Friday Thursday preview: West Virginia

The good news is that this guy almost has to carry their team. The bad news is that he's good enough to carry them and probably two other teams besides.

Man alive, remember how this was supposed to be one of the Games of the Year, not only for the participants but on the national landscape of college football? How this was going to be the game that either took Auburn from potential SEC West winner enjoying a good-but-not-great season to national player or shut up West Virginia's BCS title-game skeptics with a bona fide SEC scalp? How everyone in the country would turn away from the World Series long enough to check out two fast-paced top-15 teams battle it out in a thrilling atmosphere?

Nevermind all that now, obviously. Prepare yourself instead for Disappointment Bowl 2008! Loser gets to play Clemson* next week.

At stake: For Auburn, I more-or-less covered this earlier today. It'd be really, really nice to take another step on the road towards Shreveport (or Birmingham) and from the fan's perspective it'd be wonderful for the vortex of PROGRAM IN CHAOS stories to dissipate for a week-plus, but honestly, that lower-tier bowl bid and the three critical weeks of practice that come with it are about the biggest thing on Auburn's table tonight.

As for West Virginia, there's still time to climb back into the polls and all the way into a New Year's Day (or better) bowl bid if they can continue their phoenix-like rise from the ashes of those two early-season embarrassments at ECU and Colorado. Lose tonight to a reeling, legitimately bottom-third-of-the-SEC team like Auburn at home, however, and I have to think that they're both going to find themselves summarily dismissed from any kind of national consciousness and the heat on Bill Stewart turned up to a seriously uncomfortable degree.

For what it's worth--not much--both teams will also have a chance to strike a blow in the eternal, unending Conference Wars. The Big East probably has a little more to lose here than the SEC has to gain. If you care, and you probably shouldn't.

When West Virginia has the ball: they're not going to throw it much. The 'Eers are a stunning 113th in the country in passing offense and 115th in yards-per-attempt; both marks fall short of even Auburn's hapless passing game, and WVU doesn't even have the excuse of playing a difficult schedule, with their five D-I opponents ranking 58th, 56th, 103rd, 23rd, and 82nd in pass defense despite having gotten to face West Virginia. To be fair a 10-2 TD-INT ratio gives them a spiffy overall QB rating, but even that takes a hit when you realize five of those TDs came against I-AA Villanova. This is a grim, grim picture, and it's not affected much by Pat White's occasional injury-related absence--he's averaging just 5.7 an attempt despite getting the benefit of the Villanova numbers.

Too bad for Auburn the running game's such a decisively different story. Despite the departure of Rodriguez and OC Calvin Magee, the 'Eers ridonkulous backfield and senior-laden offensive line are still rushing at almost their previous clips, ranking 13th in the country with 225 yards a game. Pat White and Noel Devine are both averaging more than six yards a carry, and if you round up just a tad, Rutgers is the only team yet this season who's held WVU to less than five yards a carry as a team. These guys are going to get their yards on the ground as long as the oft-injured White finishes the game; their worst performance of the season came against Syracuse, with White sitting the whole game on the bench with a head injury.

There are a few caveats for the hopeful Auburn fan, however, even if White plays all 60 minutes. First, none of the 'Eers opponents-to-date rate better in rushing defense than ECU at 67th; Auburn currently ranks 25th. Second is that the passing attack has been so feeble that even with the ground attack, WVU ranks only 79th in total offense. Their yard-per-play average ranks about 20 spots better, which would indicate that while they're capable of springing the big play, they're not good at sustaining drives. Thus the 605 yards of combined offense in their two losses that amounted to all of 17 points. If Auburn can avoid handing the home team big plays or short fields to work with, it should be able to keep the game in the teens-to-low-20s and within striking distance.

When Auburn has the ball: who the hell knows?

Well, actually, we do know that we're going to both a) see plenty of Kodi Burns, and likely an entire game's worth b) see many more three-point stances and run-first formations. Betwene these two moves, I'm expecting Auburn's rushing attack to be much improved. Like, those first two drives against Vandy-improved.

