Um ... not so much

The recent run of optimistic posts will resume shortly. But this one needs the Smiths. Rename it "Football Program in a Coma" and it fits perfectly ... well, except for the murdering part.

A large part of Tubby's job these days is selling fans, players, recruits, admin, etc. on his continued tenure, so I don't blame him for taking the following tack on why 2008 has been so infected with DEATH ...

Tuberville nodded in agreement that Auburn is just a handful of plays away from having a lot better record. He added, "it's the same season we had last year. There's really no difference, other than we made a few plays at the end of the game. This year we didn't make any. We just didn't get it done; didn't finish. We had a couple of balls in the end zone, extra points missed, field goals. There's really not a lot of difference, other than last year we made a few more plays."

... but yeah, it's not quite the case. Auburn has, in fact, made a few plays at the end of games this year. But they came on defense against Mississippi St. and Tennessee, so it's hard to blame Tubby for forgetting them (willfully or accidentally).

Nonetheless, Auburn in (regular season) single-possession games in 2007: 3-3. Auburn in single-possession games in 2008 thus far: 2-4. So Auburn's maybe gotten a little less lucky, had one game's worth more of end-game failure, but it's not like the 2007 team was crazy clutch and 2008's is a bunch of chokers.

More damningly, of course, is that however Tubby might see it, Auburn's just not as good as they were last year. The 2007 team lost only one game by more than a score, for instance, while 2008's lost two. The hardest evidence of the decline comes in Auburn's yardage totals: in 2007, Auburn gained 4.8 yards a play while giving up 4.5 for a net yard-per-play of +.3; in 2008, that number has slipped to -.2.

Chillingly, this isn't exactly a new trend:

2004: +1.8 (6.4/4.8)
2005: +1.0 (6.0/5.0)
2006: +0.6 (5.5/4.9)
2007: +0.3 (4.8/4.5)
2008: -0.2 (4.6/4.8)

There's some statistical noise in the varying quality of the schedule each year--that this year's squad allows less per-play than the 2006 version is directly attributable, I suspect, to the sucktacular qualities of the offenses at Mississippi St., Tennessee, and Vandy--but accounting for those kinds of variable only changes the picture so much. It's not just a few plays here and there. This is the direction Auburn's football program has taken over the past four years, laid out as starkly as it can be.

I fully support another year at the helm for Tubby regardless of what happens at the Iron Bowl. But let's not kid ourselves about to the amount of work that has to be done, to the depth of the turnaround that has to take place. It won't just be about rebounding from 2008. It's about reversing a marked decline that's spanned four seasons now. And while I suspect that in private Tubby doesn't really believe the Season of DEATH is a fluke just waiting for a handful of fourth quarter plays to be completely undone, if he does believe that, Auburn is in trouble.

As Morrissey sings in the video above: I know, I know, it's serious. Forgive me, but there are times even I have to ask: Do you really think she'll we'll pull through? Do you really think we'll pull through?