I got nothin', or almost nothin'

So I sat down a little while ago to bang out a post for this afternoon about the changed landscape in the SEC West after Signing Day ... or maybe a Works post if I could find enough good stuff ... or a Sweet Home Hello of Samford, which I've been meaning to do for a while ... or something.

But it's Friday afternoon and every effort I've made to bear down and focus and produce something worthwhile has failed. Oh well. So here's a few scattered thoughts and then I'm out for the weekend:

1. Good for Tony Franklin, and good for Middle Tennessee State. Obviously Franklin was the wring hire at the wrong time for Auburn last season, and it'll be hard to really ever respect his play-calling expertise after he dialed up that "wideout throw on the end around" trick play on 3rd-and-forever against the Vols.

But here's some crazy spit-ballin' for ya: let's say Malzahn has two insanely productive years and leaves to be a head coach somewhere. Meanwhile, Franklin has two insanely productive years at MTSU. Wouldn't this possibly leave Auburn in the market for a successful coordinator well-versed in an up-tempo spread scheme, and wouldn't by that point Franklin again be the most qualified and available candidate who would fit that description? I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'. (For the record, it'll never, ever happen, and I think we all know that. But while we're getting ridiculously ahead of ourselves, I think Taylor will deserve his shot at the OC's chair if AU's offense blows up and Malzahn is hired away.)

2. Not agreeing or disagreeing, but I thought this was a really interesting analysis from Michael at Braves and Birds:

Saban's offenses are going to need to be a little better in order for Alabama to truly achieve parity with Florida. We know that Meyer's offenses and Saban's defenses will be top shelf, so it's quite possible that SEC titles in the near future will come down to whether Meyer's weak suit is better than Saban's. As long as Meyer has Charlie Strong and a pile of defensive talent, his defenses will be almost as good as his offenses. Saban is assembling excellent talent on offense, but if he is going to continue to go the conventional running/play-action route with game manager quarterbacks, he is going to be half a step behind Florida.

I think Michael maybe sells short the fact that Florida's defense was atrocious as recently as 2007 and that Georgia had a phenomenal offense this year without being a whole lot more complicated than Alabama was, but it makes you think ... and wonder if Jim McElwain should watch his back if this assessment looks any more accurate at the end of 2009.

3. Certain reports to the contrary, I think it's relatively safe to say that Deangelo Benton got dumped by Les Miles because of Rueben Randle's hissy fit. First, we've got we've got Miles's "hard, fast decision" statement about it, and second, that timeline of a) Benton reportedly commits b) Randle pitches a fit c) Benton instead commits to Auburn d) Randle commits to LSU just looks a little too neat to me to believe it didn't break down that way.

My question is this: Miles either totally caved to a demand by a high school kid, or the public perception is overwhelmingly that he totally caved to a demand by a high school kid. Is that really the precedent you want your head coach to be setting? I know that can't help but come across as post-Signing Day sour grapes, but you have to admit there's a distinctly Mike Dubosian whiff to it.

4. Every now and again Tubby gets mentioned as a future DC candidate--that apparently isn't happening. A nice reader also e-mailed me to say that Tubby said on-air at some point that he'd be looking for a job in ... the Pac-10? The guess here is that long-term, Tubby winds up being what we've all kind of assumed he'd be ... just too damn good at TV to do anything else.

5. And lastly, I give you this:



You're welcome. Some hoops content likely over the weekend, the last words on the recruiting season hit Monday. Enjoy your weekend.

Up yours, Charlie Creme

The new face of ignorance in America ... or possibly just at the JCCW.

So for the last month I've been checking out ESPN's women's hoops page occasionally, seeing if Mr. Creme here had updated his women's bracketology and wondering if Auburn's perch at the top of the SEC would be enough to lift the Tigers to the top line of the bracket. I checked again last night after Auburn had sleepwalked past a blah Ole Miss team 72-65 (Andy Bitter's got your write-up, not much to say about it) and hey, whaddya know, Charlie had some new brackets up. And Auburn was ... a 2-seed. Across from UConn.

It's the latter part, frankly, that prompted the subject line now gracing this post. I don't follow the women's game quite closely enough to have said right off the top of my head that Auburn deserved one of the two top seeds behind UConn and Oklahoma; maybe Duke's schedule was that good, or Louisville's, or somebody's. But anyone who's tried their hand at bracketology knows what the No. 2 seed across from the No. 1 overall seed in the bracket means: that Creme was ranking Auburn the eighth overall seed in the bracket, not only not a No. 1 but the worst of the four No. 2's. And I do follow the women's game well enough to have known, immediately, that that is a load of horse excrement. A 21-1 clearcut best team in the SEC with wins over Tennessee, Florida, and Ohio St.is not No. 8 in the country. Nope.

Charlie did at least have something to say for himself:

Right now, the battle between six teams for the final pair of No. 1 seeds is packed so tightly a piece of paper wouldn't fit between any two of them. Cal, Duke, Louisville, Texas A&M, Baylor and Auburn come in at three through eight on this week's S-curve. Determining those teams wasn't difficult (although Maryland, North Carolina and Stanford might have something to say on that subject before season's end). What's hard is figuring out the order in which they should be placed ... Each coach of the aforementioned teams vying for a No. 1 seed will be hoping to avoid being placed at the eighth spot on the S-curve, which translates into being placed in the same regional as UConn and, for all intents and purposes, basically eliminates a realistic shot at the Final Four ... This week, that dreaded eighth position goes to Auburn. The Tigers would have been a No. 1 seed had they not lost to Georgia. Instead, Auburn falls to No. 8 in the pecking order, merely a whisker behind Baylor. That the Tigers should be ahead of the Lady Bears, or even Texas A&M or Louisville, will be a popular argument. But for now, the résumé points to the No. 8 spot.

Does it, Charlie? Really? You were aware that even before you'd written this, Baylor had lost two straight, the second of them at home to Texas, right? That both the Bears and Texas A&M were in a four-way tie for second in the Big 12, as opposed to leading their conference? That's enough for you to rank them both ahead of Auburn? Is it?

Initially, that was my only real outrage--Duke and Louisville are having tremendous seasons (even if I think Duke's home loss to Hartford counts against them), so if Creme wants to keep them out in front, fine. But then I decided to also take a look at Cal, Creme's choice for the final No. 1 seed. Here, take a look at these two blind resumes and tell me which one is the top seed:

TEAM A: record 21-1 (6-1), RPI 8, SOS 38, 3-0 vs. RPI top 25, 4-1 vs. top 50, 7-1 vs. top 100, loss at RPI No. 40. Tied for lead in RPI No. 4 conference.

TEAM B: record 18-2 (9-0) RPI 23, SOS 65, 2-1 vs. RPI top 25, 5-2 vs. top 50, 10-2 vs. top 100, losses vs. RPI No. 2, No. 44. Leads RPI No. 6 conference.

According to Charlie Creme, the top seed is Team B, even though they have fewer top 25 wins, fewer wins overall, a worse strength-of-schedule, one more loss, a worse loss than Team A (since it's at home), and a dramatically worse RPI. Everything except the toss-up in conference standing and more total top-100 wins favors Team A, which is--surprise! Auburn--but Charlie likes Team B, Cal, better anyway.

Which makes me wonder if women's bracketology is different somehow from men's, because Charlie's wrong when he says there's a paper-thin divide between these teams: the divide isn't big, but it's definitely there, and it says that Auburn's got the better resume. I'll be watching, Creme ...

Just two thoughts on the Kiffin thing ...

... because it got pretty well beat to death yesterday. But I have to make a couple of points:

1. Color me more-than-a-little surprised by the reaction to Kiffin's bravado coming from Tennessee fans, who by and large seem to shrug off the potential humiliation at the hands of Meyer's world-beaters next year as the cost of doing swaggerin', ball-bustin' business. Joel himself writes:

I’m telling you, 73-20 wouldn’t really feel that much worse than 59-20.

For the fans, who can walk out midway through the third quarter or turn off the game or drink themselves into quick oblivion, this is probably true. But I have to wonder if it's the same for the players, who will have to sweat and toil and remain on that sun-beaten field for every stinking, godforsaken minute of their (hypothetical) embarrassment. Kiffin's willingness to stir the hornet's nest (and the Vol fans' willingness to endorse that decision) when it's the players who will feel the worst of the resulting sting strikes me as naive or unfeeling at best, and downright stupid at worst. Soldiers under the leadership of a general who leaves them needlessly open to attack don't think much about the leadership of said general; if the Vols have to trudge out of the Swamp on the sore end of a 77-0-type beating (don't say it can't happen), I have to wonder what they'll think of Kiffin's motormouth then.

