Midweek preview: Alabama, the nuts-and-bolts

Aaarggghh Real Life delay sorry.


It rests on his shoulders. And his hair. It definitely also partially rests on his hair.

Previewin' usually waits 'til Friday, I know, but with the holiday and a bushel of other columnesque stuff to write about this rivalry, I thought I'd get the nuts and bolts stuff out of the way early.

When Alabama has the ball: it comes down to two people. Well, one group of people, and one person.

The first is the Auburn linebackers. I don't think it's much of a secret what the Tide want to do on offense: they're going to try and pulverize the Auburn defensive front on the ground and then find Jones either over the top on on some intermediate route when in need of a first down. Houston Nutt and/or Les Miles-style trickeration is not going to be in the cards this week.

Unfortunately, the Tide are very, very good at the first part of that equation. They're second in the SEC (behind only the Gators and their ridiculous 6.12 mark) and 28th in the country in yards-per-carry. They rank ahead of the same Ole Miss and LSU teams that gashed Auburn for 5.68 and 4.68 yards-a-carry, respectively. This is less than encouraging.

However: 'Bama hasn't exactly been an unstoppable force, either. Tulane, Ole Miss, Georgia, and LSU have all held the Tide to less than 4 a carry, so there's some hope. Unfortunately, how much remains debatable when you realize that the Tulane game sort of looks like a fluke and that the Rebels, Dawgs, and Tigers are all the the top 15 in the country in rush defense while Auburn ranks 45th. In other words, Alabama is better on the ground than teams Auburn hasn't stopped and Auburn isn't as good as the team that have stopped Alabama. Not good.

So that first "group of people" on which Auburn's success rests is the Auburn linebackers. Stevens, Johnson, Bynes, Evans, maybe Pybus for a play or two--they have to play out of their minds. None of the indecision that plagued them against West Virginia, none of the missed tackles that led to big gains against Ole Miss or Georgia. There was improvement against the Dawgs. There will need to be a lot more against the Tide. If there is, the better health of the defensive line means Auburn should be able to keep the Tide under 4 a carry and their offense largely in check.

Because the matchup in the air favors Auburn. For all of the secondary's youth and, essentially, limb-loss, Auburn ranks 26th in the country in pass defense. Neither Ole Miss not Georgia were able to complete a pass longer than 25 yards or so to a wide receiver. Bottom line is that they're a good unit that playing very well and should be even better with Jerraud Powers having been given another week off to heal his hamstring.

On the other side lies the country's 100th-rated passing offense. Don't pay too much attention to that, though: the Tide rank 51st in average per attempt and if you watched their Georgia game (in which 'Bama finished 13-of-16 for 205 yards), you know how deadly John Parker Wilson can be when he's on. But there's no guarantee he will be: if you watched the LSU game, where Wilson finished 15-of-31 for 215 yards and a pick without a TD, you know how inefficient even the 2008 version of John Parker Wilson can be when he's off.

He's the second person on which the fate of this side of the ball will hinge. Auburn is going to almost certainly adopt the same defensive philosophy they adopted against the Dawgs and Rebels: lots of run blitzes and an extra safety pushed up into the box to stop the ground game, paired with plenty of cushion for the receivers to prevent Jones and Co. from getting loose deep. Wilson's shown good touch on the deep balls this year but hasn't always been as consistent underneath--Auburn will most likely give him those throws and if he does find that consistency, well, Alabama will score points and win the game. If he does that and the linebackers aren't up to snuff, Alabama will win in a rout.

When Auburn has the ball: they will use the spread.

There just doesn't seem like there's much of a point in lining up in the I or ace and trying to bang straight-ahead. Alabama has the fifth-best rush D per carry in the nation. It's fair to say Arkansas and Georgia have better rushing attacks than Auburn does, and 'Bama shut them down to the tune of a combined average of 3.02 yards a rush. It's fair to say that Ole Miss and 'Bama are pretty similar in ability to shut down the run; you'll recall how Auburn (save the one big Tate run) got precisely nothing accomplished running right at the Rebels.

So expect a heavy dose of the spread and a lot of Burns trying to find Billings and Smith on outs and slants, with a few shots downfield with Slaughter, possibly. I wish I had good news to tell you about the chances of this strategy working, but, uh ... Alabama holds opponents to fewer yards-per-pass than all but three other teams in the country.

I still think this is Auburn's best chance, though, because it's not like the Tide has faced a murderer's row of talented passers: Jonathan Crompton, Tyson Lee, Cullen Harper, etc. have a way of making the stats look good. Stafford and Snead didn't have great success but they got some things done, and even Jarrett and Lee and--most damningly--Kentucky's Mike Hartline had days that might qualify as "acceptable." Where Wilson can at least assume that the Tide run game will go somewhere, Burns has no luxury: Auburn will not be able to run without him, will not be able to move much at all without him completing passes whenever available. He will need to be superhuman or Auburn will not break the 10-point mark on offense.

When special teams are on the field: Auburn does have one thing going for it: Dust and the coverage units have Auburn 16th in the country in net punting, 2nd in the SEC. Obviously we're long past the stage where we could expect Dunn or the punt return unit to provide anything, but at least Dust should (emphasis on "should") be able to at least limit Arenas's effectiveness here.

Kickoff returns are kind of a coinflip, since the returners (Davis, Arenas) are dangerous on both sides. Arenas does seem to prefer punts--he has yet to bring one of these back for a TD and the 22.6 average isn't terrifying. (He will score Saturday to spite me.) The placekicking edge goes to the Tide; Tiffin's 9-of-14 between 30 and 50 isn't exactly stellar, but it's of course a damn sight better than what Byrum's done and that's before Foot Lauderdale came down with an "inflamed knee." Auburn seems unlikely to try any field goal longer than 40 yards--and thus very likely to get stopped on downs a time or two inbetween 'Bama's 30 and 20.

So all told, special teams should be a net plus for the Tide. Auburn, of course, cannot afford a net plus for the Tide in special teams and will need their best performance of the season here to have any shot at a victory.

Your bottom line: My response to a rational, even-handed evaluation of each team's strengths is this: AAAARRGGGHHH THE PAIN MY EYES IT BURNS IT BURNS MAKE IT STOP WHAT'S HAPPENING.

I think it's fair to expect Auburn to keep the Tide from the same kind of rampage they went on in Athens and Fayetteville. The Tide are going to get their yards on the ground, but as well as Auburn's secondary has played of late the big play through the air--even with Jones freaking around like the freak he is--should be a rarity if not absent completely. It'll take a long, slow, methodical drive and if the Tide are plenty capable of those when Wilson's on, they're not if he's not.

But the special teams has to be seen as a Tide advantage--what quality team has Auburn outplayed on special teams? None--and it's awful hard to see how Auburn's going to get much accomplished on offense. Won't be able to run. Maaaaaaybe will find ways to pass. Burns is going to have to play out of his mind, both running and throwing the ball, and Ensminger's going to have to find ways of getting Fannin the ball in ways that aren't "sweep left." And the cherry on top is that Byrum's injury makes it even more likely that red zone possessions will end in demoralizing nothing.
And, of course, it goes without saying that turnovers of any kind are death sentences.

It will take, in other words, Auburn's best and first complete performance of the season.

Here is the good news: Auburn is still due for its first complete performance of the season. The offense, in particular, is improving and does seem to be ramping up to the point where it turns the yards it's scraping together into points. And yes, I could see that performance leading to the following things: 10-14 points of some variety from the offense; 3-7 points via a huge defensive or special teams (i.e. kickoff return) play; and 14-17 points allowed by the defense. This puts us in the neighborhood of 17-14, 21-17, 20-20 and the random heartache of overtime.

Do I think Auburn has to play near-perfectly to win? Yes. Do I think the odds of that happening are against them? Yes. Am I convinced they're not going to pull it off? Not in the slightest.

Friday preview: Hope

First part here. Photo at the bottom of the post by Todd Van Ernst and borrowed here.



When the dust had settled on Wes Byrum's gamewinning field goal Wes Byrum's gamewinning field goal last fall, and the same Auburn team that had lost to Mississippi St. and trailed New Mexico St. deep into the second quarter walked out of Florida Field with a win, I thought at first it was the most pleasantly shocking experience I had ever had as an Auburn football fan.

