Two things

1. It's not often I find things to disagree with the near-incomparable SMQ about, but his take today that Auburn fans should place the blame for the lackluster 2004 recruting class on the Tigers' on-field failures rather than Jetgate/SACS hoo-ha is a wee bit off-base.

He's repsonding to this Charles Goldberg piece in which Goldberg points out that "Of the players who signed from 2003 (today's redshirt seniors) through last April (the true freshmen of 2007), the 2004 class has produced the fewest current starters other than this year's freshman class" and reasonably suggests--as surely every AU fan and writer has done when surveying that class's relative lack of impact--that the class suffered from, you know, everyone outside of Auburn realizing the program really was being run on puppet strings by an out-of-control, egomanaical banker. SMQ, however, turns up the sarcasm-meter to 11 and tells Auburn fans to...

Heap the scorn for your youthful indiscretions on Bobby Petrino! And SACS! Otherwise, top recruits would have been flocking to a program that lost 13 games over three years from 2001-03...

He's not completely wrong, mind you. It's probably not 100% coincidental that of the four classes Goldberg's looking at, the worst one followed Auburn's worst (and far-and-away most disappointing) year on the field.

But SMQ doesn't note that Tubby's generally been a successful recruiter no matter what kind of records his teams have posted. From 1998-2001 Auburn suffered 23 losses in a four-year span and Tubby still managed to bring in Campbell, Brown, Cadillac, McNeill, Rudi Johnson, Rogers, and basically the entire backbone of the greatest team the SEC has seen in the BCS era. The highlights of the 2004 class--Merrill Johnson, Jason Bosley, Pat Sims, Tyronne Green, and most notably Brad Lester, if he ever wears an Auburn uniform again--are quality players, no doubt. But for the first and possibly only time in Tubby's time at Auburn, there's no signature stud in that group, no NFL first-round dratt picks or even All-SEC-caliber players (unless Sims really turns it on). It seems awfully likely to me that Tubby's inability to find even one of those guys might have had something to do with the fact that players might not want to play for a coach whose administration hated him so much they were willing to secretly throw him down a well the very week he was busy beating the school's blood rival.

Not a big fan of this guy, no.

In short: Auburn fans (and, theoretically, certain trustees who occasionally have issues with the whole "trust" part of the job) who are starting to get that "Out with Tubby!" itch after the last two weeks should take one second to realize that it was scratching that itch in the first place that helped make the last two weeks the disappointment they've been.

2. Sorry, the time to write anything substantial about Mississippi St. just isn't there. But it was there over the summer, so if you were busy wakeboarding and listening to Surfin' Safari and working on your I *heart* John Smoltz scrapbook, please check out the JCCW's Cheese Puff Preview of State. And if you've already read it, fear not, new (if not Croom-related) material coming tomorrow.

SEC Power Poll ballot Week 2

Brandon's got the new SEC Power Poll up at Garnet and Black Attack. Here's the ballot I submitted after careful a half-minute's consideration:

1. LSU. Yeah, nevermind that bit last week about them being overrated. Holding the Glennon "Express" to seven points probably isn't that noteworthy, but hanging 48 on that defense is. Really did not expect the Bayou Bengals to be so dominant.

2. South Carolina. Is there a better win anywhere else on the remainder this list than in Athens over the Dawgs? Nope. Mitchell playing like the mistake-free intelligent senior QB Auburn fans thought we had.

3. Georgia. Oklahoma St. beatdown still worth far, far more than Gators' sugar-frosted W's. Moreno looks dangerous and still no major problems on D ... holdin Spurrier's offense to 16 points is still an accomplishment.

4. Florida. Not ready to make them the SEC East favorite yet after yielding 31 points to Troy. Still not a shred of reason to doubt Tebow (I always want to write "the Letter" after his name ... the guys from Athens will probably know what I'm talking about), Harvin, and co., but I wouldn't be surprised if ...

5. Tennesee. ... outscores them this week. The Vols aren't getting nearly enough credit for not really even being seriously threatened by a solid, CUSA-favorite Southern Miss team. If Ainge is on his game and the Vols can run at all, could easily see them winning a 35-31-type game Saturday.

6. Arkansas. Down from three on my ballot this week simply by virtue of not having the quality W's the teams ahead of them have, and struggling with Troy more than UF did.

7. Alabama. Good win, yes, but Wilson was abysmal the first half and the Tide were helped immensely by Nickson unraveling at the seams. Still, the running game looked sharp and with two home games ahead followed by the game against wretched Florida St., they could be 7-0 heading into the Third Saturday before anyone realizes what's happened. And yes, I'll have the rat poison sandwich. Make it a combo. Bag of Lay's and, uh, the medium cyanide Kool-Aid.

8. Auburn. Until Cox shows some sign of higher brain function, even having them ahead of Kentucky probably qualifies as a homer pick. That said, South Florida's not being given enough credit. They're not the Sun Belt team some quarters seem to be making them out to be.

9. Kentucky. Crushed a Kent St. team that had beaten Iowa St. Though the Cyclones also trailed 24-6 to I-AA Northern Iowa before losing by 11 this week, so I wouldn't recommend getting carried away, either.

10. Vandy. I suspect some SEC coaches might like to recast their vote for Pre-season All-SEC third team QB. Nickson was a complete disaster. Which is too bad, since it seemed the rest of Vandy was up for the challenge until the D wore out under Grant's beatings.