2. Plenty of people--mostly Gators and Tide fans licking their lips at the thought of Saban and Meyer going for Kiffin's jugular--have noted the downside to Kiffin's diarrhea of the mouth. But I think it's genuinely worse than believed since, to start with, there's no tangible benefits to making the statements he made yesterday. Sure, it may have been effective pandering, but how many Vol fans on the fence with their opinion of Kiffin were finally, convincingly swayed by (as Dr. Saturday so memorably put it) "the audacity to invent a rule out of thin air, then call your most imposing rival on it in public." I'm guessing zero. I suppose there's also the ensuing media ruckus and Kiffin's enhanced visibility to consider, but again, I'm not sure how much value is really gained by having every sports columnist in the South simultaneously breaking out the same "Al Davis was right!" joke. Other possible tangible benefits include: nothing, at least that I can think of.

Meanwhile, on the negative side of the ledger, there's the possibility of having alienated administrators and coaches at the same school that just produced the recruit you're crowing so lustily about, making the recruitment of the next one more difficult; the possibility that the occasional recruit will pass on letting Kiffin into his home, lest he later publicly disparage the values of his relatives; the possibility that Saban and Meyer will specifically target prospects they expect Kiffin to make a run at (since Lord knows they've built up enough recruiting luxury and bile by now to do it); the possibility that Saban and Meyer will run up the score to an extent over the course of multiple seasons that the Vols' reputation as a serious contender in the SEC East sustains substantial damage; the possibility, as detailed above, that his players will lose their respect for him for letting his mouth write checks neither he nor they can cash.

Now, do I think any of those possibilities are even remotely likely? Not really. But they're out there. The potential positive value of Kiffin's comments is nil; the potential negative value of those comments, while negligent, is more than nil. So why say them? Whether it's because Kiffin didn't attempt to work that out or did and decided it just didn't matter, I'm not sure it's the best example of the decision-making process I've seen from an SEC head coach. It's a long way from saying anything important about Kiffin's chances for long-term success in Knoxville ... but forgive me Vol fans, for the time being I'm glad to have the leagues' new successful-coordinator-but-poor-head-coaching-record head coach who's got his coachin' head down and out of the way.

A post that's almost about the Auburn basketball game last night

So the Auburn men trailed by 18 at the half and lost by 19 at Ole Miss last night, effectively destroying whatever remaining shreds of hope remained from the win at Arkansas, and I tried to come up with something funny to say about it despite the obvious soul-sucking gloom of the situation.

But I couldn't, so here's a visual representation of something really, really funny coming out of a situation with a certain amount of soul-sucking gloom to it:



And now that that's there, I feel like this post has done enough without having to actually say anything bout the Ole Miss game, which is a relief. Though I will say this: I did not want to have to go through another major coaching search with Fail Jacobs this soon. Miracle Feltonesque SEC Tournament run or bust, guys.

Recruiting wrap: Defense

C'mon, you know you wanted to check out eight minutes of Eltoro "The Toro" Freeman highlights again.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Currently on roster: 10 (Blanc, Clayton, Henderson, Lykes, Ricks, Savage, Wadley, Carter, Coleman, Goggans)
Needs: With both starting DTs moving on and the no-huddle approach likely meaning a deeper rotation, quality depth behind Blanc, Ricks, and Clayton in the middle was essential. Adding a speed rusher to groom behind Coleman and Carter would be nice, too.

Signed: Nick Fairley (Googled), Terrance Coleman, Nosa Eguae, Dee Ford (Googled), Jamar Travis.
Needs met? More or less. Between Coleman, Travis, and Fairley--all of which have at least one four-star rating from somebody--there should be at least one if not two guys who will leave their mark at Auburn before all is said and done. Eguae seems the slow-developing but hard-working type who could pay off big-time at either end or tackle. And in Ford, Auburn seems to have a second edition of Carter who'll be able to explode off the edge after some time in the gym. At the same time, none of these guys save maybe maybe Fairley seems to have the guru consensus or physical profile that suggests the immediate impact that might be needed at DT. To boot, if Ford winds up at linebacker (a definite possibility) and Eguae and Coleman get too big for the outside, the class will end up not having a defensive end in it.

So, happy? For the most part. Losing Pilson to JUCO hurt, taking the group from "definitely a lot of potential" to "probably a lot of potential." But with a guy like Rocker at the controls, exchanging a little bit of certainty and readiness now for the kind of upside exhibited in guys like Ford, Coleman, or Eguae is probably worth it. Ask me again in a couple of years.

LINEBACKERS

Currently on roster: 5 (Barnes, Bynes, Herring, Pybus, Stevens)
Needs: For starters, re-signing Eltoro Freeman after his sojourn to JUCO. After that, bringing in as much depth as possible, preferably guys who could handle at least a few snaps as a freshman if need be.

Signed: Eltoro Freeman (Googled), Harris Gaston, Jonathan Evans.
Needs met? In terms of strict numbers ... maybe not. But I can't help think that given his original recruitnik pedigree and Tubby's dedication to him, Freeman is ready to come in and start every game for the next two years alongside Bynes and Stevens if the three of them stay healthy. Behind them for 2009 it's pretty much just Pybus, the two incoming freshmen, and a couple of guys Pybus passed on the depth chart last year. That's a little scary, but there's probably a couple of guys hanging around the roster somewhere that Roof could turn into competent 'backers if he had to. And long-term, Gaston and Evans are "Tubby's Own" Brand Hand-Selected Linebackers. You know what that means.

So, happy? "Satisfied" is probably closer to it. Finding a second prospect behind Freeman who's a little more prepared to be immediately thrown into the fire than Gaston and Evans allegedly are would have been nice, what with Adam Herring occupying a spot on the two-deep by default. But without Saban-style roster puppeteering it's sort of impossible to have depth everywhere, and I'd just assume have it at a position where I feel confident things will "work out" with Roof on the job.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Currently on roster: 12 (Etheridge, McNeil, Slade, H. Adams, Bell, Cole, Hood, Jemison, McFadden, Savage, Thompson, Thorpe)
Needs: Much like the wideouts and TEs, the size of this group sort of belies how deep it appeared to be last year. (The size coming in part, I suspect, because Auburn's roster lists whatever athletes it doesn't have a secure spot for in the secondary. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of these guys made their way to linebacker, for instance.) At corner, Thorpe and Hood saw extensive action as true freshmen. McNeil and Etheridge saw all the action at safety--Mike Slade took to the field only a handful of times, and didn't look particularly ready when he did. So deep as it may be on paper and as easily identifiable as the starters are--McNeil/Etheridge at safety, some combination of McFadden, Thorpe, and Savage at the corner spots and the nickel--the secondary still needed to be a point of emphasis, so the staff could feel comfortable putting somebody out there long enough to give the starters a blow.

Signed: Daren Bates, Izauea Lanier, Taikwon Paige, Reggie Taylor, Demond Washington.
Needs met? Occasionally I'll see fans griping about JUCO offers, but in the right situation, they can be a boon--sure, Paige isn't likely to set the world on fire given that his fallback was UAB, but if Roof was willing to drag him from Minnesota to Auburn he can probably play a little. Likewise, Washington's Ole Miss commitment and rave reviews from Scout mean that he's a likely first-day contributor as well. If that's the case, Savage could conceivably slide back to safety and every one of the kids that needs the extra year of seasoning--Slade, Hood, Bell, the freshmen--will be able to get it before being tossed into the fire. Add that fact to the potential allegedly possessed by Taylor, Lanier, and even the two-star Bates (who may have had reasons for sliding under the radar), and this group looks capable of providing real depth both immediately and in the long-term ...

So, happy? ... probably. Raven Gray says counting JUCOs before they've hatched isn't always the best idea, and none of the freshmen save possibly Taylor (a four-star to Rivals but a two-star to Scout, the only incoming freshman in the class to have a two-star difference in grade) appear to have the play-right-away goods. Plus, it's possible Washington or Lanier will end up being the mystery breakout guy at slot receiver. As with the d-linemen, it looks like a boom-or-bust bunch that offers a lot of reasons to think "boom"--so, yes, I'm glad with what Auburn's done here--but also isn't a lead-pipe cinch to be an upgrade the way the running backs or receivers appear to be.