Sometime later I remembered: No, no it isn't. Nov. 13, 1999. Auburn, 4-5 with two of those wins coming in one-touchdown games against Appalachian St. and Idaho. Georgia, 6-2, ranked 14th in the country. Georgia the home team. Halftime score: 31-0, Auburn.

By the time previously Ben "Eh, whatever" Leard had connected for his fourth touchdown of pass of the day, my ecstasy had actually waned a bit, having crossed over in part to pure, unadulterated confusion: 31-0? Today? What? No, seriously: what? I had never been more happily stunned as an Auburn fan. 10 years later, even with Tommy Tuberville at Auburn's helm for every one of those years, I still haven't. The first surprise was always going to be the biggest surprise, I guess. Once we knew what Tubby was capable of, the shock wasn't ever going to be quite the same.

In fact, by the end of last season (thanks in no small part to that Florida win), the shock wasn't that Auburn had defeated a much more talented, much higher-ranked team: the shock was that Auburn had lost to that team. The LSU loss earlier this year hurt not just for being a loss, but because this was twice consecutively Tommy Tuberville had his team in position to surprise again, to reprise in some small fashion that first wonderfully bewildering moment between the hedges nine years ago, and could not do it.

This is why I do worry about Tubby's Auburn future--and Auburn's future, period-- should he lose these final two games at the Amen Corner (a nickname that seems more appropriate in 2008 than it ever did during the tenure of the coach that coined it). Auburn is, once again, in the position of being a decisive underdog to two of the best teams in the country. Once again, there's precious little in the way of rational reasons to believe Auburn will win either game. Once again, a win will be nothing less than a wondrous, near-fatal blow to the Auburn fandom coronary. If Tubby can no longer win in these hopeless situations, if Tubby can't shock us any more, is he even Tubby? And would we want someone who is no longer Tubby still coaching our football team?

There is no other way to respond to that other than to say "we'll cross that bridge when we get there," because until then, he's still Tubby. He's still the same coach who took his a football team into Athens in 1999 and came back with the Auburn Tigers. Still the same coach who beat Florida and Spurrier in 2001, Alabama and Fran in 2002, Florida and Urban Meyer in 2006 and 2007. Until proven definitively otherwise, he's still Surprise made human and pacing the Auburn sideline in a headset and glasses.

Tommy Tuberville, flawed as he may be, is the reason I have hope for Auburn in tomorrow's game against Georgia. What he did for Ben Leard, he can do for Kodi Burns. What he did for that bunch of Tigers, he can do for these. He won that game. He can win this one.

Prove it, Tubby. Prove it, Auburn. Let's go.

War Eagle.

Friday preview: Georgia, the nuts-and-bolts

Sen'Derrick Marks: the most important non-quarterback player on Auburn's team starting at 11:30 a.m. tomorrow.

This week's preview is getting split into two parts. This one will focus on the rational, down-to-down, matchup-type analysis which will make me want to bang out a new door between our place and the apartment next door with my head. The next one will be the irrational optimistic one in which I lay out the reasons I still have hope for this game because being a college football fan without hope is dumb. Besides, Auburn really could win. I'm serious.

But not for the reasons in this post.

When Auburn has the ball: Maybe, just maybe, things won't be quite as bad as you think.

Sure, Auburn's still 100th in the nation in total offense even after playing UT-Martin. Sure, I have no confidence whatsoever in our current offensive coaching staff to do what Kentucky did last week and find a way to make the absolute most out of their one genuine offensive weapon, a mobile QB. Sure, I'm basing that statement off of three halves against UT-Martin and Ole Miss, neither of which have defenses statistically anywhere near Georgia's.

And yet ... and yet ... Auburn punted a total of twice in those three halves. Burns has showed some (if not an overwhelming amount) consistency on the short slant and out routes. Burns's legs mean that Auburn now has some modicum of ability ot move the ball on the ground even out of the spread. And while the ace/I stuff didn't accomplish much against Ole Miss, between its first-half success in Morgantown and Kentucky's shoving of the Dawgs around last week, there's a glimmer of hope it could net a few yards tomorrow, too. To top it off, Burns has even hit some downfield passes each of the last two weeks.

Put it all together--a 6-yard out here, a 5-yard QB draw there, maybe a dash of Chris Slaughter down the sideline--and you've got an offense that I think can move the ball on the Dawgs a little bit. Not a lot. But a little bit.

The question is whether Auburn can turn that "little bit" into points. Burns's decision-making poisoned the well against Ole Miss; the fumblies screwed things up against Martin (to the extent things got screwed up). Until they actually do it, you can't assume they will. Until Auburn hits the 20-point mark on offense against an SEC team, you can't expect them to do that. But for the first time since they took the field against Mississippi St., I honestly feel like maybe, just maybe, the potential is there.

I'm not even that confident, however, about how things will go ...

When Georgia has the ball, because Auburn's got only one shot at keeping these guys from running all over us. When Blutarsky writes ...

The one truly excellent unit that will see the field tomorrow is the Georgia offense. Looking at the others, both Georgia’s and Auburn’s defenses started out well this season, but have sagged lately, and Auburn’s offense never got going. If there aren’t any hiccups or surprises, on paper that should be enough to generate at least a two-touchdown difference in the score. On paper.

... I tend to agree with him. Auburn got gashed by Arkansas and West Virginia all the way around and while the secondary played very well in Oxford, they couldn't do a thing with Ole Miss's ground game. So why should it be any different against Georgia, who has more talent and a better all-around offense than any of them?

Well, it shouldn't, really. Most likely, the Dawgs will blow open vast holes in the Auburn front seven, force the safeties to come up in run support, then throw to their wide receiving terrors running free downfield. This is the most probable outcome. If Auburn and Georgia played tomorrow's game 10 times, Georgia would probably put up four touchdowns or more, oh, 7-and-a-half times.

But there is one thing the Razorbacks, Mountaineers, and Rebels all had that the Dawgs do not have. And that is an intact offensive line. Oh, Georgia's line will still be good enough (and well coached enough) to do some damage. But Hog damage? 'Eer damage? Rebel damage? Maybe not. Those lines are, probably, better.

And while I'm not sure Marks, Coleman, and Doolittle are really so much healthier than they were against Arkansas, they're healthier now than they've been since then. They'd better be. Because they have to take over this game. They have to close up holes before they open. They have to tackle Moreno (and King) every single time they get the chance. They have to put enough pressure on Staford by themselves that Rhoads can leave the back seven intact and winning, hopefully, the same downfield battles that it won against Ole Miss.

If Georgia had the same caliber line as Arkansas or West Virginia or Ole Miss, I would say this is style of domination was not possible. And it remains deeply, deeply unlikely. But the Dawgs are beat up. Perhaps they do not have that kind of line. And maybe, just maybe, that kind of domination is possible after all.

When special teams are on the field: Auburn has to be perfect. Not just good. Perfect. Robert Dunn cannot fumble a punt into the endzone. Chris Slaughter cannot let a bouncing ball bounce by him for 20 yards of field position. (Remember when we were so proud of our punt returns? Dunn scaring Southern Miss into submission seems like a lifetime ago.) Hull cannot land a kickoff at the 11. Durst cannot waste a drive to the Dawg 45 by booting the ball into the end zone. The Dawgs cannot break loose for more than a first down's worth or two returning punts or kickoffs. Davis has to get Auburn past the 30--minimum--on kickoff returns. And for the love of everything holy, Byrum--make your field goals.

Anything less than perfection on special teams will reduce Auburn's chances to just a notch or two above zilch.

Nuts-and-bolts conclusion: To ask this Auburn team for a win against this Georgia team is to ask for perfection. This Auburn team, unfortunately, has not been anywhere close to perfection yet this year. To ask for a win is to ask for something deeply improbable.

But entering last year's Florida game, last year's Auburn team was perhaps--perhaps--even further from perfection. And the game they played in the Swamp that night, while not perfect, was close enough that we all could touch it. I believe Auburn can come that close again. I do. Yes, we are asking for a win. We are asking the improbable. But even looking at these nuts-and-bolts and putting aside our blind hope in our head coach, our home field advantage, our pure blind luck which has to come home to us sometime: We, the Auburn hopeful, are not asking the impossible.

More soon.