11. Mississippi St. My expectation they will win the Egg Bowl reaffirmed by Tulane win and late discovery of fluky nature of Ole Miss's W over Memphis (Rebels were outgained 467 to 275! Only Auburn is allowed to win like that.) So ...

12. Ole Miss. Offensive output more proof that Mizzou's defense still sucks than that Rebels are quality. At least, that's the way I see it.

When we knew

We found out what team Auburn is in 2007 with about 7:30 left in the second quarter Saturday night. The Tigers had the ball 3rd-and-14 from the South Florida 22, score 14-10. A conversion was unlikely, but provided Auburn avoided the sack or a pick, wunderkind kicker Wes Byrum looked more than capable of nailing a 39-yarder (or less). With Auburn's defense having forced two straight punts and looking like its usual dominant self again, the important thing was to take the not-quite-sure-but-exceedingly-likely points and run, and play the defense-and-special-teams game Auburn has become such exacting specialists at over the past 14 games or so.

But it was at this point we knew that Auburn is not going to be the 10-2 team some of us envisioned. Auburn is not going to challenge LSU in the SEC West, not going to extend that juicy "Over the past X seasons, Auburn has the Xth-bst record in the nation" statistic. Auburn is going to have to scrape and claw and belley-crawl with a knife jammed in its teeth for every single inch of field position it can get, all just to reach 8-4.

Because all the optimism and high expectations were based around the "senior quarterback" theorem. Experienced, we all said. Completely healthy again, we were told. Gutsy, no question. The receivers were lacking, the line was green, the tailbacks talented-but-unproven, but with a 100% Brandon Cox we believed we had the glue to hold all of that together well enough for the defense to make the difference.

But on that second quarter 3rd-and-14, our senior quarterback, in his 27th consecutive start, dropped back and under minimal pressure, leaned on his back foot and tossed the prototypical wounded duck towards a double-covered tight end, Tommy "Not Exactly a Jump-Ball Specialist, Brandon" Trott. The Bulls had little problem picking that piece of ripe fruit and Auburn put no points on the scoreboard after a first down at the USF 18.

And that was that. If Auburn does not even have a quarterback who can be counted on to make the safe plays and good decisions--much less a quarterback who makes the incisive, surprising, game-breaking plays--it has nothing on offense. Nothing. In fact, against USF, it had less than nothing. If Auburn's first six possessions of the second half had simply been a succession of three-and-outs and not Fumble-Punt-Fumble-Fumble-Punt-Hideous Interception, Will Muschamp's D might have been able to rescue the whole damn salvage operation singlehandedly. But singlehandedly and with the Auburn O an albatross swinging from their neck? Almost (thanks to some help from a kicker some USF blogger somewhere is surely referring to as D*****t A*******o), but not quite.

No, Cox didn't get much help from his receivers, most notoriously fellow senior Prachae Rodriguez, dropper of Cox's best throw of the night (on the same drive as the pick mentioned above) and a sure touchdown. Cox wasn't responsible for Mario Fannin poisoning his oh-so-promising debut with two backbreaking fumbles.

But the fact remains that whatever hope the Auburn offense had of turning around their 2006 troubles rested with Cox, and he is not going to fulfill that hope. It seems unfathomable that a QB who could be so collected as a sophomore (he failed to throw a pick 40 attempts in Baton Rouge that season) could be so utterly shaky as a senior, but this is the case.

Personally? I think it's a health issue for Cox, though not the one you might be thinking of. I believe the constant pressure and endless sack parade in the 2006 season has scarred Cox for good mentally, to the point that he now feels pressure when none is near, that he sees receivers as open that aren't because he wants so badly to believe that it's a good time to just get rid of the damn thing. MG sucks, but arm trouble or physical fatigue isn't wht's getting Cox into trouble, it's his reads--and the disease shouldn't mess with his ability to look off his first choice or check down when he needs to, should it?

Honestly, though, all the theorizing and rumormongering is pointless. Whatever reason for Cox's backslide, it's happened. After 3rd-and-14 at the South Florida 22, there was no doubt anymore. Which is why I didn't wind up cursing at house pets or tossing items off of balconies after the loss. Auburn is what they are: a team with solid coaching, a brilliant-bordering-on-heroic (in the sports sense of the word) defense, kickers none of us saw coming, and an offense that will have to be dragged forward like a tantrum-throwing, turnover-spewing toddler every step of the way.

Phil Steele was right, and I was wrong. As difficult as it is, it's time to re-adjust our focus, Auburn fans; if we can escape 2007 with four or fewer losses and an Iron Bowl win (gigantic if), this is going to be a successful season. That's all this quarterback and this offense gives us reason to hope for.

Other thoughts:

--I'm torn about the potential for benching Cox. On one hand, Cox is a senior and is trying and if Field hasn't beaten him out already, what is he really going to bring to the table? On the other, Field truly can't be any worse and I worry about how long the defense will continue to move mountains if the offense can't even move, uh, pebbles. (Note that Burns isn't even in this picture. This team isn't worth a year of his eligibility.) I think Cox deserves his shot at redemption through the Florida game. If the Gators eat him up the way K-St. and USF did, it's time to see if we've got other options. Sorry, Brandon.