CONCLUSION

For all that gibbering, the bottom line is that unlike the offensive class--a combination of Franklin/Malzahn spread weapons and late additions from the Luper/Taylor connections--the defensive class still has a lot of Tubby's fingerprints on it. And as much respect as I generally give the recruitniks, they were never very good at pegging how good Tubby's defenders were going to become. Likewise, superstuds or no, this class doesn't offer much reason, if any, to think Auburn's going to see a drop-off in its traditional defensive talent levels any time soon.

This week in mid-majordom, 2/5

No truth to the rumor Dayton's team colors have been officially renamed "Rabbit's Foot Red" and "Weighted Dice White."

History in the making. Oh, the things I could accomplish if I wasn't lazy. The 10Ks I could run, the screenplays I could write, the car floorboards I could keep uncluttered. And I could do the research to figure out if the Dayton Flyers, 63-61 winners over La Salle last night on a dunk with 1.8 seconds to play, are on pace to have the biggest disconnect between their Pomeroy rating and NCAA Tournament seed in the relatively brief history of Kenpom's ratings.

Because I am lazy I don't know for sure, but I don't have any doubt the Flyers are in the running. After the La Salle win, Dayton's record improved to an eye-popping 21-2. The Flyers are 33rd in the RPI, a solid 7-1 in the A-10, and 4-1 vs. the RPI top 100 with a huge 14-point win over Marquette on a neutral court. They're a 9-seed to the Bracket Board, a 9 to Lunardi, a 7 to B101. By any measure, the Flyers are currently solidly in the NCAA field and should stay that way barring a whole series of upsets down the stretch.

Well, any measure but Kenpom's. There, the Flyers rank 81st, 10 places behind 13-9 Wright State, 11 behind 13-8 UTEP, 13 behind 11-11 Oral Roberts ... and, well, a whole lot of other teams who won't be able to sniff an at-large bid with one of those newfangled bloodhound-nose transplants. Why? One way of putting it would be in Kenpom's statistical "luck" terms, where the Flyers rank as the season's fifth-luckiest team and the only one in the top 10 with serious NCAA aspirations. One would be to simply look at the astonishing run of close games they've had in A-10 play alone: 72-71 over Fordham, 63-61 over George Washington (when the Colonials threw away a one-point lead with a six-guys-on-the-court-tech with 21 seconds to play), 47-46 over Saint Louis. The Flyers have put up that 7-1 mark in the league while somehow outscoring their opposition by, on average, only 3.125 points a game. One other way would be to put it the way the excellent Dayton blog Flyers Fieldhouse put it after the La Salle win:

Now 9-0 in games decided by five points or less. Call it clutch, call it luck, call it what you like. I call it an assload of wins and I suggest you do, too.

I agree, but if that 9-0 run goes much further, I'd really like to ask Kenpom himself or some other non-lazy person to figure out if we could call it "history" as well.

A second bid on the Horizon. I can't even tell you how long K-Dub has been predicting the "next Missouri Valley" would be the Horizon--it's been, like, years--but as usual he's looking more prescient by the day. After UW-Green Bay's not-entirely-surprising upset of Butler Tuesday, the Horizon now has four different teams in the Pomeroy top 75: Butler checks in at 29 as expected, but then there's Cleveland St. at 60, UWGB at 67, and the aforementioned Raiders of Wright St. at 71. The conference as a whole ranks 11th in both Kenpom and the RPI, and is breathing down the MoVal's neck in both.

The point? This is too strong a league for Butler to expect to navigate the entire conference tourney minefield, particularly when those three very good teams will all enter the tourney fray knowing that an auto-bid is their only NCAA ticket while the Bulldogs can rest safely on an at-large. I'm calling it right now: not only will the Horizon go multi-bid for the second time in three years this year, it's only going to be the start of a multi-year multi-bid streak. (I'm very, very sure you'll be back next March to correct me if I'm wrong.)

(I guess there's one hiccup in this scenario, and that's Butler whiffing on their BracketBusters trip to Davidson, letting the Horizon regular-season title slip away, falling early in the Horizon tourney, and then watching their at-large bid get jacked. I don't see any of that happening save maybe that last bit--I'd take the Bulldogs over Davidson right now, and seeing anyone else sit atop the league standings at the end of the long haul just doesn't make sense--but it's not outside the realm of possibility.)

Curse breaker? It's my own personal pet belief that when Tubby Smith finally decided he'd had just about enough of Kentucky fans' bellyaching and cut loose for Minnesota, he enacted his revenge by placing a hideous curse on the position he left behind. So horrible was this curse that it affected not only the man who replaced him, but every other coach in the chain of succession that stretched across the country as a result of Smith's departure. Thus has Billy Gillespie struggled mightily to live up to expectations following Smith in Lexington; thus has Mark Turgeon struggled mightily to live up to expectations following Gillespie at Texas A&M; thus has Gregg Marshall struggled mightily to live up to expectations following Turgeon at Wichita St.; and thus has Randy Peel struggled mightily to live up to expectations following Marshall at Winthrop.

But while Peel is overseeing wholesale collapse and Gillespie and Turgeon tread water (at best), Marshall appears to be finally making some headway in snapping the hold of Smith's hex. Not a ton, mind you--the Shockers are still 11-12 overall and 5-7 in the Valley. But after starting 0-6 in conference play the Shockers have reeled off wins in five of six, including last night's 64-58 victory at Indiana St., the Shockers' first road win of the year. If Wichita can lift their heads over .500 in the conference by the end of the year, maybe it'll be time for Gillespie, Turgeon, and Peel to give Marshall a call and ask exactly what brand of exorcism they'll need to use.

Recruiting wrap: Offense

Phenomenal as this cut is, here's to hoping Tyrik's next one is some sort of mystical feng shui 'do that unlocks the hidden power of his brain cells just before he retakes the ACT.*

Welcome to the JCCW's position-by-position breakdown Auburn's shiny new recruiting class, starting with ...

QUARTERBACK

Currently on roster: 4 (Burns, Caudle, Trotter, Todd)
Needs: Even with four guys on scholarship, Todd's immobility and (probably) spent arm and Caudle's inability to even beat out Trotter for last year's third-string slot meant that taking a flier on someone who could challenge Trotter for the backup job (in this year and future years) would be a good idea. And if a potential heir apparent to Kodi's throne could be found, all the better ...

Signed: Tyrik Rollison, Clint Moseley
Needs met? Look, I'll just come right out and say this: I don't expect Rollison to qualify. The dude's an Army All-American, four-star, top-100, No. 1 most-accurate QB in the country, and his non-Auburn offer list read Baylor, Kansas St., Oregon, Texas A&M. There's a reason for that, and in cases like these the most obvious answer is probably the best one. I'm hoping like hoperson I'm wrong, but I don't see him making it.

That said, Rollison is as perfect a fit for Malzahn's offense as you're going to find and getting a big head start on the re-recruiting process for next year (or two years, if he goes JUCO) is a shrewd move. In the meantime, Rollison's status (and the scarcity of replacements at anywhere near the "heir apparent" level once Ray Cotton decided he was going elsewhere) means it was all the more important to pick up that second, "flier" QB, and Clint Moseley was going to fit that bill as well as anyone. As a prospect who's got the athletic goods to hold his own in Malzahn's offense and might have the small school-sleeper effect going, it's hard to see how offering Moseley in this particular class has more downside than up.

So, happy? Mostly--keeping Cotton aboard would have been the best-case scenario. Failing that, though (and can you really blame recruit or staff for failing to keep things together after that much turmoil?), Rollison-plus-Moseley looks like about the next-best thing, and if Rollison actually makes it to campus this fall ... well, "mostly" happy won't begin to cover it.

RUNNING BACK

Currently on roster: 4 (Douglas, Smith, Tate, Fannin)
Needs: You're reading that right: if you don't count fullback (not for long!) John Douglas, Auburn had fewer running backs on scholarship at the end of last season than quarterbacks. Considering that of the four, Fannin is the only one with the kind of speed and slashing ability the Malzahn Spread Eagle thrives on at tailback, adding one or two weapons in that West Virginia Slaton/Devine mold was a must.