Friday preview: UT-Martin, sort of

The second half of the Ole Miss recap has been temporarily postponed. Swear to you it will be up at the beginning of next week. Sorry.



After putting together this morning's post, I drove Mrs. JCCW's ailing car to the shop--something's wrong with the fuel injectors, I think, but I know more about African politics than I do the inner workings of automobiles--and took the bus back home.

At one stop, an elderly woman boarded the bus in her motorized wheelchair. Unfortunately, either she's new to the chair or past the point of being able to capably steer it; she bumped first one and then the other side of the bus's entranceway while making her way on board and then spent the next several minutes trying and failing miserably to maneuver into the allotted wheelchair space. Back, forth. Forward, reverse. Crunch. Bonk. Remember that Austin Powers clip where he gets the little service cart stuck while trying to turn around in a narrow tunnel? It was like that, only Magnolia-level depressing instead of funny.

What really caught my attention during this sequence, though, was this 16- or 17-year old Asian kid a few seats back. He seemed to be caught between the impulse to help her and the mandate to not interfere in the business of strangers unless they ask for said interference; again and again he would lean forward or even raise himself up just a bit, then think better of it and sit back down again. Crunch, stand, sit. Bonk, lean forward, lean back. Even as the driver came over to coach her her into the right spot and went through the process of strapping and securing the chair into place, every few seconds he'd seem to be overcome by the drive to do something and he'd lift himself up for a half-second. But he never got himself any further, and eventually the driver took the wheel and drove us all home.

And so it is with we Auburn fans this year. We see our team try and try and try to get things right. They head in one direction. It doesn't seem right. They head in another. That's also not right, but they seem like they're almost there. Then they try to adjust and it somehow ends up worse than before. Crunch. Bonk. And all the while we want to help. We want to take action. We want to make this whole thing stop. But we can't figure out how, because, honestly, there is no way how. It's up to the team itself and the guy in the driver's seat. There's nothing we can do but watch and squirm and feel like it shouldn't be like this, it just shouldn't be like this at all.

So Kid, I don't blame you for that itch to go get yourself involved. But let's face it, a new message board account or withholding your applause as the coach is announced pregame at Jordan-Hare is as involved as you ought to be. We're all just riding the bus together, seeing where it takes us, praying the team can get to to the end of the line without those straps snapping and everything coming apart.

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Perhaps the greatest testament we can offer to the soul-destroying power of the Season of DEATH is this: I'm genuinely apprehensive about Auburn's game against I-AA Tennessee-Martin tomorrow.

If events unfold as they logically should, Auburn won't have any second-half problems. Auburn is vastly more talented at virtually every position, will be playing on Homecoming, and might not even have the "just a scrimmage" mentality that would plague them otherwise thanks to it having been so many long weeks since they tasted victory of any kind. Even now, even in 2008 making any sort of detailed analysis or breakdown is to give this opponent more respect than they probably deserve. It's the college football equivalent of a trip to Burger King: Auburn gets something cheap and fast to fill their aching stomachs with, UT-Martin hands that something over with as quickly and sloppily as possible, gets their check, and goes home.

Except that logic and talent so rarely hold sway in college football, and there's some evidence that down-to-down logic could hold less sway tomorrow than it might even usually hold. For starters, that Auburn's offense is so totally moribund means that the outcome could hinge on a single logic-shattering play. When you're ahead 35-7 at halftime, a fumble returned for a touchdown means nothing; when you're ahead 14-3 (as Auburn is more likely to be), a fumble returned for a touchdown means you are less than one score ahead and now you must deal with the insane pressure of potentially losing to a I-AA team for the first time in school history and putting your head coach's neck squarely on the chopping block. With the exception of that singular terrific late-game drive against LSU, Auburn's offense response to any kind of pressure, much less that brand of END IS NIGH-pressure, has not been encouraging. Should that situation occur, talent may not mean a heck of a lot.

Secondly: UTM may be more likely to make that logic-shattering play than most. Back in mid-October they had already set a new I-AA record for fumble returns for touchdown in a season. They won their previous game in part thanks to an ESPN-approved 85-yard touchdown run. The only way UTM will win is by making huge plays. But apparently, they have a tendency to make them. That they're not a bad team by I-AA standards (7-2, No. 20) is just gravy.

So, yes. Apprehensive. I am reminding myself that I was apprehensive before last year's New Mexico St. game, too, a game which looked like world-ending disaster after 20 minutes only to finish with Brandon Cox slingshotting back into competence and eventually into an upset of Florida the following week. I am reminding myself that despite their record, UTM is 160th in Sagarin's predictor ratings, between run-of-the-mill I-AA teams like Missouri St. and Eastern Illinois. I am reminding myself that Auburn will not let their world end Saturday, as it most assuredly would if they lost.

But the very fact that I have to remind myself of those things to maintain the appropriate level of confidence regarding a I-AA team suggests how very badly Auburn's world has already crumbled thus far this season.

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Speaking as someone both irredeemably obsessed with Auburn football and trained over the course of six years' worth of secondary education learning to spot symbols, analogies, Deep Hidden Meanings, etc. in just about every damn thing, the Season of DEATH has been more than just disappointing or frustrating. It's been weird.

I presented you with the bus experience-as-metaphor because it's one the saner, better ones. (I think.) But those neurons end up firing all the time these days. For example: the Mrs. JCCW and I have been eating these Stouffer's skillet dinner-thingies for, uh, dinner lately. Most of these have been pleasantly tasty, but a few nights ago we tried the Chicken Teriyaki and came away underwhelmed by the overly sweet sauce and mealy water chestnuts. As I rinsed my plate off, I thought "Hmmm ... solid track record, familiar ingredients, straightforward recipe ... this should have been a better dinner. Just like Auburn should have been a better football team. We'll never buy Chicken Teriyaki again; is the Auburn administration willing to give this coaching staff a second chance, or just scrape them away into the garbage disposal?" And it was shortly thereafter that I realized that I don't need Auburn to win Saturday just to keep Tubby employed or to give the team at least a modicum of confidence; from a personal standpoint, I may need the win to make sure I retain some level of sanity.

It's been a strange, strange year already. I'd really rather not have to deal with it getting any stranger.

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Here's the thing about the uniforms: sure, it's a stunning coincidence, but the similarities run even deeper. As mentioned, the Skyhawks aren't going to be able to score reliably or move the ball consistently against Auburn. They'll have to get some big, big plays to pull off the shocker.

So not only will Auburn's visitors on homecoming look like Auburn, but they'll play like Auburn, too. Or at least the way Auburn has to play against D-I teams; after a fashion, for this one game Auburn's opponent will be more Auburn than Auburn will be. Auburn will be more like Alabama playing Auburn, in fact. If Auburn wins, it'll be like a preview of watching Auburn lose the following weeks; if Auburn loses, heaven forbid, it'll be like watching a blueprint of how Auburn could win the following weeks.

Whoever wins, it's safe to say, the winner is irony.

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If the effect of watching Auburn this year has indeed been one of confusion and helplessness, this Saturday for yours truly promises more of the same. For the first time all season even Game Plan doesn't have my expatriate back, and I'm not shilling for a single game of radio. So instead it'll be three-and-a-half hours of CSTV's Gametracker, in which tiny computer-generated cone-men representing Kodi Burns and Josh Bynes vie on a Flash-animated playing field for the future of Tommy Tuberville and the Auburn football program.

The chance that they will fail is very, very small, so maybe it's a good thing that I won't be visually connected with my football team. Maybe this will make the stakes seem smaller and the game more routine. But maybe, especially if the roof does begin to cave in, maybe it'll just make me feel even more removed, even more helpless and antsy, even more like the kid on the bus who wants to scream and twitch at how horribly awry everything's gotten. I feel like I can't take anything for granted.

That's 2008, unfortunately. Nothing taken for granted. Not even Tennessee-Martin, not even Homecoming. Straighten things out for me, Auburn. Calm me down, Auburn. Just for a Saturday. Make things make sense again, if only for a little while.

Friday Thursday preview: West Virginia

The good news is that this guy almost has to carry their team. The bad news is that he's good enough to carry them and probably two other teams besides.