--I think it's time for Auburn fans to cut Al Borges some slack. 2004 still wasn't all that long ago and I thought his play-calling Saturday was fine, if not better. 17 points in the first half, for this offense against a quality defense ... that's more than acceptable. And as for the second half, I'm not sure how you pin any of those turnovers on him unless you think he's in charge of getting the Stickum onto Fannin's hands. Look at the overtime series (scroll all the way down on the link): 1. A straight-ahead rush with a straight-ahead runner, not flashy but what got Auburn going in the 2Q 2. A nice-looking slip screen to Trott that goes for 15 if Cox doesn't throw it at the back of Trott's head 3. A post that puts Dunn open at the 3, but Cox can't find him. The first is the same call 99% of Auburn fans would have made themselves and the last two are successful calls undone by poor quarterback execution. Maybe you can argue Borges and the rest of the AU staff should have done a better job getting Cox prepared, but ... the's a fifth-year senior! 27 starts! How much coaching can you give him? The bottom line is that Auburn's got way, way bigger problems to worry about than Al Borges.

--The fickleness of fans--2006 was Tubby's best coaching job ever! Wait, fire the bastard!--hurts our general credibility, but occasionally fans have it right. When I read Phillip Marshall's critique of Auburn fans' response to the K-St. game, I thought he had it wrong--this wasn't pessimistic Auburn fans seeing a win in the worst possible light, it was well-founded fear based on what was a decidedly lackluster perfromance that foretold losses, and soon, if there wasn't dramatic improvement. And whaddaya know, here that loss is.

--Time for some credit where it's due: The defense was balls-out incredible again (first quarter excluded, but how bout Muschamp's adjustment-making ability?), Byrum's clearly ready for his fourth-quarter game-winner closeup, the offensive line looked much improved, and I'll even credit Tubby for having his guys by-and-large ready to play against a team I thought they might overlook. (Again, I don't see how Cox descending into full on head-casery can be laid at Tubby's feet.) Even the decision to play for OT didn't bug me much. It's another example of Tubby lacking his ol' aggressiveness, but that that point he and I both agreed that a catastrophic turnover was the more likely result of an attempted drive than an Auburn field goal. It's weak, but that's the offense we're dealing with.

The Works, Bull market-style

7 links (well, slightly more) for 7 "Things to Watch" or "Keys to the Game" or "Impact Factors" or whatever you would like the call them for the South Florida game. I prefer "Stuff That Should Totally Prove to Be Important in Determining the Game's Outcome," but I can understand why ESPN hasn't gone for it yet.

1. The Thing With Feathers. I have watched this clip a hundred times over the past two days and it's going to be a hundred more by the end of the year:



Quentin Groves is the freaking HOPE. No matter how badly Auburn's offense may continue to chase its own tail, they're going to have a chance to score more points than the opposition. And that chance starts with this very, very bad man. USF has a better line (at least, on paper) than KSU, and I doubt Leavitt is going to be foolhardy enough to leave the Hope iso'd on the right tackle with the game on the line, but he is going to have his say.

2. The King. I have some mild disagreement with Jay over at Track 'Em Tigers when he says the fact that Dunlap and his girlfriend having their second child Thursday shouldn't have had any impact on his mental preparation for Saturday. Dunlap didn't actually give birth, no, but ... still, a baby? I'm not a father myself, but I'm pretty sure that when that day comes, I'm going to spend the rest of the week walking around in the kind of daze last seen from the extras from One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, calmly muttering "diapers ... diapers" over and over again to myself. So I'm not really comfortable suggesting the experience shouldn't have been weighing at least a teensy bit on Dunlap's mind.

That said? Jay and I both agree that if this happens again, the offense will be fortunate to put 16 points on the board again. This is an NFL-quality senior. The offense's improvement has to begin here.

3. Terror. I was already plenty a'feared of South Florida in the preseason. After last Saturday? I don't really have any expectations. Maybe Auburn will win. I am hopeful. I would enjoy that.

But boy, I am in a place very, very, far from confidence. I was somewhat surprised to read Phil Marshall's comments that Auburn fans shouldn't have been so displeased with Saturday's win. Take away Robert Dunn's punt return and the GROVESGROVESGROVES TD and these two teams are dead even--on the scoreboard, on the stat sheet (look, they both averaged exactly 4.3 a play), everywhere. Auburn fans do not want to be dead even with Kansas St. Dead even with Kansas St. is equal to losing to South Florida, most likely. Plays like Dunn's and Groves's are great, but you can't plan for them or rely on them. Dramatic improvement is needed, or Auburn will lose this game.

And as no such dramatic improvement--or, and this is another reason Auburn fans were up in arms, any improvement whatsoever--was attained over the eight months between the retina-searing ugly Cotton Bowl performance and last Saturday, I am skeptical said improvement is coming. If Auburn approaches this game expecting anything less than an SEC-quality fistfight--and I've always believed Tubby's Auburn's attitude has mirrored that of its fans--it's going down.

Of course, there is a counter argument ...

4. Elon. Specifically, that Elon, [insert obligatory "Who?"-like joke asking if this is a real school, where it's located, what its mascot is, etc. here], hung with South Florida to the tune of a 28-13 loss.

I suggest you disregard this result entirely. I have little doubt that USF has been preparing for Auburn all summer. I have little doubt that the Bulls sandbagged their offense at every single opportunity. I have little doubt they put the absolute barest minimum of concentration and effort into that game, knowing what awaited them this week.

Remember, too, that USF scraped by eventually winless Florida International by a point last year. It didn't matter much when they took down West Virginia in Morgantown.