Signed: Onterio McCalebb (Googled), Brandon Jacobs (Googled), Dontae Aycock, strong possibility of David Oku
Needs met? Uh, yeah. Former track star and consensus four-star McCalebb seems like the prototype tailback for this offense ... and if Oku commits, he still might end up being the second-best back in the class. And if somehow neither of those guys pan out for whatever reason, Aycock's blend of power and speed makes him an intriguing prospect as well. The straight-ahead Jacobs I'm not as high on--as explained in the Google post, he appears to be a poor fit for the offense, comes with less upside, and seems to replicate Eric Smith's skill set--but who knows? The point is that the odds of all four of them (or even all three of them, in the event Oku gets chased off by the competition and picks Syracuse) failing to live up to their billing is basically nil.

So, happy? Yes. Particularly if Oku commits, I'm going to wish that Aycock or Jacobs could become an offensive lineman, but this was a position of need and that need was obliterated. With a redshirt or two, could conceivably skip the position entirely in 2010.

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Currently on roster: 7 WR (Adams, Billings, Carr, Hawthorne, Pierre-Louis, Winter, Zachery), 5 TE (Slusher, Smith, Trott, Woods, McKenzie?)
Needs: It's really, really, really unfortunate that with 12 scholarships spread out between these two positions you could make an argument that they were still collectively the biggest area of need on the team, but that's where we stood after last fall. Malzahn's offense all-but-requires an athletic pass-catcher at TE; Trott and maybe McKenzie are the only ones listed here, meaning getting a replacement and/or back-up had to be a top priority (particularly since Trott is coming off of an injury and McKenzie's presence could be required on defense). At wideout there's nothing even resembling a deep threat, and finding a couple of jitterbugs to join Frenchy in the slot was a necessity as well.

Signed: Deangelo Benton, Emory Blake, Anthony Gulley (Googled), LaVoyd James, Travante Stallworth (Googled), Philip Lutzenkirchen (Googled).
Needs met? There's still some question as to whether Benton will qualify (and if he does, how long he'll stick around before jetting off to the NFL), but there's no doubting his physical ability: those who might know say he's in the same league with Rueben Randle. If he hasn't lost his mojo during his year off and he qualifies, he's likely Auburn's best wideout from Day 1. Blake won't come in with anything like the same expectations, but amongst this motley bunch he should find some time on the outside. Lutzenkirchen should immediately battle Trott for the TE spot. And between Stallworth, James, and Gulley, the chances seem good that one of them is an overlooked gem. That's pretty much everything on the checklist.

So, happy? Asking anything more out of the coaching staff would be ludicrous, though if Benton doesn't make it, having to wait another year for that out-and-out No. 1 stud would make things look a little bit less rosy.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Currently on roster: 11 (Berry, Cooper, Coulahan, Eddins, Greene?, Isom, McCain, Pugh, Roseman?, Ziemba, Odom?)
Needs: You kidding me? Looking at this unit on paper feels a little like being a pilot cruising over the Pacific, looking down, and seeing a desperate guy on a deserted island beach with HELP spelled out in rocks.

Signed: Andre Harris (Googled), John Sullen
Needs met? To extend the metaphor, watching this Signing Day come and go with only the two gentlemen listed above signed on was a little like being the guy with HELP spelled out on the beach and watching the plane sail blindly off into the distance. Grimes should be able to cobble together a respectable-to-good starting five, but that's as far as the good news goes. Sullen's smarts (28 ACT!) may help him hold his own if pressed into last-resort service this year, but when you take every single healthy lineman on the previous year's roster and can't even fill out the two-deep, you're in trouble regardless. Expect position switches: with two years at JUCO and offensive experience Nick Fairley seems like the best candidate amongst the incoming class, and in a system like Malzahn's that would tend towards smaller linemen, one or more of the backup TEs (Vance Smith?) might be able to bulk up enough to help out. But yeah, it's pretty grim.
So, happy? Not in the least. Despite the obvious, glaring need, neither staff ever got a lineman ranked higher than a middling three-star into the class, and Chizik responded to the near-empty cupboard left him by Tubby by essentially swapping out Aaron Moore for Sullen. Even if Auburn bats .500 on the Sullen/Harris combo, we're headed for a 2011 season in which 9 of 10 members of the two-deep will be JUCOs or underclassmen. Better make 'em good underclassmen, guys. (Though I guess there's always the possibility of high-profile preferred walk-ons making an unexpected splash.)

CONCLUSION

As mentioned yesterday, the skill-position recruiting couldn't be much better. The RBs look set for years, the WRs (and TE) get a major upgrade, and given the time constraints and Cotton's disillusionment the QBs are as good as they were going to get. If if IF Rollison and Benton both qualify, Chizik and crew will have totally revamped both the team's immediate and long-term outlooks at the skill positions in the space of this single class.

Ah, but with two low-rated o-line prospects signed over the course of two years, we can't have unbridled optimism, now can we? Suffice it to say Jeff Grimes will certainly earn his paycheck these next couple of seasons.

*Hair pic via Fields of Donahue.

Sunshine Signing Day

How did I not figure out that this is the Official JCCW Offseason Theme Music until now?



Anyway, more not particularly organized thoughts on the events of this morning:

Worth repeating: As I've said before and will say again: all Gene Chizik needed to do to have a successful recruiting class was to hold intact what Tubby had already put together. Maybe he didn't score 100 percent on that particular test--good luck, Ray Cotton, good-bye, LaDarius Perkins--but that doesn't change the fact that aside from the academically-questionable Brandon Heavens, Auburn didn't have a single decommitment today. For all of the hubbub surrounding his departure, not one player decommitted as a result of James Willis leaving. For all of the "meh" reaction in many quarters to Ted Roof's hiring, not one previously-committed defensive player decided they couldn't play for him. There was a crack here and there, but Tubby's class stayed upright. We can still call it "intact." That after everything--after the uproar over the Chizik hire and the Barkley firestorm and the Willis departure and an entirely new and still incomplete staff--we got the class Tubby visualized and a whole lotta gravy on top of it is a remarkable accomplishment.

I'm not just saying, I'm just saying. In 2008, with the recruiting year having started with a 11-2 season and continued through a 9-4 season and a bowl win, Tommy Tuberville's recruiting class was ranked 20th by Rivals and 18th by Scout. Their average star ratings were 3.03 and 2.93, respectively. In 2009, after taking over in late December and with the team having gone 5-7 this year, Gene Chizik's first class is ranked 17th and 14th, with averages of 3.21 and 3.07.

(So here's a note for all you Auburn fans convinced Rivals has some vendetta against our team: this is two straight years they've ranked Auburn's players more highly, on average, than Scout. The reason Scout ranks the class higher as a team isn't because they actually think the players are better, it's because their team rankings place a much higher priority--too high a priority, it seems to me--on the collecting of assorted bodies rather than the quality of those bodies. Unless you really think we just signed a better class than Florida did.)

This shouldn't be a problem any longer. It's possible--probable, even, depending on how you read the tea leaves--that Tyrik Rollison will not qualify, and may commit elsewhere after a year at prep school. It's possible DeAngelo Benton does not really have his academics in order and will likewise never arrive at Auburn. It's possible that Emory Blake is a bust, possible that Dontae Aycock wasn't worth the effort, possible that David Oku either will not sign or will not be as good as advertised.

What is not possible after seeing how these recruits have responded to Auburn's current offensive staff is that Auburn will remain deficient at the skill positions, at least as long as this staff is intact. God bless Brandon Cox, Ben Tate, and Rod Smith. Bless them forever. But as long as Gus Malzahn, Trooper Taylor, and Curtis Luper are at Auburn, players like them are not going to be our quarterback, leading rusher, or leading receiver. Maybe not in 2009, maybe not yet, but explosiveness is going to come back to our offense sooner or later. And hey, maybe Rollison qualifies and Benton and Blake are the real deal and McCalebb and Oku run wild, and the answer's "sooner."