Man alive, remember how this was supposed to be one of the Games of the Year, not only for the participants but on the national landscape of college football? How this was going to be the game that either took Auburn from potential SEC West winner enjoying a good-but-not-great season to national player or shut up West Virginia's BCS title-game skeptics with a bona fide SEC scalp? How everyone in the country would turn away from the World Series long enough to check out two fast-paced top-15 teams battle it out in a thrilling atmosphere?

Nevermind all that now, obviously. Prepare yourself instead for Disappointment Bowl 2008! Loser gets to play Clemson* next week.

At stake: For Auburn, I more-or-less covered this earlier today. It'd be really, really nice to take another step on the road towards Shreveport (or Birmingham) and from the fan's perspective it'd be wonderful for the vortex of PROGRAM IN CHAOS stories to dissipate for a week-plus, but honestly, that lower-tier bowl bid and the three critical weeks of practice that come with it are about the biggest thing on Auburn's table tonight.

As for West Virginia, there's still time to climb back into the polls and all the way into a New Year's Day (or better) bowl bid if they can continue their phoenix-like rise from the ashes of those two early-season embarrassments at ECU and Colorado. Lose tonight to a reeling, legitimately bottom-third-of-the-SEC team like Auburn at home, however, and I have to think that they're both going to find themselves summarily dismissed from any kind of national consciousness and the heat on Bill Stewart turned up to a seriously uncomfortable degree.

For what it's worth--not much--both teams will also have a chance to strike a blow in the eternal, unending Conference Wars. The Big East probably has a little more to lose here than the SEC has to gain. If you care, and you probably shouldn't.

When West Virginia has the ball: they're not going to throw it much. The 'Eers are a stunning 113th in the country in passing offense and 115th in yards-per-attempt; both marks fall short of even Auburn's hapless passing game, and WVU doesn't even have the excuse of playing a difficult schedule, with their five D-I opponents ranking 58th, 56th, 103rd, 23rd, and 82nd in pass defense despite having gotten to face West Virginia. To be fair a 10-2 TD-INT ratio gives them a spiffy overall QB rating, but even that takes a hit when you realize five of those TDs came against I-AA Villanova. This is a grim, grim picture, and it's not affected much by Pat White's occasional injury-related absence--he's averaging just 5.7 an attempt despite getting the benefit of the Villanova numbers.

Too bad for Auburn the running game's such a decisively different story. Despite the departure of Rodriguez and OC Calvin Magee, the 'Eers ridonkulous backfield and senior-laden offensive line are still rushing at almost their previous clips, ranking 13th in the country with 225 yards a game. Pat White and Noel Devine are both averaging more than six yards a carry, and if you round up just a tad, Rutgers is the only team yet this season who's held WVU to less than five yards a carry as a team. These guys are going to get their yards on the ground as long as the oft-injured White finishes the game; their worst performance of the season came against Syracuse, with White sitting the whole game on the bench with a head injury.

There are a few caveats for the hopeful Auburn fan, however, even if White plays all 60 minutes. First, none of the 'Eers opponents-to-date rate better in rushing defense than ECU at 67th; Auburn currently ranks 25th. Second is that the passing attack has been so feeble that even with the ground attack, WVU ranks only 79th in total offense. Their yard-per-play average ranks about 20 spots better, which would indicate that while they're capable of springing the big play, they're not good at sustaining drives. Thus the 605 yards of combined offense in their two losses that amounted to all of 17 points. If Auburn can avoid handing the home team big plays or short fields to work with, it should be able to keep the game in the teens-to-low-20s and within striking distance.

When Auburn has the ball: who the hell knows?

Well, actually, we do know that we're going to both a) see plenty of Kodi Burns, and likely an entire game's worth b) see many more three-point stances and run-first formations. Betwene these two moves, I'm expecting Auburn's rushing attack to be much improved. Like, those first two drives against Vandy-improved.

Even with that improvement, though, it's questionable how much Auburn's going to accomplish on the ground against a surprisingly stout WVU D ranked 37th in the country. The 'Eers only returned one member of their three-man front, but the linebackers (led by leading tackler Mortty Ivy) are one unit that's lived up to Stewart's preseason gushing. Syracuse and Colorado are the only teams that have even approached four-yards-a-carry against the 'Eers thus far.

But ah, again there's some good news: even for all of Auburn's ground-game difficulties, they rank about the same as the aforementioned Orange and Buffaloes. With a better commitment to the ground game, the bye week preparation, Burns playing the whole game, and Brad Lester allegedly healthy again, Auburn should be a much better rushing team than those numbers indicate. It's not going to be 2004-2005 party time again, but this should be a decent game on the ground for Auburn.

In the air, though ... Eh. WVU's stats aren't as impressive as on the ground--they're 59th--but they've improved as the season has gone along (Rutgers is the only team to make even 6.0 yards an attempt in their last four) and of course 105th-ranked Auburn has yet to accomplish anything via the pass outside the LSU game. And we're tossing a guy into the fire who through two seasons has yet to prove himself remotely consistent as a passer.

The forecast from here is for Auburn to dial up a 2007-esque heavy dose of the ground game with the occasional surprise Burns pass. If Auburn can get some push up front against the 'Eers three-man line and if Burns can find his receivers and if Auburn can finish the drives they tossed away against Arkansas--the 0-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio is the stat that cost them that game--Auburn could reach that same teens-to-low-20s scoring plateau. But that's a lot of ifs, and expecting anything more is hoping for the moon.

When special teams are on the field: For God's sake Auburn, keep theb all away from Devine and Jock Sanders as best you can. Because if we don't, this will be a sore spot--they've got a very good punter and it seems unlikely Davis is going to break a big one two games running. As always, Byrum has to be ready to get points out of Auburn's precious few scoringish drives, not that I have any faith any more he will be.

Intangible reason for worry: SEC teams, if you haven't noticed, have not had much luck at all against these guys the last couple of years and if that's because conference pride matters to them, well, it's still going to matter more to them than it will to Auburn. Of course, maybe things will change thanks to Auburn's ...

Intangible reason for confidence: Paul Rhoads. Actually, this is more a tangible thing. If WBGV is right and the offense is going to stick closer to Rodriguez's schemes, Auburn should be even more ready for that than they would be otherwise.

Three Wishes: 1. No WVU run longer than 25 yards; Auburn must make them drive the field. 2. No more than one three-and-out when backed up inside Auburn's own 20; Auburn must make them drive the field. 3. Auburn wins the turnover battle; Auburn must make them drive the field.

Success is / failure is: A win / a loss. This item should be retired at this point, actually, save for the UT-Martin game.

Your bottom line: Flip a coin. WVU's season-to-date has shown that when facing any kind of competent defense, they're not going to explode for the points-a-lanche that buried so many other opponents over the past couple of years. At the same time, at home, expecting them to get held to 3 again (as against ECU) seems to be asking too much. At home, I'd peg them for either 17 or 20 points.

As for Auburn, even as bad as the offense has been, they've still found a way (thanks, defense and special teams!) to score two TDs or more in every game save the Miss. St. debacle, and I do honestly believe the Vandy/Arkansas fiascoes were the rock bottom. Between that slight tick of improvement and some defensive and special teams help, I'd peg them for either 17 or 20 points.

In short, this will be yet another game for Auburn that comes down to the fourth quarter, the final possession, a single play. (Have you realized that Auburn's last five games have been decided by a total of 12 points?) If Auburn makes that play, they win. They don't, they lose. Is there any point in actually predicting the outcome of a single play? It seems like Auburn's due, and Lord knows I hope they are, but ...

And so, in one final attempt to look spectacularly wrong ...



Auburn 20, West Virginia 17; or West Virginia 20, Auburn 17. Ask your coin which one.

*The only other unranked team from the AP preseason top 10.

Friday preview: Arkansas

Fill in the blank to complete the cheap and utterly tasteless joke at the pictured Arkansas quarterback's expense: This weekend, Auburn will _________

1. get the short end of the Dick
2. get totally Dicked over
3. win only if Arkansas's too busy Dicking around
4. lose. But hey, their QB's last name is Dick! Ha! Ha ha!

Ha! Ha ha ... ha ... Eh. That wasn't as much fun as I'd hoped, and now I've probably lost a lot of your respect and I have to apologize to my mother. Sorry, Mom.

The thing is, if stop with the Dick jokes I have to start writing about the actual game, and every time I think for longer than a couple of seconds about Auburn's offense attempting to play an actual game of football I start to cry.

