When we knew

We found out what team Auburn is in 2007 with about 7:30 left in the second quarter Saturday night. The Tigers had the ball 3rd-and-14 from the South Florida 22, score 14-10. A conversion was unlikely, but provided Auburn avoided the sack or a pick, wunderkind kicker Wes Byrum looked more than capable of nailing a 39-yarder (or less). With Auburn's defense having forced two straight punts and looking like its usual dominant self again, the important thing was to take the not-quite-sure-but-exceedingly-likely points and run, and play the defense-and-special-teams game Auburn has become such exacting specialists at over the past 14 games or so.

But it was at this point we knew that Auburn is not going to be the 10-2 team some of us envisioned. Auburn is not going to challenge LSU in the SEC West, not going to extend that juicy "Over the past X seasons, Auburn has the Xth-bst record in the nation" statistic. Auburn is going to have to scrape and claw and belley-crawl with a knife jammed in its teeth for every single inch of field position it can get, all just to reach 8-4.

Because all the optimism and high expectations were based around the "senior quarterback" theorem. Experienced, we all said. Completely healthy again, we were told. Gutsy, no question. The receivers were lacking, the line was green, the tailbacks talented-but-unproven, but with a 100% Brandon Cox we believed we had the glue to hold all of that together well enough for the defense to make the difference.

But on that second quarter 3rd-and-14, our senior quarterback, in his 27th consecutive start, dropped back and under minimal pressure, leaned on his back foot and tossed the prototypical wounded duck towards a double-covered tight end, Tommy "Not Exactly a Jump-Ball Specialist, Brandon" Trott. The Bulls had little problem picking that piece of ripe fruit and Auburn put no points on the scoreboard after a first down at the USF 18.

And that was that. If Auburn does not even have a quarterback who can be counted on to make the safe plays and good decisions--much less a quarterback who makes the incisive, surprising, game-breaking plays--it has nothing on offense. Nothing. In fact, against USF, it had less than nothing. If Auburn's first six possessions of the second half had simply been a succession of three-and-outs and not Fumble-Punt-Fumble-Fumble-Punt-Hideous Interception, Will Muschamp's D might have been able to rescue the whole damn salvage operation singlehandedly. But singlehandedly and with the Auburn O an albatross swinging from their neck? Almost (thanks to some help from a kicker some USF blogger somewhere is surely referring to as D*****t A*******o), but not quite.

No, Cox didn't get much help from his receivers, most notoriously fellow senior Prachae Rodriguez, dropper of Cox's best throw of the night (on the same drive as the pick mentioned above) and a sure touchdown. Cox wasn't responsible for Mario Fannin poisoning his oh-so-promising debut with two backbreaking fumbles.

But the fact remains that whatever hope the Auburn offense had of turning around their 2006 troubles rested with Cox, and he is not going to fulfill that hope. It seems unfathomable that a QB who could be so collected as a sophomore (he failed to throw a pick 40 attempts in Baton Rouge that season) could be so utterly shaky as a senior, but this is the case.

Personally? I think it's a health issue for Cox, though not the one you might be thinking of. I believe the constant pressure and endless sack parade in the 2006 season has scarred Cox for good mentally, to the point that he now feels pressure when none is near, that he sees receivers as open that aren't because he wants so badly to believe that it's a good time to just get rid of the damn thing. MG sucks, but arm trouble or physical fatigue isn't wht's getting Cox into trouble, it's his reads--and the disease shouldn't mess with his ability to look off his first choice or check down when he needs to, should it?

Honestly, though, all the theorizing and rumormongering is pointless. Whatever reason for Cox's backslide, it's happened. After 3rd-and-14 at the South Florida 22, there was no doubt anymore. Which is why I didn't wind up cursing at house pets or tossing items off of balconies after the loss. Auburn is what they are: a team with solid coaching, a brilliant-bordering-on-heroic (in the sports sense of the word) defense, kickers none of us saw coming, and an offense that will have to be dragged forward like a tantrum-throwing, turnover-spewing toddler every step of the way.

Phil Steele was right, and I was wrong. As difficult as it is, it's time to re-adjust our focus, Auburn fans; if we can escape 2007 with four or fewer losses and an Iron Bowl win (gigantic if), this is going to be a successful season. That's all this quarterback and this offense gives us reason to hope for.

Other thoughts:

--I'm torn about the potential for benching Cox. On one hand, Cox is a senior and is trying and if Field hasn't beaten him out already, what is he really going to bring to the table? On the other, Field truly can't be any worse and I worry about how long the defense will continue to move mountains if the offense can't even move, uh, pebbles. (Note that Burns isn't even in this picture. This team isn't worth a year of his eligibility.) I think Cox deserves his shot at redemption through the Florida game. If the Gators eat him up the way K-St. and USF did, it's time to see if we've got other options. Sorry, Brandon.

--I think it's time for Auburn fans to cut Al Borges some slack. 2004 still wasn't all that long ago and I thought his play-calling Saturday was fine, if not better. 17 points in the first half, for this offense against a quality defense ... that's more than acceptable. And as for the second half, I'm not sure how you pin any of those turnovers on him unless you think he's in charge of getting the Stickum onto Fannin's hands. Look at the overtime series (scroll all the way down on the link): 1. A straight-ahead rush with a straight-ahead runner, not flashy but what got Auburn going in the 2Q 2. A nice-looking slip screen to Trott that goes for 15 if Cox doesn't throw it at the back of Trott's head 3. A post that puts Dunn open at the 3, but Cox can't find him. The first is the same call 99% of Auburn fans would have made themselves and the last two are successful calls undone by poor quarterback execution. Maybe you can argue Borges and the rest of the AU staff should have done a better job getting Cox prepared, but ... the's a fifth-year senior! 27 starts! How much coaching can you give him? The bottom line is that Auburn's got way, way bigger problems to worry about than Al Borges.

--The fickleness of fans--2006 was Tubby's best coaching job ever! Wait, fire the bastard!--hurts our general credibility, but occasionally fans have it right. When I read Phillip Marshall's critique of Auburn fans' response to the K-St. game, I thought he had it wrong--this wasn't pessimistic Auburn fans seeing a win in the worst possible light, it was well-founded fear based on what was a decidedly lackluster perfromance that foretold losses, and soon, if there wasn't dramatic improvement. And whaddaya know, here that loss is.

--Time for some credit where it's due: The defense was balls-out incredible again (first quarter excluded, but how bout Muschamp's adjustment-making ability?), Byrum's clearly ready for his fourth-quarter game-winner closeup, the offensive line looked much improved, and I'll even credit Tubby for having his guys by-and-large ready to play against a team I thought they might overlook. (Again, I don't see how Cox descending into full on head-casery can be laid at Tubby's feet.) Even the decision to play for OT didn't bug me much. It's another example of Tubby lacking his ol' aggressiveness, but that that point he and I both agreed that a catastrophic turnover was the more likely result of an attempted drive than an Auburn field goal. It's weak, but that's the offense we're dealing with.