Don't worry, folks, he's harmless. Well, except for the whole brain-eating thing.If we're applying the whole trend-watching "In" / "Five Minutes Ago" / "Out" designations to SEC poll paranoia, it's safe to say that "Ohio St. makes another BCS title game" is safely Out; "The Big 12 champ is perfect and undefeated Penn St. leapfrogs an undefeated Alabama team," an idea that rather inexplicably picked up some steam in a handful of places recently, is now Five Minutes Ago; and your new hottness, the current In debate, is "What happens if newly rampant Florida and the eventual Big 12 champion both emerge with one loss?" Tony Barnhart tackled that one today and concluded his look at it by ... washing his hands of any sort of prediction and asking his readers what would happen.
Lord knows the the world doesn't really need more BCS title game analysis--I think the only topic more cliched I could write would be about why we need a playoff, and I want to hold off on that until next week--but for the record, unless Florida or 'Bama take the pipe on the run-up to Atlanta or Texas Tech manages to run the table, SEC fans can stop worrying about what's going on with the polls.
Why? The biggest reason is the one Dr. Saturday detailed earlier this week: No. 1 Alabama going against No. 4-at-worst Florida--who seem likely to finally wrest away USC's crown as the designated late-season "playing the best football in the country right now" media darling--is going to be the new Game of the Year. It's going to be hyped beyond hype. In contrast, the Big 12 will offer up most likely the South's megawattage winner against Missouri--obviously not a bad team, but also a team who had two chances to beat one of the South division elites and let one slip away at home while getting flat annihilated in the other. Especially falling outside of the blinding glare of the SEC title game, the Big 12's event just won't have the same kind of impact on voters. If Florida (or quite possibly even a one-loss Alabama) wins by any score other than 3-2, they ride the spotlight into the BCS title game, no questions asked.
Well, maybe one question asked. Though the Harris Poll and the computers have Florida already out in front of Oklahoma, the Sooners are (incredibly) fourth in the coaches' poll, meaning that there might be some mild outcry not to jump the Gators over a team that didn't lose, even if they did just hypothetically beat the No. 1 (or at least top-5) team in the country. This is especially true if Oklahoma (as almost expected) beats Texas Tech for their first major scalp of the year and wins the tiebreak for the South; they might even jump back over the Gators in two weeks if they beat the Raiders handily enough.
But that's the only scenario in the JCCW's opinion in which one-loss Florida even hypothetically fails to reach the big stage, and even in it the glamour and Florida's still-intact 2006 reputation as national-title worthy would win out. As broad as the fanbases for the Big 12 powers-that-be are, consider that Oklahoma had a pretty much equally viable case as LSU for the BCS title game last year: a 10-2 record (same as LSU), a BCS conference title (same), two upset losses to halfway-decent if not great teams (same), and a win over the country's No. 1 team in their conference championship game that even LSU couldn't quite match. Did LSU's much more difficult schedule over the course of the season mean they were the better choice if you had to pick one? Yep. But should a 10-2 Big 12 champ really be just summarily dismissed when compared to a 10-2 SEC champ? Not really. But they were. Because they entered that championship game No. 9, no one made a peep about the slight save for a handful of Sooner fans. The media climate is obviously a little different this year, but I don't think things have changed so dramatically that Florida (and possibly one-loss Alabam) won't again get the benefit of the doubt.
Meaning, again, that unless Texas Tech runs the table, the SEC winner should be safe. And if the Red Raiders do happen to pull it off, well, Florida would be S.O.L. but the Tide would be fine; it's Penn St. that will be facing the ax. For all the talk about how much the pollsters luuuuurve Joe Paterno, they neither hesitates to jump Mike Leach;s team over his after their very first quality victory no took the Nits even within striking distance of the No. 2 Tide after PSU's biggest victory of the season. There's a point at which even the mawkish sentimentality of a LIVING LEGEND only holds so much sway.
On with this week's SECPP ballot.
1. Alabama. Well, the Tide took a half to get going against Arkansas St. But they never got going against Tulane and you see how accurate a picture that was, so yeah, I'm not reading anything into it this go-round.
2. Florida. Can't put the Gators into the top spot when a) they lost a game b) turnovers and missed FGs mean they weren't quite as dominant against the Dawgs as it appeared on the scoreboard.
3. Georgia. Strangely enough, the red zone problems that didn't cost them against Vandy or Tennessee did against Florida. Who knew?
4. LSU. Jarrett Lee has thrown five pick-sixes, which leads the nation. Hopefully these kinds of charitable contributions are tax-deductible.
5. South Carolina. After what he said about Fulmer, do you think Spurrier's wishing deep down he'd get fired so he, too, could join the buyout gravy train? Not now, but ask again after the Florida game.
6. Ole Miss. Houston Nutt is the only coach in the league with a winning record against Tommy Tuberville. Funny ol' world, this.
7. Kentucky. The 2007 'Cats were a hundred times more dangerous. But the 2008 'Cats are the ones who are winning all the games they should.
8. Arkansas. Does anyone really think that if they played tomorrow, the 'Hogs wouldn't beat the pants off of the teams rated below them here?
9. Vanderbilt. [stupid voice] You can DO it! [/stupid voice]
10. Auburn. Step forward: total offense finally improved. Step backward: turnover margin finally regressed.
11. Tennessee. Awwww. Halloween should have been a pro-pumpkin time.
12. Mississippi St. Hey, remember when these guys went to a bowl and everyone thought they were a program on the rise? What a wacky time that was!
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