Oh well. It'll be shorter than usual, but here's the JCCW's Tear-Stained Letter Preview anyway:

At stake: For Arkansas, not much, really. I'm sure it'd be nice for Petrino to silence the tiny minority of doubters and to cut short the outside possibility of "2-10 with the two wins over Western Illinois and ULM," but this season is primarily about getting ready for next season and a loss to Auburn doesn't do much to change that.

For Auburn ... well, it's my understanding that Tuberville has some sort of personal history with the gentleman coaching on other sideline. It's also my understanding said history won't be of too much concern should Auburn lose, since it will--without question--mark the lowest point for the program since Terry Bowden departed.* If Auburn cannot beat Arkansas at home, the odds they will finish the season with even so much as a winning record will be longer than I'd care to calculate. No, I don't think Tubby's job is one the line. But to be frank: it might retroactively be, if he loses here and then can't save himself at the Amen Corner.

When Arkansas has the ball: it might not be what you think. The story at the start of the Hogs' season was all about Casey Dick, he of the fourth-quarter comebacks and staggering yardage totals and hilarious last name.

But something interesting happened when Arkansas started playing real competition: Dick went back to being a slightly more composed version the same liability he'd always been. Dick was brutal against the Tide, finishing with an average of only 4.7 yards over his 46 attempts and with four devastating interceptions. He was better against Texas before going into the tank again against Florida, watching the yards-per-completion dip under 10 again and repeatedly failing to make the key throw needed to turn the Hogs' long drives into Florida territory into actual points. Remember, too that this was against a Florida secondary that turned Jevan Snead into a hero for a week.

However, there was a giant flashing bright spot for the Hogs against the Gators in the form of RB Michael Smith and the Hog rushing attack, which plowed through a previously-stiff Gator front seven for a stunning 5.6 a carry, enough for the Hog offense as a whole to average 5.7 a play. This was a quantum leap forward from the Texas game, where the Hogs carried 26 times for 11 yards. But as the 'Horns took Dick down for seven sacks in that contest, those numbers are a little skewed; there's enough evidence to suggest the Hogs will be more dangerous on the ground.

And, in fact, given their beef up front and the number of walking wounded along Auburn's front seven, they'll probably make some hay that way. The key for Auburn will be stopping Dick on third-down conversions and plays in Auburn territory when the ground game stalls, and with Powers out and the freshmen on the field for longer and longer stretches, that's easier said than done. As phenomenal as Auburn's defense has been, in its current battered shape and with Arkansas due to start converting its many yards into points--they were a sinkhole against Texas, but they've moved the ball with some level of success against every other team they've played, even the Tide--methinks we're going to see a performance closer to LSU's or Vandy's against the Auburn defense than Miss. St'.'s or Tennessee's.

When Auburn has the ball: you're going to see a truly bad defense on the field. The Hogs currently rank 88th in the country overall, and that's with both Alabama and Texas playing run-run-run-punt the entire second half. The Louisiana-Monroe team Auburn shut out gained 341 yards on the Hogs and had drives of 55, 78, 53, and 42 yards. Their pass defense is a mediocre 63rd in the country ranked by yards-per-attempt (more accurate than the gross total, since there wasn't any need for Texas or the Tide to throw the ball), but even that looks like great shakes compared to their staggeringly awful run defense, somehow 114th in the country in opponent's yards-per-rush despite 2/5ths of their games coming against Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe. Any competent offense would tear through these guys like tissue paper.

But ah, this is where we come to Auburn's offense and where I avoid the sweet, sweet temptation of prescription narcotics. I'll say this: if Auburn comes out in the old-fashioned Borges base and grinds away at the Hogs, they might get somewhere, where "getting somewhere" is adjusted to expectations to mean "14ish points, 17ish if Byrum wakes up on the right side of the bed, finally."

But who knows what Auburn's going to do, or if they're in any prepared to do it? Quoting your own post from earlier the same day is awful blogging form, but I'm doing it anyway: This time when Ensminger takes over the playcalling, the offense will have practiced something completely different for the last 10 months, has no starting quarterback, will allegedly have its plays called from a playbook Ensminger has no experience with, and won't have the services of Jason Campbell, Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Marcus McNeill, etc. Aside from all of that, though, it'll be just like 2003 all over again!

Please: shoot me.

When special teams are on the field: Neither placekicker can make a kick, there aren't any returners of note with Dunn and Davis hobbled, with Durst looking somewhat human vs. Vandy there's no advantage there either. (Look, Auburn and Arkansas both average 41.18 yards a punt. Whooppee!) There's nothing to see here. (Which is why the Hogs will spring a kickoff return or something.)

Intangible reason to worry: There are no reasons to worry. None I can think of, anyway.

Intangible reason for confidence: Surely the football gods wouldn't reward the slimeball Petrino with a potential death knell-type victory over the guy whose back still bear the stab wounds he inflicted, right? Right?

Three Wishes: 1. Kodi Burns; I have a feeling I may finally get this one granted! 2. No fumbles; I'm expecting a heavier dose of Tate, Lester, Davis, maybe even Smith this go-round, and Auburn's offense simply can't afford in any way, shape, or form to give away possessions on low-risk plows into the line. 3. No drops in the secondary; likewise, Dick's liable to make a few bad throws, and the Auburn secondary has to come up with the big play they've whiffed on a few times thus far this season.

Success is / failure is: A win / a loss. Nothing else matters at this point.

Your bottom line: Even as lustily as the Arkansas defense has drank from the River Suck this season, frankly, I have more faith in Petrino's offense to move the ball and score than I do Ensminger's--for reasons that ought to be made plenty clear by the shuddering reaction you, Auburn fan, just experienced to seeing those two last names contrasted like that. I expect Arkansas to find some holes in the Auburn defense. I expect Arkansas to outgain Auburn. I expect Arkansas to have the lead at various points in the game.

What do I expect from Auburn? I don't know. At all. I would say "They'll be so angry!" but the events of this week surely, inevitably, have been a huge anger-draining distraction. I would say "Tubby's back is against the wall!" but Tubby's also coming into this game with Auburn a double-digit favorite the general populace expects to rumble past their "feeble" opponents with relative ease. I would say "Last week was rock bottom, oh please dear sweet Lord tell us that was rock bottom," but after Wednesday, I'm not all that confident in saying that.

This is the hope: Antonio Coleman. And Zac Etheridge. And Merrill Johnson. And Ben Tate. And Tyronne Green. And Tez Doolittle, who didn't come back from a shredded Achilles tendon for a sixth year for this. And Rod Smith and Brad Lester and Tray Blackmon and the career he ought to have that slips, slips away every week.

Hand me a blindfold: if I cannot bring myself to have faith in these men with my eyes open, then I will have my faith with my eyes closed. But damn it all, even after the events of this week this is Auburn. I'm going to keep my faith.

And so, in one final attempt to look spectacularly wrong ...



Auburn 24, Arkansas 23

Friday preview: Vanderbilt

Here's to hoping this is closer than D.J. Moore's hands ever get to the ball on Saturday.

This is usually the part of the Friday preview where you link back to your Cheese Puff piece, right? But if I remember correctly, Tennessee's was the final one you completed. That's correct. But wait! I did at least get the introduction to the Vandy edition of the Cheese Puff series written and metaphorized, and since it will segue nicely into the next part of this preview, that intro is preserved here:

"Oh, Vandy. Vandy Vandy Vandy. Poor cursed, benighted, lovable Vandy. On one hand, I feel like it's simply impossible for them to let bowl eligibility slip through their fingers forever; on the other, I wonder if they're simply fated to wander the cellars of the SEC for eternity, groping in the dark for a winning season like that Greek dude with the lamp* who spent his whole life searching for one honest man.

You might think that would be enough metaphor for Vandy's plight for one post, but the English major in me finds the 'Dores' struggles too epic to leave off even there. So, if you've got a few minutes to kill, I'd suggest fast-forwarding a minute in and watching this Canadian musical tribute to 25 consecutive losing seasons:



I like thinking of the part where Mr. Johnson (!) falls into the mine full of bats as the 2005 loss to MTSU.