5. The Phenom. I thought Ben Tate really wasn't that bad last week. 87 yards rushing isn't eye-popping, but I'm not sure why it's so hard for football fans to add in the 23 yards receiving he was also responsible for and say "110 yards .. .not bad." When he had a seam, he was quality, and I'll be fine with him as the No. 1 back should Lester be gone for good.

But I want to see Fannin. Tubby waited on Irons. He waited on Brown, waited on Cadillac, and I think he's following the same approach here. Tate is quality. But Fannin could be a game-breaker, and as I said, Auburn isn't in the sort of situation tomorrow night where they can afford to leave any bullets in the chamber. It's time.

6. The Gap. USF will not have the better defense tomorrow night, at any of the three units (assuming Blackmon plays). They will not have a better running back (I'll believe the Mike ford hype when I see it ... also, see the preceding note), or tight ends. Their receivers may be better, but not by enough to make a massive difference. Ripe sucker that I am, I honestly think Dunlap will get it together and the line will be respectable, though this George Selvie cat worries me.

In the end, though, I think USF's biggest advantage is at quarterback. Grothe may be somewhat error-prone, but he's also shown the knack for the huge play, the kind that shuts up hostile stadiums and changes games. Cox is made of various steel alloys and has perhaps the most admirable set of testicles on any Auburn player I can remember (you know what, I should really, really find a better way to say he's got guts ... but oh well. And while we're here, No. 11! In your face, Tebow!) ... but he hasn't been a game-changer since 2005. This is fine. Better than fine. He's won left and right even as his body, protection, and (new this week!) brain have failed him each and every week since the LSU game.

But USF is good enough that simply making a handful of solid throws at key times won't be enough this week. If he can't at least come close to matching Grothe's performance, Auburn's advantage on the other side of the ball will evaporate to nothing. The gap must close.

7. Luck. Surely, surely, Auburn's endless wellspring must be nearly dry. The Tigers have been outgained four consecutive games now (Arkansas St. last year was the last time Auburn wasn't). Going 3-1 while having been outgained four straight times is exceedingly unlikely. Going 4-1 while having been outgained five straight times is all but impossible. Again: the bounces, the official's calls, the stunning defensive touchdowns ... these cannot be relied on. Auburn must simply play the better game. Period.

Will they? I said they would just last week, but that 10-2 prediction felt wildly optimistic at the time and now ... well, I just don't really even have a guess at what will happen. It's a toss-up if ever there was one. But truth be told, after las tweek, Auburn coming out and exerting its will on the game, rolling up the yardage, etc. will probably surprise me more than the Tigers finally taking that close loss they've been flirting with for so long.

I've never wanted to be surprised so badly, and the HOPE springs eternal. But as fondly as I'll remember last week's game (for reasons expressed in the post below), the cold light of analysis suggests it just wasn't a harbinger of good things to come.

The sound of the bicycle horn is the sound of victory

I don't really have a clue whether this story is at all interesting. And it's long. Fingers crossed, I'm telling it anyway.

Any readers of the JCCW who climbed aboard over the summer or in the wake of the Arrested Development post might not know that I do not currently, in fact, even live within driving distance of the team I love. The Soon-to-be Mrs. JCCW and I have temporarily expatriated to Ann Arbor, which is why the last post talked about getting one last mini-vacation in before you have to put on a sweater just to contemplate going outside. (Particularly, of course, if you were raised in "It's the last week of February, time to break out the t-shirts" Alabama.)

We'd made reservations for a nice little inn (sort of a bed-and-breakfast without the breakfast) outside Sleeping Bear Dunes National Park on the Leelanau Peninsula, where we'd planned to do the whole hiking-beach-scenic drive-winery tour thing. (Is there any activity more Caucasian than a winery tour? There's cross-country skiing, and past that, I got nuthin'.) The inn told us they had a common-room TV where we ... well, let's be honest, I could catch the K-St. game.

By the time we finish up at work Friday afternoon, take off, get terrifyingly lost in the Michigan backwoods in the middle of the night thanks to some errant and/or confusing Google Maps directions, and arrive, it's 1 a.m. No biggie, we said we'd be late, they said there'd be a key in an envelope taped to the front door. There's no envelope, though. We ring up the innkeepers using the available phone and this balding porn-stached guy pops out. "Are you sure you made your reservation here?" he asks. "And you're sure it was for three nights?" Yes, we are quite, quite sure. "Well, we don't have you in the computer," he says, "and we're full for the weekend." Uh-oh.

They do have one available room in which we spend the night, and they do apologize profusely the next morning for having booked us for next weekend. They also shunt us off to a more-expensive-yet-infinitely-crummier family motel the next town over. A plague on their houses! Said motel isn't a dump, but it does feature 1. teenagers outside loafing around on coolers, smoking, and laughing at high decibel levels at all hours 2. a mattress with all the softness of the Orgeron's black heart 3. that classic old motel smell. It has a TV, but the idea of spending the first real four hours of my college football season there makes me want to tie a brick to my leg and hop in Lake Michigan instead. We/I need an alternative.

And surprisingly, it turns out we've got an appealing one: a sports bar called Bench Warmers improbably located in Maple City, an inaccurately-named mid-peninsula hamlet so small the five-stoplight town I grew up in in Alabama could have stolen its lunch money. But, hey, sports bar.

