A for effort, but ... Well hey there young feller! Why don't you have a sit of your ol' pappy JCCW's knee and I'll tell you a story about the good old days of September. I tell ya, back in those days, why, you had to pay four whole dollars to buy a gallon of gasoline! You could take a look at a maple tree, and every single one of those leaves would be green. Folks back then didn't even know who'd win the presidential election! And here's the craziest thing--the Southeastern Conference had five teams in the AP top 10! It's true! The best 10 college football teams in our fine country, and a full half of them from our own football league! I'm telling ya, it was a fine, fine time to be alive, not that you two-week-old whippersnappers would know anything about all that with your Iphone 3Gs and your "Max Payne" movies and whatnot. [/"Pa"]
Putting aside the satire, I think South Carolina's loss to LSU and Ole Miss's defeat in Tuscaloosa pretty much confirmed what we've been suspecting since Auburn and Tennessee both took the pipe for good: this just isn't the same SEC of recent vintage. It's not a huge deal--it's happened multiple times before this decade, lest ye forget--but it also means that those dreams we had in the preseason about a one-loss SEC team sneaking into the BCS title game ahead of an undefeated team from the Big East, ACC, or even Big 10 team are pretty well shattered. There's just not enough punch here for that (it doesn't help that the sole candidate to have emerged from those three conferences isn't just winning but to date has totally shredded all comers).
Why? Well, the QBs and associated lack of offensive punch for one. But possibly even more than that, it's that when Auburn collapsed as the SEC's de facto fifth horse in the national race, no one stepped up to take the Tigers' place. Four of those five former top-10 teams are still going strong, obviously; they make up a full third of the country's top 12, which isn't shabby. But ah, you'll notice that not only is there not a single SEC team remaining in the poll, none are even close. Vandy's drawing some AP support and Kentucky's found a handful of votes in both, but there's still a long way to go to get back into the top 25.
And even beyond that, that Vandy team has the country's next-to-worst offense and Kentucky--while certainly deserving more respect for what they've accomplished than they seem to be getting--hasn't beaten anyone better than Big East also-ran Louisville or possibly defensively-hapless Arkansas. Compare that to the SEC's 2007 candidates for "fifth-best team," which included a Florida team featuring the Heisman winner and an Arkansas squad with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones that wrapped up their year by beating the eventual national champion on their own turf. In the West-heavy 2006 SEC, the fifth-best team was probably the 9-4 Tennessee squad that buried Cal to start the year and lost to eventual national champion Florida by a point. In 2005 it was 9-3 Florida.
Suffice it to say, the fifth-best SEC team in 2008 is not going to reach those heights. Looking at "fifth-best" from a record standpoint, Vandy has the kindest remaining schedule but, as mentioned, just doesn't have enough on offense to finish the year with only three or four losses. Ditto for Kentucky, who still has to face Georgia and Florida to boot.
The best hopes for that fifth wheel to emerge in the wake of Auburn and Tennessee's demise were always, in fact, Ole Miss and South Carolina, as shown by the Rebels' win in Gainesville and Carolina's down-to-the-wire performance against Georgia and back-to-back road wins at equals Ole Miss and Kentucky.
But to really break through into the echelon of "quality SEC teams" dwelt in by the 2007-6-5 teams listed above, you have to do two things: 1) break through at least once against the big boys at the top of the standings 2) hold serve against most of the lesser teams below you. None of Vandy, Kentucky, Ole Miss, or South Carolina have done that to date. Yes, Ole Miss beat Florida; they also coughed up home games to Vandy and Carolina and failed to see off a Wake Forest team that doesn't lookas good now as it did then. Yes, Carolina has the Ole Miss and Kentucky games to hang their hat on, but they also couldn't close the deal against either Georgia or LSU and also hacked one up to Vandy they shouldn't have. The 'Dores capitalized on those aforementioned wins by losing to Miss. St. and falling short against Georgia. Kentucky likewise couldn't get over the hump against the Tide and couldn't make their move at home against Carolina.
So what are we left with? Four very, very good teams at the top with a combined 21-1 record against all other challengers. But unless one of Vandy, Kentucky, or Carolina shows us something unexpected against Florida or Ole Miss runs the table (including a win at LSU), those four are going to remain the only nationally relevant SEC teams in 2008. Those "half of the top 10" days, even though they were just a few weeks ago, are far far behind this conference now.
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I was a Bad Blogger and didn't get my SEC Power Poll ballot in on time; what you see below didn't count for this week's poll. But for the record ...
1. Alabama. On the one hand, they survived a patented Houston Nutt upset special, which is not an easy thing to do (as Florida will tell you). On the other hand, a total margin of victory of seven points over Kentucky and Ole Miss isn't encouraging for a run of the table. On the other other, the Tide have been at their best in big games and none of the "little games" they've got remaining--Tennessee, Arkansas St., Miss. St., and Auburn--look as threatening as the two they just survived.
2. Florida. For as much grief as Georgia's deservedly getting for their closing schedule, Florida's isn't far behind: Kentucky-Georgia-Vandy-Carolina and then a worthwhile Florida St. isn't harrowing, but--see above--it's about as tough a stretch as the SEC can produce this season.
3. Georgia. As pointed out earlier this week, Dawgs week-in week-out red zone troubles can no longer be chalked up to pure and undiluted bad luck.
4. LSU. They're making a habit of this "fall behind double-digits on the road, totally own second half, win by a score" thing against the SEC's lower lights, aren't aren't they?
5. Ole Miss. Rebels have now outgained their opponents in three of their four losses, a year after underperforming their Pythagorean by just a bit. In other words: it's time to get those horseshoes over the door adjusted and invest in a different brand of rabbit's foot.
6. South Carolina. Everything that's needed to be said about this incident has been said already, but I have to add: out of all the strange things I've seen in this league in my 30 years on Earth, this is the single strangest one.
7. Vanderbilt. 'Dores took the mulligan we knew they'd need at some point against Miss. St. Better not try for a second vs. Duke if they know what's good for them.
8. Kentucky. Give Rich Brooks some credit: Kentucky never, ever used to win all the games they were "supposed" to win. More than halfway through the season, though, they're right on schedule with that.
9.Tennessee. Eh, whatever.
10. Arkansas. Live by the ridiculous last-minute comeback you die by the ridiculous last-minute comeback, but nonetheless Hogs obviously aren't quite the walkovers they were expected to be roundabouts Week 5.
11. Auburn. Whatever the under is against West Virginia, that's what you want to bet.
12. Mississippi St. Well, we all knew the Bulldogs would break down the functional Tyson Lee into something less than functional eventually. Surprised it happened that fast, though.
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