Of course, all this focus on Vandy's Great Books-quality failures sorta ignores the fact they have some big honking wins under Johnson. They haven't yet come against Auburn, but even when the macrocosmic view of the 'Dores is pure frustration, there's no reason there can't be joy in the microcosm of hosting an Auburn squad coming off their toughest two-game stretch in years."

This is what's At Stake for Vandy Saturday: the end of the failure. The end of any talk of curses or bad luck or how they can't survive SEC football. The jokes about intramurals are done forever, or at least for another 25 years. After the 4-0 start, that line about a win over Auburn only registering on the small-scale of things couldn't be more wrong: with Gameday, a national audience, a shiny new top-20 ranking, and the possible definitive door-shutting on more than two decades of futility , this game couldn't be any more macrocosmic for the 'Dores. For Auburn's opponent, this is as big a game as it gets, or at least as big as it'll get until they win it.

That kind of sucks. Though to be fair, this is suddenly a season-defining game for Auburn as well: win, and there's very, very good odds the Tigers sneak off into their bye week at 6-1 with enough time to reload for a surprise assault on the SEC powers-that-be down the stretch. Vandy's resurgence means there's even something to play for beyond survival, too: with Auburn universally viewed as an also-ran in the SEC West race (everywhere but where it counts, i.e. the polls, thank goodness), a solid road victory over a team drawing as much respect as Vandy is at the moment would do a lot for Auburn in the credibility department, for whatever that's worth.

An Auburn loss, of course, is the end of any sort of league or worthwhile national ambitions, just as it was last week and will be again next week.

When Vanderbilt has the ball: they're just not going to match up well. Chris Nickson's a gamer and you have to give him credit for having not thrown an interception yet this season (albeit in almost half as many attempts as any other offense in the SEC), but Vandy's still averaging just 5.7 yards a pass attempt, .2 behind even Toddapalooza and 10th in the SEC. Nickson's also thrown only three touchdown passes.

It's true that part of those ugly passing numbers are a function of Vandy's success on the ground: behind rumblin-bumblin'-stumblin' tailback Jared Hawkins and Nickson, the 'Dores average a more-than-respectable 4.62 a carry and have been especially effective in the red zone.

There's only so far that running attack is going to take them, however, for two reasons: first of all, it hasn't been exactly gangbusters against SEC competition, averaging 3.3 against South Carolina and 3.2 against Ole Miss; secondly, it's facing Auburn. As the Vols so beautifully illustrated last week, you can pick up some yards and a couple of first downs battering away at the sorta-undersized Tiger front. But to actually put the ball in the end zone, you're probably going to have the big plays LSU did. Whether Nickson and the 'Dores patently average receivers--they have two seniors in newly-healthy George Smith and Sean Walker, but if you've never heard of either there's a reason for that--can connect on those big plays is debatable and borders on "unlikely." Remember, too, that for all the youth in Auburn's secondary the Tigers are currently the SEC's best pass defense in terms of yards-per-attempt.

As well as Vandy's offensive line has played and as well-coached as they are under Johnson, the 'Dores won't be nearly as generous as the Vols if Auburn loses the battle for field position as decisively as they did Saturday. But of their 20 scoring drives on the season, only nine have been longer than 45 yards and four of those came against Miami (OH). If the Auburn offense and special teams can avoid setting up Vandy in short-field situations, there just doesn't seem to be enough oomph in the 'Dores skill position players to consistently overcome the likes of Marks, Coleman, Powers, Bynes (?), et al. If the Vandy offense can reach the 17ish-point mark that thus far only LSU has been able to crack, they'll have had a very good day for themselves.

When Auburn has the ball: they have got to hang onto it. As just explained, Vandy's offense doesn't appear to be the sort that'll be able to start at their own 20 and push Auburn all the way down the field the way LSU did. The numbers suggest the 'Dores can't even boast the sort of defense that will consistently keep Auburn from pushing them all the way down the field: Vandy is dead last in the SEC in total defense and next-to-last in yards-per-play. Down-to-down, Vandy's defense is actually definitively worse than their offense.

So how did they end up holding Ole Miss and South Carolina to 17 points each? Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. The 'Dore defense turned the 'Cocks over twice times (and got another gift on a punt return) and the Rebels a stunning six times. To quote Dr. Saturday on how badly Ole Miss threw that game away:

The headline of this game is "Ole Miss fumbles away the winning touchdown," when Dexter McCluster lost the ball into the end zone to negate his 56-yard reception on the previous play and preserve Vandy's field goal lead. But the Rebels missed opportunities and gave others away all night: Jevan Snead was picked off four times, Joshua Shene missed a field goal and Cordera Eason was stopped on 4th-and-1 at the goal line in the third quarter even before McCluster's fumble.

The importance of Auburn not turning the ball over, then, is twofold: not only should it help limit Vandy's offensive opportunities, but it's also kinda-sorta the only way Vandy's found to get stops. Even Auburn will have opportunities against Vandy's defense. If they don't turn the ball over and take advantage of those, they should win the game.

And to that end, I would suggest a heavy dose of the War Eagle formation and other run-oriented tricks. Vandy's run defense is ranked 10th in the SEC in opponents' per-rush, but even that mark is likely a result of facing the anemic ground games of Rice, Miami, and Carolina: the Rebels went for five yards a pop.

Consider that alongside the fact that Vandy's secondary--as you've probably heard by now--are all ballhawking terrors (having picked off poor Jevan Snead four times in only 25 attempts) and it becomes obvious how badly Auburn needs to stick with the run. It would, indeed, be an excellent time for the offensive line to play with the brute swagger they've allegedly been talking about all week; Vandy's got talent but also return only one starter in their front seven. The holes up front for Tate, Fannin and hypothetically Lester should be much wider than the ones Todd finds in the secondary, and the no-turnover imperative makes it readily apparent which ones Auburn should make it their business to exploit.

When special teams are on the field: Auburn just needs to break even, and they should be OK.

As easy as that sounds when you have Clinton Durst, Robert Dunn, and Wes Byrum "Wes Byrum," Auburn hasn't managed it since the Southern Miss game. The punt return team can't give Dunn enough room to even get started. "Byrum" is a proven liability until proven otherwise. Kickoffs and kickoff coverage both still have all the consistency of a manic-depressive yo-yo.

And now, JOY, comes a team with the third-best punt return in the country. If you want my opinion, Auburn shouldn't kick to D.J. Moore. We've seen that Saturn V Durst is up to the challenge or booting 50-yarders downfield and hanging them up in plenty of time to give his coverage a chance to converge; but given Moore's presence and the leakiness of the Vandy defense, he'll probably have more of a chance to play keep-away and rain bombs inside the 20; how well he does that will be critical.

And while it would be nice to get Dunn loose again, even more important is whether "Byrum" gets his mojo back. It was his miss that threw away whatever momentum Burns's introduction and subsequent good play had given Auburn last week; he'll likely have several such opportunities this week and an offense as desperate for points as Auburn's can't afford for him to continue to blow them.

Intangible reason for worry: Boy oh boy, doesn't it feel like everything's perfectly in place for Vandy? They've had a week off, the place is sold out, they just need this one win to get over the hump, and it's all playing out in front of a national spotlight the likes of which Vandy has never seen. Remember a couple of years ago when Rutgers was in the middle of the same kind of "We've fianlly arrived!" streak, hosted Louisville in the big Thursday nighter in front of more fans than those players had ever seen, and won when the Cardinals jumped offside on a field goal try for no reason? Remember last year, when Mississippi St. needed one more miracle to wrap up a winning season, all looked lost, and Ole Miss handed them the ball at midfield for no reason--there's one TD--before Pegues returned a punt for the second score and the win? Weird things happen with these kinds of teams, man, weird things.

Intangible reason for confidence: Three times this season Auburn has come out and looked thoroughly lost on offense. The first two times, they came back the following week and performed, if not brilliantly, at least competently. It seems only logical the seesaw would once again tilt in the opposite direction after the horrorshow last week.

Three Wishes: 1. Kodi Burns; this is a permanent wish until either he gets a start or the offense moves the way it should. 2. Two or more turnovers from the Auburn defense; for all their brilliance, the defense has "forced" just three turnovers in their three SEC games and two of those were absolute gifts-for-six from LSU and the Vols. 3. Something nutzoid; I know the buttoned-down approach is probably the right tack when you've been dealt the superhuman D-wretched O hand Tubby's been dealt, but does it feel to anyone else like this team could use more of the reckless "I know we're on our own 17, screw it, fake punt!" energy Tubby used to bring? An onsides kick, a fake FG, a reverse throwback to Burns ... something to make every game this team plays something other than a 10-7 slugfest. (Though preferably not called on 3rd-and-17, thanks.)