We get there about 20 minutes before the Auburn kickoff. I'm a little bugged that there's no sound and that I'm going to miss what seems likely to be the only Ron Franklin call of an SEC game all season, but beggars, choosers, one can't be the other, etc. ESPN comes back from commercial and kicks off their highlight package with Michigan-Appy St. This alone should set off alarm bells, but it's not until after the second Appy TD that my ears really prick up. Afer Appy's third I say out loud, "Wow, did they take the lead into halftime?"

The guy eating at the table in front of me turns around. "You didn't hear?" he says.

And I know. Watching it unfold via highlight over the next 45 seconds or so is like watching the news report of something catastrophic, like a bridge collapse, after hearing it on the radio first. Sure, you know it happened, but in the case of something like this it really does take seeing to believe. But there that little I-AA kick-blocker goes, and it's over.

What's just begun, however, is the liquid sense of dread pooling in my gut. I'm a regular reader and fan of MGoBlog, to the point I co-opted his terminology for pre-season predictions for my own nefarious ends. I know Brian's classification for Appy St. was "Functional DNP," an attitude probably, honestly, even less chock-full of hubris than my oh-so-casual dismissal of Kansas St. ESPN has moved on to Holtz's mush-mouthed declarations of increduilty (or at least, that's what I assume they are ... for the first and just about only time during the evening, I'm glad the sound is off) and clips of Florida beating the piss out of WKU, but I'm stuck on the similarity between Brian's position entering this week and mine. I am convinced Auburn (and my poor, egg-threatened car) is in trouble.

By now, we're all aware that for the first 57 minutes of the game, the Tigers do precisely nothing to un-convince me. Not even the return of the Fog of Intimidation helps. And God bless Bench Warmers for existing, but with every game of the slightest interest to Michigan fans long since completed, the atmosphere doesn't help turn that dread outward rather than inward. During the first quarter, the noise in their little dining room ends up something like this:

Diner 1: So I tell her, look, we're just going to have to bite the bullet and buy a new lawn mower. The yard--
Me: SACK HIM! SACK HIM! GET HIM DOWN! GET HIM ON THE GROUND, DAMMIT!
Diner 1: ... uh, the yard, yeah, it's just too big to keep asking Gene to keep lugging that old Snapper across it every other weekend. He's a healthy kid, sure, but when the sun's out, I just think it's too much to ask him.
Diner 2: You looked at any Cub Cadets? My brother-in-law bought one, and he says--
Me: YES! GO SMITH! GO SMITH! RUN! RUN! YEAAAAAAH! *series of loud claps*

Eventually, Soon-to-be-Mrs. JCCW tires of our table being stared at as if it ought to be inside a well-built cage for the safety of the others and I do my best to focus on my note-taking, which I'm doing like a good blogger. As the Tigers continue to thrash about helplessly on offense and alternate series-to-series on defense between looking impregnable and looking, um, easily-pregnated, these notes end up turning into a series of personal questions for those involved and run thusly:

"Tubby, why is the defense still blitzing every other play when Freeman hasn't thrown further than six yards downfield in a dozen attempts? 'Hurries' don't mean much when the pass is completed and the QB has a thick protective casing of blubber."

"Hugh, Brandon, Al, why are we not even out of the first half of the first game and we're already to the point where we're going to have to revive the SackMeter? Is it the line? Is it indecisiveness in the pocket? Is it the receivers' incapability of getting open? With understanding comes forgiveness, fellas. Just help me understand."

"Ryan, Wes, it's really entirely too bad that you guys, freshmen playing in your first Auburn game ever in two of the highest-visibility positions on the field, are the stand-outs. Good job anyway. Glad to have you aboard."

"Tray, please feel better."

"Brandon. Brandon Cox. I defended you on the blog, I defended you to skeptical Michigan fans, I defended your honor in front of my father this summer. I'm well aware that having the back of fans like myself ranks very low on your list of what motivates you. Your offensive line has not been a great help. But for the record: you haven't had my back or the backs of any Auburn fans who have stuck up for you tonight. At all."

"ESPN, it's sad how little surprise and anger I can muster at your decision to flip SEC fans the finger again. I mean, of course you cut away to show the entire last at-bat of a game precious few of us care about and linger painfully over pointless applause instead of, say, showing the highlight during commercial ... all while our team's season is on the line in some ways. Of course, because you hate us. We know that. All my rage is spent."

"Tubby, it's 13-9 in the fourth quarter, fourth-and-five on your opponent's 30, after your offense has gained 59 yards on the only thing even resembling one of those newfangled 'drives" they've heard so much about ... and your decision is to send a true freshman in his first game on to try a 47-yarder you wouldn't have banked on V*****n himself making last year. Where's the aggression? Where's the balls-out gambler of old? You're telling the offense, flat-out, you have no faith in their ability to cross the goal line. None. There is no way the football gods will reward this with a good kick."

"Quentin, Sen'Derrick, Jerraud, et al, let no one disparage your name if Auburn loses this game with Kansas St. still stuck on 13 points. 13 points, particularly when the offense you faced opened with such airtight execution, is a remarkable feat. You are the men we expected you to be."

