks of work onto this bloodletting of a season in order to prepare for a game in f'ing Shreveport or Birmingham against the C-USA runner-up or something. The problem isn't the game--no one's going to quit in Oxford. The problem is preparation--how hard are Auburn's players going to continue working knowing the only practical carrot at the end of this week's stick is something they might voluntarily turn down? Pride and love for the game and love for coaches and teammates is all awesome and will do 90% of the trick, I'd imagine. But that last 10 percent, I suspect, is lost.
Intangible reason for confidence: Nutt's record as a home favorite thus far at Ole Miss is about like his record as a home favorite at Arkansas: delightfully spotty. Maybe the Rebels will come out delightfully unfocused and let Auburn take a quick 14-point lead, and the law of averages will finally dictate they hold onto this one. It's something.
Three wishes: 1. Burns continues looking competent and gets to chance to air it out a time or two 2. Bynes is much more active than he showed against WVU 3. Whoever the placekicker is hits everything shorter than 40 yards.
Your bottom line: One of the great things about being an Auburn fan during the Tuberville era is that for every time his team plays at a level that genuinely disappoints you, there's a second time where they've surprised the hell out of you.
Until this season, where the ledger currently reads about five or six raging disappointments and zero pleasant surprises. I have to cling to the "there's a surprise coming one of these weeks! I know it!" hope to keep from becoming completely lost as a fan. But that's the thing about it being a surprise: you don't expect it. And I don't expect it this week.
And so, in one final attempt to ... you know what? Screw the prediction. Who wants to see a hot picture of British actress Lucy Griffiths?
A HOT PICTURE OF BRITISH ACTRESS LUCY GRIFFITHS = VICTORY
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