Success is / failure is: A win / a loss. I'm too exhausted by the last three weeks to ask for anything else, even against Vanderbilt. Just win, baby.

Your bottom line: As has been noted in multiple places (Dr. Saturday the most recent), Vandy's total yardage marks--the worst in the SEC by a mile--suggest that outside of their special teams wizardry and knack for the game-changing turnover, this is the same old Vanderbilt we've seen year after year.

Frankly, even for someone who's obviously a big believer in statistics and their ability to predict future returns, that's a little reductive. For one thing, while some of the turnovers and special-teams hoo-ha is 100 percent pure-fried luck, there's too much of it for it to all be coincidence. The secondary's that good, and I don't think there's much doubt about it. I think it's fair to say the value the Commodores place on their red zone opportunities probably helps explain why they're so good at converting them. That Nickson hasn't thrown a pick all year obviously has something to do with their nation-leading turnover margin. And besides, as Philip noted, when you shrink the yardage down to a per-play average, Vandy's only running a deficit of .4 yards a snap.

But here's the thing: for all of their offensive struggles, Auburn's per-play margin (4.7 a play on offense minus the 3.8 given up) is a positive .9--a not-insignificant 1.3 yards-a-snap difference over the 'Dores, and that's with Auburn having faced LSU. The Tigers are, without question, the better team.

The question, of course, is whether they'll play like it. As I think Auburn's due to play a little better and Vandy's due to play a little worse, the guess here is that the answer is yes.

And so, in one final attempt to look spectacularly wrong ...



Auburn 19, Vandy 16

*I knew this guy was named "Diogenes," but I thought he was mythical until looking him up on Wikipedia and finding he was apparently a real dude for whom the lamp-and-honest-man thing was just one detail in a whole list of eccentricities, one that includes public, uh, Onanism. The More You Know ...

Friday preview: Tennessee

Quick programming note: I know I need to get the second road trip post up, but I'd hoped to get more of it finished yesterday afternoon and wrapping it up now might mean no UT preview. So here's this, and hopefully road trip part 2 will show up either later today or tomorrow a.m. JCCW management apologizes for any inconvenience.

Montario Hardesty is quite possibly Tennessee's best offensive weapon, which is why Dave Clawson gave him five carries against Florida.

Cheese Puffery? The last one I managed to complete, yes; it's available here.

At stake: For Auburn, any realistic hopes of bagging an SEC title or BCS bowl bid. Pulling out the LSU game might have given them a one-respectable-loss margin for error, but that sort of luxury is dust in the wind now. It's either win out until the Amen Corner, or start playing for a New Year's Day invitation and good ol'-fashioned pride. Sad, tough, but true.

For Tennessee, despite the noxious atmosphere surrounding the program in the wake of their second straight evisceration at the hands of the Gators, I'm not convinced yet that Fulmer can't once again drag his career kicking and screaming back from the abyss. With the momentum of a win on the Plains, the Tide coming to Neyland, and the remainder of the schedule relatively cushy--sure, trips to Columbia and Nashville and the game against Kentucky won't be easy, but they're toss-ups at worst no matter how far the Vols sink--it's conceivable Tennessee could finish the season taking eight of their last nine, win their bowl, and wrap things up at a blissful 10-4.

Then again, it's equally conceivable--and perhaps even a bit more likely--that road losses to Auburn and Georgia boot the season into a death spiral and the Vols pack it in to the tune of 5-7 or even 4-8. Fulmer's last best chance to steer his team onto the former road rather than the latter comes this Saturday.

When Tennessee has the ball: maybe the band should be cueing up the Keystone Kops theme?

Because, yeah, Tennessee's been that sloppy. Their offense isn't actually that terrible at moving the ball--55th in total offense despite playing 2/3rds of their games against BCS defenses, as opposed to our beloved Auburn Tigers, who sit at 73rd after taking on Sun Belt and C-USA representatives--but it's a wonder they can even walk across the field given how often they shoot themselves in the foot. Against UCLA, the Vols had drives of 51 and 73 yards end in a missed FG and a crushing Arian Foster fumble, respectively, for a total of zero points. Against Florida--in a game in which the Vols actually outgained the Gators 258-243 en route to somehow losing by 24 points--the Vols first successfully drove 72 yards (and ate eight full minutes off the clock) just to give Jonathan Crompton the chance to botch a goalline handoff for a Gator recovery. Then, on their very next possession, the Vols drove sixty yards to the Gator 1 only for Crompton to toss an incompletion on third down and a pick on fourth. Total points: again, zero. Total number of aneurysms induced in the Vol faithful: untold thousands.

Part of me wants to think that the random nature of most turnovers dictates that eventually Tennessee's going to find a way to turn all those yards into points, but most of me thinks that's way too much evidence not to think it's a continuing (and delightfully welcome) trend. It's not like the Vols have been a disciplined team to this point outside of the opponent's red zone; they committed nine penalties apiece in the two losses and rank 108th in the country in penalty yardage.

What Auburn wants more than anything else, then, is to keep the Vols from connecting on the big scoring play. Rhoads and Co. have to force Crompton--in particular--to execute his way all the way down the field and into the end zone on play 10 or 11 of a drive, rather than letting him avoid the killer mistake by scoring long-distance-style on play five or six. I'd be more confident about Auburn's chances to accomplish this if they hadn't failed so miserably at it against LSU, watching the Tigers score from 39, 22, and 18 yards out. Gerald Jones aside, Tennessee won't bring the same caliber of receivers to the table LSU brought, but that doesn't mean Auburn can afford the same kinds of breakdowns in the secondary they had last Saturday.

If Auburn can avoid catching the Crucial Mistake bug themselves from the Tennessee offense, they should be able to keep the Vols mostly under wraps. The Clawfense had plenty of success on the ground against UCLA and UAB but found the sledding much tougher against Florida, averaging just 3.1 yards a pop over 31 carries. Crompton's 5.8 yards-per-attempt mark against Florida isn't awful, but the nine yards-per-completion mark sure as hell is and it's possible even those numbers are a result of Florida's still-questionable secondary; Crompton passed for an eye-gougingly bad 4.5 yards-per-attempt against UCLA.

To be clear, Tennessee's not Mississippi St. For starters, their offensive line is good enough that they're going to give Hardesty and Foster some holes, especially given the way LSU shoved Auburn around for the duration of the second half. It's obvious Crompton has talent if he can ever get his head screwed on correctly and Auburn's not likely to pressure him much; Florida didn't record a sack. After their modicum of success against the Gators, it seems unlikely the Vols aren't going to put together at least a couple of drives. There's plenty of potential here.

Nonetheless, unless the misalignment and conditioning issues Auburn showed last week are more serious than we're led to believe, until Tennessee's offense accomplishes something other than self-destruct against a defense with a pulse, I don't see why we'd expect them to do otherwise.

When Auburn has the ball: it should not look the way it looked when Auburn had the ball against LSU.

Gimpy arm and all, it made sense for Chris Todd to air it out against LSU. Their secondary was--and is--something of a question mark. The run game was going nowhere. They were pretty seriously overplaying the underneath flips and screens that worked so well against Southern Miss.

But the bombs-away approach is not going to fly against Tennessee, not no way, not no how. Both safeties--Eric Berry at SS and Demetrice Morley at FS--were rated as bona fide studs coming out of high school and have done nothing to disprove those assessments; Berry is an All-American candidate as a sophomore. Brent Vinson is the proverbial lockdown guy at one corner and there's depth galore behind him. The Vols picked off UCLA four times, UAB three times, and frightened the Gator coaches into basically skipping the passing game altogether--Florida ran 39 times while only attempting 15 passes all game, and even those only resulted in a distinctly un-Tebow-like average of 6.4 yards-an-attempt.