That's the last thing I write (or, the gist of the last scribble I scribble). Because on Auburn's next possession, Kansas St. (or, arguably, the officials) hands Auburn not one but two 15-yard, automatic first-down penalties, and the offense--whose final six plays of the possession gain 0, 1, 0, -1, 3, 2--still cannot even cross midfield. The Auburn offense, somehow still while under the direction of Al Borges, looks as if it will not make the end zone if it plays through Labor Day evening. I'm not walking out, but at this point, I resign myself to defeat. We've moved to the bar now with the dining room's closure, and some old guy has noticed my Auburn t-shirt and Auburn hat and asked in the third quarter why I sounded so frustrated.

"Our offense has looked horrible," I tell him.
"Oh, you're still within a touchdown," he says. "You're right there with him!"

I don't have the heart to tell him that we are at home and favored by nearly two TDs. And when after the nightmare of a possession mentioned above--when we punt the ball back to K-St. with 6:09 to play and still in need of a touchdown or nothing--the guy turns around and says "You're right, they don't look good." I may not be as miserable as the Michigan fans, but I am rapidly approaching renting an apartment in the same miserable building.

The Auburn defense stands tall again and forces K-St. to punt from their own 17. AU will start at their own 43. I try to grasp that last straw of hope. And then ... then
Cox hits Rodriguez for 12. An incomplete pass. And then Cox makes the sort of play he's made for going on three years ... Second-and-long, last chance, nothing happening, he takes a couple steps forward as if to scramble for a yard (for the umpteenth time this game) before nonchalantly flipping the ball towards Rodriguez as he tightropes the right sideline. It is a ridiculous-looking pass, a lost wobbler. Rodriguez catches it.

GO! I yell. Rodriguez does, down to the KSU 30, at which point he fumbles, only for Tommy "Not a Blocking Fumble-Recovering Tight End" Trott to fall on it. (Say this for Tommy: after his comical trip-and-faceplant on a drag route helped ruin the possession following Dunn's bug punt return, at least we can say he is good at falling over.) I clap loudly, say a few exclamations of hope. A couple of heads at the bar turn.

Pass to Swinton for 16. First-and-goal. I'm standing up now, clapping, muttering Come on Auburn, Come on Auburn. Stewart loses 2 GOTTA BLOCK GUYS Offsides on K-St. ALL RIGHT ALL RIGHT Cox rolls left COME ON lofts it to the back of the end zone ... McKenzie is there! YES! YES! YES!

There's clapping, a quick jump and double-fist pump, a double high-five for the Soon-to-be-Mrs. ... and aside from a couple of whispers of "Auburn fan," or "took the lead there" the rest of the bar is silent. Not being the sort who really enjoys making a scene, it's a peculiar feeling, probably the way a man raised by chimps feels when he plunges face-first into a bowl of soup in a fancy restaurant and then gets the vague feeling no one else is doing the same thing ... or something.

I try to calm down as K-St. takes the field. The Soon-to-be-Mrs., her threshold for college football passed many sacks of Cox ago, gripes that KSU is going to kick a field goal and send the game into overtime. "No, there's no way the Auburn defense is going to let that happen," I tell her. "They've worked too hard. See, holy crap, Groves just ran right over that poor tackle! He's freaking possessed, I can't believe they're leaving that tackle alone with him. At least shift ... YES! GROVES! YEAH, GO! GO! YEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSS! GROVESGROVESGROVES!WHOO!"

That goes on for a few moments. A guy at the bar offers a high-five, which is nice. And then from beneath the bar the bartender pulls out a bicycle horn and lays it on the bar. "That's usually for Michigan games," he says, "but go ahead."

So I give it a few quick honks. It sounds beautiful. In the big room, there's almost an echo. Delirious on Auburn's Lazarus-like revival and the pure, unadulterated joy that comes with knowing a force of nature (and concerned citizen) like Quentin Groves is on your team, it sounds like a victory trumpet. "War Eagle!" I say.

There's no "War Eagle" in response, since I doubt there's another Auburn fan within a hundred mile radius. That's fine. There's a couple more high-fives as we walk out, and as we drive home, I'm torn. I know I've just watched an offensive performance just one notch ahead of "pathetic," seen our most indispensable player pounded into the same pulp that sunk us last year, in general witnessed Auburn play at a level that will not get them through a single week unscathed.

But I did so in the strangest setting, the most unusual circumstances I likely ever have and likely ever will again (save a trip overseas during football season, not exactly on the docket as of now). I got to walk out of the bar in Maple City, Michigan not only with my team a winner, but knowing I'd remember said win for as long as I'm telling pointless Auburn stories (i.e. forever)--and that on a day virtually every college football fan in that bar and the surrounding area will desperately try to forget. I feel more thankful, truly, than angry or worried.

And I feel like our car could use a bicyle horn.

Power Poll placeholder

Wasn't planning on posting today--no time yet for anything of substance--but thought, what the hell, might as well toss up my ballot and comments I sent to Brandon at Garnet and Black Attack for the inaugural SEC Power Poll. Bear in mind that while giving it a bit more time in terms of thought, I dashed these comments out in about the same amount of time it took Antonio Coleman to make the end zone.

Anyways:

1. Georgia -- The Dawgs' defense and DC Willie Martinez were supposed to be the weak link. The weak link held the alleged best offense in the Big 12 to 14 points. Looks like a bona fide East favorite to me.

2. Florida -- No. 2 by default. Not that any score vs. WKU would have been that impressive, but no other SEC team really impressed, did they?