Even with that improvement, though, it's questionable how much Auburn's going to accomplish on the ground against a surprisingly stout WVU D ranked 37th in the country. The 'Eers only returned one member of their three-man front, but the linebackers (led by leading tackler Mortty Ivy) are one unit that's lived up to Stewart's preseason gushing. Syracuse and Colorado are the only teams that have even approached four-yards-a-carry against the 'Eers thus far.

But ah, again there's some good news: even for all of Auburn's ground-game difficulties, they rank about the same as the aforementioned Orange and Buffaloes. With a better commitment to the ground game, the bye week preparation, Burns playing the whole game, and Brad Lester allegedly healthy again, Auburn should be a much better rushing team than those numbers indicate. It's not going to be 2004-2005 party time again, but this should be a decent game on the ground for Auburn.

In the air, though ... Eh. WVU's stats aren't as impressive as on the ground--they're 59th--but they've improved as the season has gone along (Rutgers is the only team to make even 6.0 yards an attempt in their last four) and of course 105th-ranked Auburn has yet to accomplish anything via the pass outside the LSU game. And we're tossing a guy into the fire who through two seasons has yet to prove himself remotely consistent as a passer.

The forecast from here is for Auburn to dial up a 2007-esque heavy dose of the ground game with the occasional surprise Burns pass. If Auburn can get some push up front against the 'Eers three-man line and if Burns can find his receivers and if Auburn can finish the drives they tossed away against Arkansas--the 0-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio is the stat that cost them that game--Auburn could reach that same teens-to-low-20s scoring plateau. But that's a lot of ifs, and expecting anything more is hoping for the moon.

When special teams are on the field: For God's sake Auburn, keep theb all away from Devine and Jock Sanders as best you can. Because if we don't, this will be a sore spot--they've got a very good punter and it seems unlikely Davis is going to break a big one two games running. As always, Byrum has to be ready to get points out of Auburn's precious few scoringish drives, not that I have any faith any more he will be.

Intangible reason for worry: SEC teams, if you haven't noticed, have not had much luck at all against these guys the last couple of years and if that's because conference pride matters to them, well, it's still going to matter more to them than it will to Auburn. Of course, maybe things will change thanks to Auburn's ...

Intangible reason for confidence: Paul Rhoads. Actually, this is more a tangible thing. If WBGV is right and the offense is going to stick closer to Rodriguez's schemes, Auburn should be even more ready for that than they would be otherwise.

Three Wishes: 1. No WVU run longer than 25 yards; Auburn must make them drive the field. 2. No more than one three-and-out when backed up inside Auburn's own 20; Auburn must make them drive the field. 3. Auburn wins the turnover battle; Auburn must make them drive the field.

Success is / failure is: A win / a loss. This item should be retired at this point, actually, save for the UT-Martin game.

Your bottom line: Flip a coin. WVU's season-to-date has shown that when facing any kind of competent defense, they're not going to explode for the points-a-lanche that buried so many other opponents over the past couple of years. At the same time, at home, expecting them to get held to 3 again (as against ECU) seems to be asking too much. At home, I'd peg them for either 17 or 20 points.

As for Auburn, even as bad as the offense has been, they've still found a way (thanks, defense and special teams!) to score two TDs or more in every game save the Miss. St. debacle, and I do honestly believe the Vandy/Arkansas fiascoes were the rock bottom. Between that slight tick of improvement and some defensive and special teams help, I'd peg them for either 17 or 20 points.

In short, this will be yet another game for Auburn that comes down to the fourth quarter, the final possession, a single play. (Have you realized that Auburn's last five games have been decided by a total of 12 points?) If Auburn makes that play, they win. They don't, they lose. Is there any point in actually predicting the outcome of a single play? It seems like Auburn's due, and Lord knows I hope they are, but ...

And so, in one final attempt to look spectacularly wrong ...



Auburn 20, West Virginia 17; or West Virginia 20, Auburn 17. Ask your coin which one.

*The only other unranked team from the AP preseason top 10.