Room for improvement. Without question, Scarbinksy's selling Chizik and crew short in this piece on Alabama's domination of in-state recruiting. Given the impossible situation Chizik found himself in, he's obviously done a hell of a job, in-state or out. Nonetheless, K-Scar's basic point is correct: Auburn needs to do better job in-state. Much better. Alabama getting the majority of top-shelf recruits ... that I can live with. The state has more Alabama fans than Auburn fans. So it goes. But the clean sweeps ... those have to change. Next year, Auburn needs to pick off one or two of the Nico Johnsons or Tana Patricks or A.J. McCarrons or Kendall Kellys. As I've said, Auburn doesn't have to out-recruit the Tide, but it has to stay within striking distance. No better way to do that than to break up the two-year monopoly on the state's elite talent, and aside from the obvious, gaping need for offensive linemen, it's the No. 1 goal for Auburn's 2010 class.

Not sure what to make of this. I haven't been following recruiting all that closely for all that long, but it strikes me as a little odd how little consensus there is between the two major services on so many of Auburn's recruits. McCalebb, Rollison, and Lutzenkirchen are the only Auburn signees to receive four stars (or better) from both--even Benton is only a three-star to Scout. But that doesn't mean there aren't a goodly number of four-stars as ranked by one or the other: Rivals likes Benton, Paige, Blake, Aycock, Taylor, and Travis; Scout prefers Freeman, Washington, Fairley, Ford, and Coleman. So in one sense, Auburn's pulled in 14 four-stars; in another sense, they've only got three. And that confusion's not even getting into the fact that ESPN loves Stallworth and James, who both mainline services ignore.

Again, I'm not sure what that means--is this a class that's better than it's ranked, because there are so many players that have star potential as recognized by someone? Or is it worse than it's ranked, because there are so few sure things? What the hell, I'm going to believe the former.

Seriously, I hope Jeff Grimes goes out and starts recruiting next year's offensive line class, like, tomorrow. Seriously.

OK, I'm off to wash the stink of perviness off of me. Tomorrow we'll break down the class and its potential impact unit-by-unit, and then finally--FINALLY--we'll start talking about something else. Like, um ... wait what are we going to talk about?

w00t!

w00t! No, seriously: w00t!


1. DeAngelo Benton

2. Emory Blake

3. No surprise decommitments. Not one. (Yes, Brandon Heavens went to MSU. If he qualifies and winds up on campus this fall, good for him. But if he doesn't, no harm done ... and if Stallworth and James wind up being one iota worse anyway, it'll be a surprise.) Evans and Coleman and Gaston all took looks elsewhere and came back to Auburn anyway.

4. 28 commits minus the two grayshirts (Cooper and Jackson) = 26, meaning that Auburn would have to go a perfect 26-for-26 on academic qualification to run into trouble. David Oku can, in all likelihood, squeeze in if he so chooses ... and the current indications are that he will so choose.

So could it have gone any better? No, not really. Obviously it would have been nice to snag Phillips, and we'll have to sign an entire team's worth of offensive linemen next year, but when you consider where this class was at the end of last December ... this is a stunning victory for this coaching staff. You'll have to forgive us Auburn fans is over the next few days we appear to be drooling slightly while going about our daily business--it's just that the thought of seeing what this staff could do with an entire year to recruit has us all salivating.

Plus: Clinton Durst!

Further analysis to come this afternoon, and thanks again to all who participated in the liveblog.

JCCW Signing Day Liveblog Extravaganza

Merry Pervy Christmas, everyone! Before you hit up the liveblog, let's get you up to speed:

--Apparently Chizik and crew cling to desperate hope just as tightly as we fans do, because it's pretty obvious by the fact that Taikown Paige had his offer in hand and committed within minutes of Greg Reid committing to Florida St. That brought Auburn to 26 official commitments, 23 by the JCCW's unofficial tally. Supasurprise DT commit Josh Jackson might be 24, but with the grayshort talk already surrounding him it's likely he's only a part of this fall's 25 if more guys fail to qualify than expected. I'm not counting him for now.

--Some very bad news for Auburn: Aubrey Phillips is off to Florida St. as expected. I wonder if, despite his connections to Rocker, Jackson is o-line insurance or DT insurance so someone like Fairley can switch over to offense.

--A bunch of faxes are in already; I'll let you scan the Auburn Beat to find them all. That Lutzenkirchen's was the very first into the office makes me happier than it should.

--All right, liveblog, let's do this. Ground rules: no bad-mouthing recruits who go elsewhere, no bad-mouthing your humble Auburn blogger when he struggles with the administrative portion of the liveblog, and of course we all know that any recruits who don't sign with Alabama weren't wanted by Alabama anyway.

Come on in:

Before and After, 2/4

The mid-major show must go on, Auburn fans, even today.

Before



at



Stephen F. Austin at Nicholls St.: You might not have realized this, but ... the Southland's not a bad conference at all, as mid-majors go. Kenpom currently rates it 19th, only one slot behind the MAC (!) and well out in front of better-known conferences like Western Kentucky's Sun Belt or Davidson's SoCon. Add that little nugget to the Southland's excellent NCAA performances the last three years--starting with Northwestern St.'s giant-slaying of Iowa and continuing through Texas A&M-Corpus Christi's leading Wisconsin at the half and Texas-Arlington making Memphis work at least as hard as, say, Michigan St. did--and it's safe to say whichever team comes out of the league tourney is going to be worth keeping an eye on come March.

That team is most likely to be Stephen F. Austin, if the RPI and Kenpom ratings are at all correct--both have the Lumberjacks inside the country's top 100, little surprise for a team with chits like wins over Drake, North Dakota St., and Ohio Valley power Austin Peay (the latter by 39 points!). The Lumberjacks aren't offensively flashy to say the least--even within the confines of Southland play, they're still seventh in the league in offensive points-per-possession, and only two players, senior center Matt Kingsley and senior guard Josh Alexander, average in the double-digits in scoring--but they more-or-less never turn the ball over and play seriously outstanding all-around defense, leading their closest conference pursuers in defensive points-per-possession by half a point.

None of that means terribly much in the larger scheme of things, of course. The Lumberjacks were last year's regular-season Southland champ, too, and were even on the outer reaches of the bubble discussion before going down to Northwestern St. in the tourney semifinals. How likely a repeat of that fate is this year will be determined by how well SFA handles games like tonight's contest at Nicholls St., who lost to the Lumberjacks in Nacogdoches (yes, that's where SFA is located) but have since reeled off four straight and back in nonconference play nearly took down Mississippi St. A win tonight, and at 6-2 the Colonels will be every bit as alive in the league race as the heavy favorites they host this evening.

After

North Dakota St. 81, Oakland 71: This was a closer game than it appears, with the Golden Grizzlies having tied the Bison at 64 with just over six minutes left to play. Then NDSU went on a 13-0 run, and that was that. The Bison finished the game a stupid 21-of-22 from the free throw line to go with better-than-50 percent shooting from the floor. Hard to lose that way. The Summit's top seed now looks extremely likely to come down to the final day of the regular season, when the Bison will travel to Tulsa to take on Oral Roberts ... but I still think Oakland--now with one win over NDSU and a serious challenge of the Bison on their home floor--will be heard from at the league tourney.

YES

If you need any more convincing about Gene Chizik's ability to recruit, just look at who he landed today, according to Evan Woodberry: Clinton Durst, a proven special teams weapon who was one of the top punters in the nation last year in net average, a surefire fan favorite, and a serious candidate to take command of Auburn's punting job this season.

High-fives all around! At least, until we find out Durst's being paid under the table in Chuck E. Cheese tokens or something.

Signing Day: Tracking ...

What yours truly feels are the biggest developments to watch during tomorrow's EXCITING liveblog ...

Phillips, Phillips, Phillips. Durstgate aside, Chizik and crew are pretty much bulletproof as far as criticism goes for this recruiting cycle--salvaging a top-20 class out of the morass of the Franklin firing and Tubby's departure would be quite the feat, actually--but if there's one thing we might end up pointing to as a failing when all is said and done, it's arriving to find a program with lonely Andre Harris standing by as the only offensive line commitment over two classes ... and then, amidst all the other successes of all stripes, adding just a single lightly-regarded hometown prospect to keep him company.

Viewed on his own, out of context, Aubrey Phillips isn't exactly a make-or-break guy: sure, lots of shiny offers and four stars from Rivals, but Scout's more excited about Harris and ESPN barely keeps him out of the tackle ratings' triple digits. Plus, like both Harris and John Sullen, Phillips is a behemoth who might not adapt very quickly to Malzahn's preferred offensive tempo.