3. Arkansas -- Ahead by just six at the half vs. Troy, but woke up and cruised. Again, who below was any better?

4. LSU -- I'm just not buying it. The defense may be all that but I'm not sure it's any better than Auburn's and the offense didn't look close to SEC title quality. Crowton's crew is the No. 1 story-to-watch over the next couple of weeks.

5. South Carolina -- Expecting big things from Spurrier's bunch but boy, they didn't bring it vs. the Ragin' Cajuns at all. Another performance like that and they'll drop several places here. (I'm sure it's their top concern.)

6. Tennessee -- Torched, but torched by a terrific offense on the road and looked very, very capable on offense. Should maybe be higher.

7. Auburn -- Groves and Co. will not be able to bail out an offense that utterly inept every week. A three-game winning streak in which Auburn has been outgained every time is not likely to be four if the Tigers get outgained again.

8. Alabama -- Ready to move up when they play an actual opponent.

9. Vandy -- No differentiating these guys ...

10. Kentucky --- ... from these guys for at least another week.

11. Ole Miss -- Would have started them at the bottom if we'd done a pre-season poll, but the win over a Memphis team Phil Steele was in love with moves them ahead of the woebegone Bulldogs.

12. Miss. St. -- Just painful to watch.

Back next week

Perhaps we could have had better timing.

But in any case, the Soon-to-be-Mrs. JCCW (boy, did changing her name to that take a lot of convincing) and myself are taking advantage of the Labor Day weekend to get in one last excursion into the wilds of northern Michigan before it turns, you know, completely bone-chilling n' stuff. (Better this week, I figured, than nearly any other on the SEC slate. I want the most for my GamePlan dollar, even if it is the first week of the season.) By the time we return and I've caught up at the jobbity job, it'll be mid-week. Vacation or no I'm going to find a way to watch the game, of course. But unfortunately, this means no immediate liveblog or recap or reaction or whatever.

I'd hoped to wrap up the A-U pre-view with a look at the SEC, but oh well, not much in the blogosphere goes completely according to plan. Maybe next week won't be too late. See you then.

And oh: WAR EAGLE!

2007 A-U pre-view: the Sked

This post is the fourth in a series.

So, when you look at Auburn's schedule, and you've weighed up last year and all the positive things the Tigers have going for them against the negatives, where do you end up? How good a record are we actually talking about here? How close is the pit of late-model Bowden / 2003ish despair? What does it all really mean? cries the tiny terrible emo poet inside every Auburn fan. (Well ... maybe just some Auburn fans. Maybe a few here or there. Or, more likely, just me.)

What follows is the JCCW's best guess at what it means, game-by-game from least to most critical. The "outlook" designations are stolen outright borrowed from the exquisite Big 10 previews at MGoBlog.

The Light Workout, Focusing on Quads and Glutes.

The less said about the Tennessee Tech travashamockery the better. Though on some level, it's corporate genius: the team gets all the comforts of a bye week while the program still gets to charge full price for tickets. Everybody wins! Except, of course, those inconsequential fans.
Outlook: Functional DNP.

The Competitive Scrimmage.

I still fret a bit that New Mexico St. will offer more of a Lousiana Tech-style challenge than the AU powers-that-be intend, but barring a measles outbreak across the entire defensive two-deep, the starters should be on the bench and planning the invasion of Gainesville by the start of the fourth.
Outlook: Auto-win.

The Bling-Bling Opener.

With Kansas St. looking more and more like a 2006 Washington St. doppelganger, if a similar result does indeed come to pass I must offer one tip of the cap, at least, towards the Auburn schedule-makers. They have now arranged back-to-back season openers against BCS conference teams whose past reputations exceed their current abilities, earning Auburn national attention, a veneer of respect (patricularly when contrasted with certain other teams I could name), and excessive credit in the event of a win-- all even as the teams they face stare down odds of victory (we are talking about night game at Jordan-Hare, against a borderline bowl team) only degrees better than New Mexico St.'s. (I know, I know: Georgia Tech. There's no Jon Tenuta defense here, though.) In this case, I'll take zirconia-studded style over *cough* Oklahoma St. *cough cough* substance.

Please note that if Auburn loses Saturday, you have my permission to egg my car for this kind of attitude. But unless K-St. has an even better defense than I'm expecting and Auburn's offense is still suffering from its 2006 mediocrity spasms, I'm just not seeing it. Close for three quarters? Yeah. But a Wildcat win? When even their fans are expecting a two-possession loss, our fans can expect a three-possession win.
Outlook: Probable win.

The Exercises in Corporate Ruthlessness.

Auburn dresses in an expensive, finley-tailored suit and says: We really wish you nothing but the best, Ole Miss and Mississippi St. Why, Bulldogs, that Crooming of the Tide alone last year was enough for us to pick up your tab the next time we go out. But we're all professionals here, right? Letting you stay within a possession or two for three quarters, pulling away for the 17-point victory that we collectively understand was never actually in doubt ... it's nothing personal. Just business. And you in particular, Ole Miss, seemed to be a little unhappy with that arrangement last year. We'll be happy to remind you of its benefits as we play at home this season.
Outlook: Ole Miss: Probable win; Miss. St.: Auto-win.

The Potential Upsets, Bad

It may seem contradictory to show the kind of unwarranted arrogance I did above in regards to Kansas St. and nearly wet myself thinking about South Florida. Both were on-the-rise middle-of-their-league BCS teams last season, both pulled off one massive upset (USF over West Virginia, K-St. the shocker against Texas), both have good young quarterbacks, and both did struggle like all get out at times against seriously sub-par teams. But South Florida's upset came on the road, against a better team, whose QB wasn't hurt for most of the game. South Florida has a tradition of upsets. South Florida didn't get beaten like a pack animal in its final two games of the season.