So, having Chris Todd and his Magical Rubber Arm throw between 30 and 40 passes again, with many of them of the 15-yards-or-more variety? Bad, bad idea, unless you like the idea of Berry dancing 60 yards for a touchdown the other way. UCLA had great success throwing intermediate routes over the middle of the field (thanks in part to DC John Chavis's criminally slow reaction to this strategy, as Hooper points out below) and this seems worth a shot if Todd can make smart decisions with the ball. But it was those kind of routes that got him in trouble against UL-Monroe and off the top of my head, I can't remember Franklin asking him to throw them much since. Despite Robert Dunn's emergence, Todd and the Auburn receivers taking on this secondary is far and away the biggest mismatch in Tennessee's favor. If Franklin makes good on his veiled threats to throw into the teeth of this mismatch anyway, the Vols will win the game, end of depressing story.

Meaning that Auburn has to get of their running game, oh, about 2,347 times what they got out of it against LSU. Although UCLA went nowhere against the Vols, there's hope otherwise; UAB (!) averaged 4.2 a carry on 26 attempts and Florida gained 3.8 a pop (and punted just one time) despite essentially telling the Tennessee defense "Hey, we're about to run the ball" for the duration of the second half. While the Vol front four looks stout, they're breaking in a couple of new linebackers and it hasn't looked like Chavis has put them in the best position to succeed. Theoretically, an offensive line of Auburn's quality should be able to get the likes of Lester and Tate past the front four and into areas where they can pick up some yards.

But, of course, theories only mean so much when 1. over the past three games Auburn has averaged a whopping 2.98 yards per carry (with one of those games against the less-than-sterling Southern Miss rush defense) 2. our best running back--that's Lester--hasn't yet moved out of his apartment over the Indian burial ground 3. our offensive coordinator seems mostly unconcerned with such matters, even if the head coach isn't. The guess here is that Auburn sees more success on the ground than we saw against LSU--they couldn't have less, could they?--but that the mythical, sought-after BREAKOUT game will still have to wait.

And given how badly the thought of Todd throwing one of his patented "This Pass Can Be Used as a Flotation Device" duck jobs anywhere near the vicinity of Berry gives me the heebie jeebies, I think it's safe to say the same goes for the offense as a whole. If they pull off the same two-TD performance they did last week with just maybe one or two field goal attempts tacked on, I won't complain. Much.

When special teams is on the field: Auburn has to win the game.

To be frank, even as good as Auburn's defense has been (second-half vs. LSU sort of excluded) and as mistake-prone as the Vols' offense seems to be, I don't think Auburn's O matches up against their D any better than vice versa. Maybe even worse, depending on how accurate Todd manages to be. I'm not expecting total yardage to lean heavily to one side or the other, in other words, not planning on seeing one team rip off march after march with the other stifled. Down-to-down, it looks about even to me.

Which makes special teams the decider, and that's where we finally get some good news for Auburn: they should flat own the punting contest. Tennessee is 109th in opposing punt returns and 116th--fifth from bottom--in gross punting. Auburn, meanwhile, ranks 60th in that stat despite the Shoemaker abortion from last game, is 17th in opponent's punt returns, and ranks seventh in punt returning their own selves. Assuming Durst is healthy and back to his old (as in "three weeks ago") Saturn V self, each exchange of punts should be a big boost in field position for Auburn. Remember, too, that Tennessee had a punt blocked for a score against UCLA.

Kickoffs are a different story--where have you gone, 2006 Tristan Davis? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you--but in a low-scoring game I can't imagine there will be enough of them to be a huge deal unless someone breaks one or there's an endgame situation a la LSU in 2007 KNOCK ON EVERY PIECE OF WOOD IN YOUR HOME. Kicking should be about even--both Byrum and Daniel Lincoln (he of the game-ending miss vs. UCLA) were money last year and have been curiously shaky thus far this year.

In any case, Auburn's punting advantage should be great enough to declare a Tiger win in special teams. If it's not, well, we only have to look back a week to see what can happens as a result.

Intangible reason for worry: We're all familiar with Tubby's ability to rally the troops when the chips are down and [insert cliche here]; it's not really that much of a surprise he hasn't lost back-to-back SEC games since 2003. Auburn should--should--be ready to play Saturday, despite the potential LSU hangover.

But no one has more lives than Phil Fulmer, not even Phil Fulmer: the Cat Version. In a weird way, I think the pressure's pretty much been lifted from him and his team this week; not a whole lot of people are expecting the Vols to win this game and maybe even fewer are expecting Fulmer to survive the season. Yeah, as I mentioned above, another loss is almost certainly the final nail in Fulmer's coffin--but when the hammer's already in mid-swing, do you really have anything to lose?

Not to mention that, while Auburn lost last week and aren't the prohibitive favorite they'd be if they'd pulled out the LSU game, the Tigers are still a decided home favorite facing a talented, wounded team. Again, coached by Phil Fulmer. The historical trends aren't exactly entirely encouraging.

Intangible reason for confidence: From the Tennessee Cheese Puff piece:

The Vols have also been wretched on the road of late--they've lost their last three away games against ranked teams by a combined 70 points, and that's not even taking the (41-17) beatdown in Tuscaloosa into consideration.

Remember that that was written before Tennessee dropped a roadie against a UCLA team that has since lost to BYU and Arizona by a combined score of 90-10.

Between this sort of road malaise and a team morale level that can't lie too far above "taking our ball and going home" at the moment, I do wonder if Auburn might not coax the Vols into imploding with a couple of quick early scores. It's not likely--"couple of scores" is about Auburn's current ceiling, period, forget the "quick" and "early"--but this is the best-case scenario.

Three Wishes: 1. Kodi Burns. 2. More than the three receptions our running backs picked up against LSU; I know Ben Tate could have grabbed one or two more and that they had plenty of touches in the backfield, but a greater effort needs to be made to get them out in space. 3. Two sacks from the defensive ends; hard as it to believe, that would equal their output from the last three games combined, with both of those belonging to Coleman. Neither Goggans nor Carter have one since ULM. Tennessee is obviously going to be a tough nut to crack in pass-protection, but with as mucg inexperience roaming the secondary as Auburn has, the Tigers must have more of a pass rush from their ends.

Success is / failure is: A win / a loss, though another victory sans an offensive touchdown--very much still within the realm of reality--would obviously not be a whole lot of fun.

Your bottom line: This game, to put it delicately, scares the ever-lovin' complete holy crap out of me.

Because my guess is that it comes down to whichever quarterback makes The Mistake first. They're both going to make one and probably several. But there's going to be one Mistake that's going to decisively tilt what should otherwise be a balanced game in one particular direction. Oh, it's coming.

And against this defense, and with his arm so noticeably unable to keep up with his substantial ability to read and react, God bless him, I don't have a ton of confidence in Chris Todd to let Jonathan Crompton be the one who takes the plunge. I feel almost sure in saying Todd is going to throw an interception or two against this secondary; the question is whether Auburn's going to be in position to survive said interception(s) or not.

They very well could be. The Tigers own a distinct advantage in a punting game that should play an even bigger role in an offensively-challenged contest like this one than it would normally. Last week Tennessee could not break into the end zone against a team that, at worst, is likely Auburn's defensive equal. I really, really would like to think that between Tubby's unhappiness with the ground game and Franklin's alleged shrewedness in not pressing against a bad matchup, Auburn's going to do a better job running the football. And as much as I respect Fulmer's ability to pull victorious rabbits out of losing hats, I respect Tubby's gameplanning ability--particular after galling losses, in what's now a must-win game--a heck of a lot more than I do Fulmer's.

So, basically, Auburn's got enough going for them that if they can get out in front early on, they can press those advantages long enough to come away with the win. But, if Todd throws the early interception ... if the Vols' heads perk up instead of sag ... if the nerves on the Auburn sideline tighten up instead of loosen ... if Crompton and the Vol offense finally feel like they can put it all together instead of watching it all fall apart ... Auburn will be in serious trouble. I wouldn't have doubted either team's ability to make some kind of charge after halftime of Auburn's last game, but this week, with these two teams' current psychologies? Whichever team goes in at halftime ahead wins the game.

That's the guess here, anyway, and if the game was in Knoxville, I'd probably think that team was Tennessee. But with the game on the Plains and with Tubby's murderous rage to deal with if it's not, I think the odds say--still--that that team is Auburn.

And so, in one final attempt to look spectacularly wrong ...



Auburn 20, Tennessee 16