But we have to look at things in context, and that context is entering this season without a single underclassman capable of seeing the field on the offensive line. Phillips might be able to change that. We need him, and if I'm not mistaken (I always could be) we need him bad.

Numbers. Things might not be as tight as they looked a couple of days ago--according to Philip Marshall (and on a link outside the paywall), Jamontay Pilson has joined the ranks of the signed-and-placed, and Charles Goldberg is confirming previous reports that Brandon Heavens is likely to either go the JUCO route or decommit entirely. Subtract the always-subtractable Tyler Knight, and that leaves Auburn's commitment total at 22.

Dontae Aycock should be No. 23, but unless Auburn pulls in Blake and Phillips and David Oku or some other surprise commitment and no one decommits and everybody qualifies--whew!--surprise grayshirts aren't going to be an issue. (Oh, that everyone could say the same.)

Blake, Blake, Blake. I'm not as worried about the receiving class as some. Guys like Travante Stallworth and LaVoyd James are always going to be undervalued by the gurus because of their size, and Lutzenkirchen's likely to do a lot more pass-catching than run-blocking in Spread Eagle 2.0. Besides, with Trooper Taylor aboard, it's quite possible guys like Hawthorne, Zachery, Billings, etc. will finally start playing up to their physical potential and give Auburn the threats we're convinced we don't have.

Nonetheless, grabbing at least one prospect with both the size and speed to be a deep threat on the outside would be a huge help. Who knows if Emory Blake could be that guy, but at least he'd give Auburn a shot at "that guy" in this class, whereas the current chances are ... zero.

'Backers. Greg King is all but gone to Tennessee, Harris Gaston is at least considering Mississippi St., and Jonathan Evans, family connections and all, at least listened to what Tennessee had to say last weekend. With Freeman on campus already, a couple of prospects in the class (Dee Ford, Brandon Jacobs) who could switch to LB if necessary, and a reasonable amount of depth returning, Auburn could absorb one whiff/decommit, maybe even two. But striking out on all three of those guys would leave things perilously thin at LB going into next year, particularly if some of the younger guys--Adam Herring, Da'Shaun Barnes--just aren't up to playing at this level.

Tubby. I don't have ESPNU and so won't watch the all-day coverage--holy hell, I think I'd have to dip myself in a vat of Purell before and after to pull that off--but if he makes it on to ESPN2, I'm curious to get my own first impression of his mad TV skillz.

That's it. See you at around 9 (central!) tomorrow and we'll go to work putting all of this rotten business behind us.

Google surveys the recruits: Philip Lutzenkirchen

Because someone needs to do the work of plugging in a given Auburn commitment's name into Google and synthesizing the tidbits of information that trickle out. Previous entries in this series here.



I've held off on surveying Lutzenkirchen for several reasons. For starters, I didn't want to just go out and do all the really good recruits to start with ... sort of like eating one's green beans before finishing one's steak at dinner, so to speak. Second, being the worry wart I am, I get more anxious about the top-rated guys getting stolen away than the rank-and-file recruits. And thirdly, would you be all that excited about typing "Lutzenkirchen" as often as I'm about to?

But now it's the day before Signing Day, and since 1) as far as I can see, Lutzenkirchen's as solid as ever 2) we could all maybe use a reminder that even if things don't go as well as we'd like over the next 24 hours or so, we've got some real gems coming in ... it's time.

Basics: Lutzenkirchen is a tight end recruit through and through, but if you've watched his highlight film he seems to line up split wide as often as he does at the line of scrimmage, so perhaps a kind of TE/WR designation might be more accurate. He's listed as 6-4 and 240-245, though ESPN offered that on film Lutzenkirchen is "nowhere near" that tall. Maybe he's grown into it? Whatever. The stats: 72 receptions his senior year at Lassier (Ga.), 1,000 yards, seven TDs. 40 time is listed at 4.75, so we're probably looking at something closer to five seconds ... which might matter if the dude wasn't already 6-4 and 240-245.

Recruitnik hoo-ha: Man, does Rivals love this kid. Four stars, 5.8 rating, the No. 3 "best athlete" at TE, the No. 1 hands at TE, the No. 3 TE overall, the No. 172 spot on their overall top 250. They even said something nice about his blocking. Yes, I think it's safe to say they like this pickup for Auburn.

Scout's only a little less enthused: four stars and the No. 8 TE designation. ESPN's somewhere in the same area, giving him a low four/high three grade of 79 but ranking him the No. 6 TE. They write:

(N)ot very physically imposing, but he's fun to watch once the ball is snapped. He's a good receiver with a flair for the big catch. Displays wonderful body control and concentration, and makes some very impressive one-handed grabs. Has good hands overall ... He may not prove to be a consistent field-stretching threat, but he can make linebackers and safeties pay if they aren't careful ... He comes across as a player whose effort and playmaking ability will trump anything he's missing physically.

If you look at a consensus across all three services, Lutzenkirchen ranks alongside McCalebb and Rollison as the highest-rated prospect in Auburn's current class. He has the offers to match, as well: Florida (according to Rivals), Alabama, Florida St., Clemson, etc. He shouldn't miss.

Links of potential interest: I'm not sure, maybe you saw this?



Yes, that's Mr. Lutzenkirchen making the ridonkulous lateral to a teammate for the TD. Moves like that, I'm surprised he didn't commit to Boise St. More on the catch, its ESPN airing, and a few frightening quotes in those dark post-Franklin days are available at the AJC.

Nice as that is, this video--ganked off ESPN carefully put together by a neutral, totally-not-creepy college football fan who just enjoys helping out here and there--is a little more helpful in showing off Lutzenkirchen's overall skill set (audio possibly SFW, definitely NSF brain):



Also, if Lutzenkircehn's football career doesn't work out, he might have a future running the high hurdles as it turns out.

It's much easier to read now than when it came out, but this article on the rush of recruiting attention from other schools in the wake of Tubby's departure is still an interesting look at how nutzoid the recruiting process can get for a guy like Lutzenkirchen. My favorite quote is this one:

"I think there is something about the lifestyle and atmosphere in Gainesville I'm still not comfortable with yet" Lutzenkirchen said.

Awesome.

One problem with the miracle catch: it makes sifting past the innumerable references to it out there on the Internet to find non-catch-related material difficult. I can tell you that Lutzenkirchen made the AJC Super Southern 100 and was first-team All-State in Georgia; he has a lot of Facebook friends, as this depressing Palm Beach Post article on exactly how creepy recruit-stalking is becoming will tell you; he caught the winning touchdown pass at something called the Offense-Defense All-American Bowl.

What conclusions we might draw, if any: Given Auburn's desperate need for someone, anyone, who can actually split wide and hang onto the @#%$ ball, I don't think it's an exaggeration to say a blue-chip receiver like Lutzenkirchen might very well be--save maybe Rollison, if he qualifies, or Phillips, if he commits--the most important recruit in the class. As long as he stays healthy, Lutzenkirchen is going to see the field--contrast the one-handed grabss in the video above with the plague of drops that have hampered Auburn's receiving efforts the past few seasons, and it's hard to see how he won't make some kind of immediate impact. How does Philip "Not a Blocking Tight End, But I Couldn't Possibly Care Less When He Makes Catches Like Those" Lutzenkirchen sound?

Liveblog!

The people have spoken: the JCCW will host its second-ever* liveblog tomorrow, starting at 9 central or possibly sooner if I feel like I've got a handle on the CoverItLive software thingamajigs before then. Final post on what we'll be tracking during said liveblog this afternoon.

All topics will be open to discussion and all are encouraged to attend, except for anyone who responds to a recruit signing elsewhere with some version of "We didn't want that guy anyway" or similar bile. If you cannot help but react that way, the comment threads at al.com are ready when you are.

*You almost certainly missed it--actually, I know you missed it--but the JCCW also liveblogged the 2008 BracketBusters. Ratio of hours spent typing that day to reader comments: 8.5-to-1. A smashing success! So of course I'm doing the same thing this year.

BracketBusters match-ups released

It's all out in front of you, Edwin Ubiles.

Kyle's got the full list. Immediate reaction:

Siena, and TV viewers, are your big winners. Gee, think anyone'll be interested in that Butler at Davidson match-up? Combine the Stephen Curry megawattage with Butler's long-term pedigree of quality and that's got to be the biggest match-up in BracketBusters history right there. Crank up the Nielsen boxes!

So it's nice for that reason, but pairing those two teams also means that Siena gets the next-best thing at home: Northen Iowa, current runaway leaders of the Bizarro Valley and a certified scalp for the Saints' at-large resume. If the Saints can knock off the Panthers and continue to ride roughshod over the MAAC, they should have the goods to make the MAAC a potential two-bid league for the first time since Manhattan went at-large in 1995. It's all there for the taking, Saints.

How much credit can Utah St. get? On paper, the Aggies likewise got a big boost to their at-large hopes by being handed a potential road victory over a St. Mary's team that was ranked in the polls' top-20 as recently as last week. In the real world, however, St. Mary's has spent their last three halves looked utterly adrift without Patty Mills, who's not going to be back in time of this game. So it becomes almost a lose-lose proposition for Stew Morrill's bunch: win, and it doesn't really count because the Gaels didn't have Mills. Lose to the same group of players who got skunked up in Portland last weekend, and it becomes a huge black eye. If USU wins and Mills returns in time for a WCC tourney run and a subsequent boost to Utah St.'s computer numbers-slash-record vs. Tournament teams, then the Aggies will be able look back on this year's BrackBusters experience with fondness. Otherwise, they're going to look at what Siena got or what they could have faced had Mills stayed healthy, and curse the fates.

Also boned: the CAA. Their chances were never, ever going to be good, but there was one scenario in which Northeastern wedged their way into at least the at-large discussion: a major-conference bubble collapse, a one-loss CAA record, Providence continuing to light up the Big East ... and a big BracketBusters win. Instead, of the three teams the Colonial front-runners will end up visiting--Nevada, Creighton, and Wright St.--NU got handed the least sexy of the three. Wright St.'s a solid team that's played really well of late and (along with UW-Green Bay) will be a serious threat to steal the Horizon auto-bid. But they're not going to do a thing for Northeastern's at-large resume. Sorry, Huskies. (I will say this: both George Mason at Creighton and VCU at Nevada are phenomenal games I can't wait to watch. They just won't have any bearing on the longshot hopes for a bid.) UPDATE: Not surprisingly, the indispensable Michael Litos has some (righteously angry) thoughts on the Colonial's BracketBusters hosing at Regarding the Underdog.

Two other TV games I'm so watching: Boise at Portland St.--the Vikings were my preseason No. 1 "15-over-2/14-over-3 shocker" candidate, but after a two-loss road trip to Montana it looks now like they won't even be the favorites for the Big Sky's auto-bid; it would be very reassuring to see them flash some of the magic that took down Gonzaga earlier this year. Illinois St. at Niagara--just to see exactly what the hell is up with the Redbirds, who were the clearcut No. 2 team behind the Drake miracle team in last year's Valley, returned everybody, went undefeated in their Charmin-soft nonconference slate ... and have since been just another random UNI chaser, indistinguishable from Evansville or Bradley or equally-disappointing Creighton. What's going on?

Non-TV games I would watch if I could: North Dakota St. at UW-Milwaukee--how you can send Ben Woodside and Co. to take on one of the rising teams in the risingest conference in mid-majordom and not put them on television is past me. Missouri St. at Tennesee-Martin--Dude, Lester Hudson. Come on. Cleveland St. at Wichita St.--Gregg Marshall's Shockers are finally showing signs of life and the Syracuse-slaying Vikings are dangerous, if nothing else. Should be a good one.

A.M. update

Busy evening last night. As you've probably already heard by now, Donte Aycock appears headed to Auburn after the AJC reported Tech had yanked his scholarship offer. Big news, but just as big is that Auburn won't be getting either Corey Gaines or Johnnie Farms, who committed and recommitted to Ole Miss and North Carolina, respectively. (Oh, and Tracy Moore recommitted to Okie St., but that wasn't a shock.) A little bit earlier in the day, AuburnUndercover reported that Greg King will in all likelihood choose Tennessee over Auburn.

The upshot of all of this: if Farms was ever really that close to committing to Auburn, he's the one that hurts. All of Auburn's offensive line eggs now appear to be in Aubrey Phillips's basket, and given that Phillips may very well be on his way to Florida St., this is a dangerous place to keep them. Given the depth of Auburn's defensive tackle class--a reason Gaines cited in picking Ole Miss--it might even be fair to say that the worst part about Gaines's choice is that his presence would have made it more likely Nick Fairley could switch over to the offensive side of the ball.

As for Aycock, well, Rivals likes him although Scout and ESPN have him more in the "upper three-star" range. The question, of course, is why Auburn offered yet another running back when McCalebb and Jacobs are already in the fold and David Oku appears on the verge of signing up as well. If both Aycock and Oku commit, that's four running backs--three of them four-star recruits to at least one service--and possibly only two offensive linemen (both low-end three-stars) in the class. I suspect I'm not alone in thinking "You know, that ratio looks sort of backwards." The positive spin is that it's virtually impossible for Auburn to whiff on all four of those guys--someone from this class is going to end up being the real deal at tailback--but man, I'd feel a lot better about it if I felt like they were going to have someone worthwhile to block for them three seasons from now.

King would have been a nice addition to our linebacker depth, but with with Eltoro Freeman, Harris Gaston, and (fingers crossed) Jonathan Evans already in the class, it's not a backbreaker.

Back on track, off the rails

Just so there's no confusion. That was quite the hangover the Auburn women's team apparently had to deal with after the intoxicating Tennessee victory: it extended to three halves in Baton Rouge yesterday, after which the Tigers had (as you know) lost to Georgia and were then trailing LSU 28-23 after their lowest-scoring half of the year.

Of course, the nice thing about this Auburn team is that as soon as the hangover went away, they went right back to being what they've always been: really, really freaking good. Like, immediately--Alli Smalley hit three threes in three shots (she finished 5-for-5 from deep) and off they went, 11-point road win over a team previously 5-1 in the SEC, Fortner's first win in Baton Rouge, la de da de da. Bonner didn't even hit 20 points--she only had 18 and 9, which for her is a fairly serious off-night--and the second half was a cruise anyway. As if they hadn't proved it already, but: if this team is shooting straight, no one else in this league is going to stop them.

Elsewhere, Baylor went down to Texas, so at least Auburn's in front of the Bears ... though they are still a rather mysterious sixth in the AP polls.

Jinx. I knew better than to write positive things about Auburn's men's hoops team. I knew it. I knew they'd turn around after that post and slink back to being the exact same bunch of teases they've always been under Lebo. I wrote it anyway. Oh well.

At least the style of collapse last Saturday was interesting, what with the team's senior point guard and leading scorer showing up at Beard-Eaves not long before tip-off for the following reported reason:












I hope that cleared things up. Strangely enough, Reed's absence wasn't particularly felt on the offensive end: Auburn wound up shooting 50 percent from the field and a healthy 43 percent from beyond the arc. But on the defensive end ... well, 10-of-17 shooting from Vandy from 3 and enough trips into the lane to shoot 31 free throws on Auburn's home court should tell you all you need to know. And so Vandy snaps their four-game SEC losing streak, Auburn absorbs their second-most embarrassing loss of the year--only the drop to Mercer made less statistical sense--and the Tigers' record dips to 2-4 in the SEC.

And in the end both Auburn's teams, as it turns out, are right back where we expected them to be a couple of weeks ago.

Liveblog?

Question for you JCCW loyalists out there: would you be interested in a liveblog of Signing Day? Something along these lines or these lines or these lines? Start it up around, say, 9 CST and go to, uh, whenever? It'll be like getting together with your friends to watch election returns, except you'll be getting over the Internet with me and a whole other bunch of total strangers, and this is about something that actually matters.

So let me know. Auburn basketball post coming along sometime this afternoon; real life has been interrupty today.

Recruitnews

So the big final weekend came and went, unlike the always-elusive, potentially-mythical Rueben Randle, who apparently was instructed by Ramgod to drop even the pretense of visiting Auburn and neither came nor went.

As Randle would have been sight-seeing at the most, this ended up only about the eighth-most important development of the weekend. The others, in point-by-point form:

Washington. Auburn got commitment No. 25/24 when JUCO athlete Demond Washington gave Ole Miss the stiff-arm and said he'd come to Auburn. He'll have three years to play two. Washington is yet another sub-6-foot burner, and like Eltoro Freeman has a rare disconnect between his two guru ratings: Rivals sez three stars, but Scout projects him as a lockdown corner and gives him five stars. Regardless of which service has him better pegged, pinning down a guy who has the potential to walk into the two-deep at corner from Day 1 is huge get for the secondary.

Oku. As both Auburntron and the Pigskin Pathos have detailed (the latter with some not-entirely-inappropriate indignation), the No. 1 "all-purpose" back in the country got the incoming savior treatment from the fans at the Auburn-Vandy basketball game Saturday. Who knows, maybe it made a difference: Oku now says he's going to decide after Signing Day so as to not rush a decision he's weighing carefully. Between that and his glowing comments about Malzahn's offense, it's safe to say Oku's at least giving Auburn a long, hard look. Oku won't make or break the class--Onterio McCalebb is a similar RB and is rated just about as highly, and of course Fannin's the likely No. 1 for two more seasons--but landing another guy with a serious chance at becoming the next Auburn running back superduperstar would obviously be very, very nice.

Phillips, Farms. Auburn hosted two committed-elsewhere offensive linemen over the weekend, Aubrey Phillips and Johnnie Farms. Frankly, Auburn really, really needs to land one of these guys: finishing the class with only two offensive linemen, both of which are expected to need a redshirt, a year after taking on zero offensive linemen is begging for trouble down the road. Sorry, Auburn students, but I wish you'd brought some signs that said "AUBurn for AUBrey" or something like that instead of spreading the Oku love.

At least in the world of free information, I don't know if anyone knows what Farms thought of his visit; he didn't leave comments with either Tate or Bitter onsite. Phillips appears to be plenty ready to abandon his Tennessee commitment (unless his idea of "shocking" everyone with his decision is staying with the Vols) and seems genuinely warm to the possibility of following his high school teammate (Daren Bates) to the Plains. But: ESPN is reporting that Phillips is also very, very interested in Florida St. and my extremely-inexperienced reading of the tea leaves is that he wasn't as impressed with his visit as we might hope. Fingers crossed, but the guess here (for whatever that's worth) is that he's a Nole. UPDATE: Courtesy EDSBS, Farms has had one very interesting recruitment process to date. UNC has to be the favorite, but if Farms enjoys changing his mind so much, maybe he'd be willing to change it one last time?

Gaines. The other four-star weekend visitor at Auburn, Corey Gaines says his trip to the Plains and talks with Tracy Rocker "confused" him after he'd essentially decided on Ole Miss. That's good news, but whether it's good enough news for Auburn, we'll have to wait. With Jamar Travis, Jamontay Pilson, Terrence Coleman, and Nick Fairley already in the fold, Gaines would give Auburn a heck of a class at defensive tackle.

Others. Amongst those with offers, Georgia Tech QB/RB commitment Dontae Aycock showed up, as did Okie St. WR/TE commit Tracy Moore and Memphis linebacker Greg King, who's apparently choosing between Auburn and Tennessee. In the "not offered" category, there's former Minnesota (i.e. Roof) CB commit Taikwon Paige, long snapper Charlie Knipper, and Scranton's own Mike Eargle, an athlete from Lackawanna Community College. I wonder if he ever heard Michael Scott give a guest lecture?

Aycock looks like a potential steal--he's a four-star at Rivals and fits the short-but-with-speed-to-burn profile of Malzahn's RBs--but I wonder if there'd be room in the class for him, Oku, and McCalebb. King would add some nice depth at linebacker. I'm guessing the other guys (save maybe Moore, who seems mostly committed to Okie St. anyway) are fallback options.

Heavens. Jay Tate wrote the following this morning:

A trio of Auburn commitments -- LB Harris Gaston, CB Izauea Lanier and ATH Brandon Heavens -- took official visits to Mississippi State last weekend. Lanier and Gaston told AuburnSports.com that they're still completely faithful to the Tigers. Heavens could not be reached for comment. Are you see a recurring theme here? Heavens twice missed scheduled official visits to Auburn. I don't think he's in the Tigers' plans any longer.

One of those visits was supposedly missed because Heavens's coach wanted him to focus on some academic issues, so there's potential grade hiccups here as well. Losing Heavens would be a blow, as he carries more consensus guru-approval than any other wide receiver currently in the class, but hardly a devastating one when Stallworth and James and Gulley and a hopefully-healthy Pierre-Louis all share much of the same skill set. Then again, unless Auburn lands Emory Blake--who's been running silent the last couple of weeks--this receiving class is going to look awfully thin on paper.

Finally, the numbers. First, since Tyler Knight's a sign-and-place prospect, Auburn's really only at 24 commitments presently. Since it seems likely that either Heavens or at least one other prospect currently committed signs somewhere else--one of the Tennessee-visiting contingent?--that's probably got us down to 22 or 23, and then grades will unfortunately, probably cut another guy or two. Bottom line: Auburn can probably take three or four more commitments and not have to pull the ol' grayshirt switcheroo on anyone. But if 29 or 30 guys fax in their LOIs on Wednesday, it's going to make for a nervous summer.

Buffalothoughts

Between the Turner Gill saga, not one but two recent Before and After appearances, and even a road trip that took me through the Western New York area, it feels like I've spent way too much time thinking about Buffalo recently. I really wish ESPN2 had picked a different mid-major spotlight game for yesterday afternoon than the Bulls hosting woeful Toledo. But they didn't, and I'm not not going to watch a Saturday afternoon mid-major spotlight game on ESPN2, so you're getting some Buffalothoughts. Enjoy?

Yep, this kind of game.

Yeeeeeeeesh. Make no mistake: they may have won, 56-43, but for a team supposed to be the front-runner for a decent conference's league title and maybe even on the fringe of bubble discussion, Buffalo played a giant howling dog of a game. If they'd offered up that kind of dead fish-performance against a team that wasn't No. 283 in the most recent Pomeroy ratings--or even offered it up against the same team, but on the road--they'd have lost, and lost badly.

To wit: 30 percent shooting. 6-of-22 from beyond the arc against a team not particularly interested in defending the 3. A 2-for-12 stinker from leading scorer Rodney Pierce. A second-half scoring drought that went three seconds shy of seven minutes. Several "Bad D'antoni Suns" possessions where the correct instinct to push the ball in transition led to an incorrect decision to launch a quick jumper with a heel on the three-point line. And all this came at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the league! Sorry, Bulls, but if we take yesterday's performance at face value, you don't belong anywhere near an NCAA bracket.

There's a few reasons to think this was an anomaly, though. After a whole string of stellar outings--winning five straight against the entire rest of the top half of the league, three of them coming on the road, is no mean feat--the Bulls were likely due for an off-night. And to be fair, the shooting was about the only thing that was really off. Buffalo played some really energetic defense, obliterated the Rockets on the boards--18 offensive rebounds to 8--and only turned the ball over 8 times.

To boot, what you can't tell from the box score is that the Bulls did mostly play intelligent offensive basketball--particularly in the second-half drought, the Bulls attacked the Toledo zone exactly the way they should have. Dribble past the first defender, smart interior pass, kick-out when the defense converged to a wide-open three-point shooter. Too bad the Bulls couldn't have hit the broad side of a barn floating in the ocean. Or something. Combine the Bulls' rebounding and defensive tenacity and caution with the ball--rare is the game when a team takes 17 more shots and 10 more free throws than their opponent--with a shooting performance as abnormal from a positive perspective as this one was from the negative, and maybe the Bulls could hang with the right power-conference team.

That's a vigorous maybe though. Here's the stunner--the Bulls, bricks and all, aren't just tied for the MAC lead in defensive points-per-possession: they're tied with Miami for the league lead in offensive PPP as well. If the team we saw yesterday--better than they showed, but whose offensive ceiling is only going to be so high--really is the best the MAC has to offer, that five-year NCAA-victory drought is almost certainly going to extend by another year.

Anything to add about particular players? Not really. Big man Vadim Fedotov came off the bench and had some nice plays, but he had the benefit of playing against Toledo. Pierce was supposed to be the main individual attraction, and frankly he was terrible--wide-open bricked threes, bad decisions in transition, a 1-to-2 assist-to-turnover ratio. Ugh.

Do I have to say anything about Toledo? I hope not. They're a bottom-of-the-barrel team who played like it.

Recap of the weekend in Auburn news first thing tomorrow.