In short, South Florida is better. But because they're name is "South Florida," and because that first-week victory may be decisive, Auburn will take them more lightly than they will K-St. And this, friends, is reason to fear.

The other potential pitfall is Vanderbilt. Whereas Auburn spent most of last year winning tight games in which they'd been outgained, Vandy spent most of it losing tight games in which they'd been outgainers. As you may have heard, the 'Dores had a better yardage margin in SEC play last year than Auburn did. This is a team that karma owes that will be facing a team karma's looking for a reason to smite the week after the latter plays in the Swamp and the week before it goes to Fayetteville. This is a game, in other words, that also scares the holy beloved crap out of me. I know it's Vandy. But that's exactly what Georgia said last year.

Nonetheless both of these remain ...
Outlook: Probable wins

The Potential Upset, Good.

Everything in the Cheese Puff Preview about the Florida blogosphere's ill-advised taunting of Cox, the series' history of upsets, Tubby's ability coaching as the underdog, and most importantly the hate crime against aesthetics that is Florida's choice of school colors ... all of that still stands. Yes, I am more optimistic about this game than I should be.
Outlook: Tossup (should perhaps be "Probable loss," but ... like I said, optimism.

The Home Road Game.

You can't explain the road team's perpetual success in the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry (home team = 5-11 in last 16) and neither can I. I just know that it will be a long, long time--like, 2046, assuming Georgia wins every game between the hedges between now and then--before Auburn goes to Georgia and I don't feel like the Tigers have a hell of a shot. When Ben Leard can go to Athens and throw four touchdown passes in a half and finish with 416 yards, you know anything's possible. I happen to like the Bulldogs' odds in the SEC East this year, but that doesn't mean I like their odds to beat Auburn at home ... and I'm not alone.
Outlook: Tossup.

The Deciders.

Since the SEC division split in 1992, Auburn has defeated LSU and Arkansas in the same season precisely five times: '93, '94, '97, '00, and '04. Tiger fans can probably figure out that after discarding the two Bowden probation years, the three remaining just happen to be the same three seasons Auburn went to Atlanta. The wins over the Dawgs, Gators, and even the Tide (especially, especially the Tide) are sweet, yes oh yes. But what's really stood in Auburn's way on the path to more SEC titles are the one-two hurdle of the Bayou Bengals and the Hogs. In the same stretch, Auburn's only lost to both during the '98 Fiasco to End All Fiascoes and 2001. But Tubby has learned the hard way that one win isn't good enough. To win the West, Auburn must have both.

The on-field impact of Las Cronicas is probably overstated, but Nutt's year-to-year inconsistency probably isn't. And the more and more hype gets showered on LSU, the more and more they remind me of another, very familiar team of recent vintage that collasped under the planetoid-like weight of preseason expectations. So both are winnable. Atlanta should again be the goal.

But both do remain road games against vastly talented foes that have enjoyed as much success against Auburn as Auburn has against them in recent years. And worst of all, there's two of them.
Outlook: Arkansas: Tossup; LSU: Probable loss.

The Everything.

The day of the 'Bama game, I am going to go to the local store and buy both a bottle of Delirium Tremens and a half-case of Steel Reserve. The former is for celebration in the result of victory, of Auburn's longest winning streak against the Tide in the series history, of the Saban worshippers forced to crawl back to the holes for another year. The latter, in the event of a loss, is for plunging headlong into sweet oblivion as smoothly and quickly as possible.

This year, nothing means more. Nothing even comes close. Fortunately for Auburn fans, Tubby knows it too. And until 'Bama and King Crimson prove otherwise, this game has to be viewed as a ...
Outlook: Probable win.

Best-Case Scenario

I don't think any Auburn fan not under the influence of perspective-altering drugs expects to sweep the four murderous road games, but the Tigers will likely be favored in every home game and none of the roadies is out of reach. Hold serve at home, get the upset in Gainesville, split the West games, and keep the ball rolling in Athens and you're sitting at 11-1 just like that.

Worst-case Scenario

The Tigers sleep on South Florida and lose. The full force of Florida's fully-installed, Tebow-led and optimally-tuned Meyer offense is too much. Vandy takes advantage of the hangover and Lady Luck hands them the sort of fluky game they lost and Auburn won in 2006. Arkansas keeps running over the Tigers and LSU is as good as advertised. Psycholgically shelled, Auburn loses both ends of the Amen Corner and crashes all the way to 5-7.

Final Verdict

Finally, this season is a balance of two things: This is likely the most talented team, top-to-bottom, Tubby has had outside of 2004. This is also the most difficult schedule Tubby has faced, period. Put them together, and you get a prototypcial Tubby year.

Said years consist of mega-victories: I expect Auburn to split on the road, grabbing one of the Florida/Georgia tossups (more likely the Gators, despite the Dawgs' home-field disadvantage) and taking advantage of Arkansas's greenness on defense to earn a measure of vengeance for last season.

Said years consist of losing the SEC West title on tiebreaker: I expect Auburn to lose to LSU in excruciating fashion, the only fashion in which these teams lose to each other. LSU generally does so in Auburn; Auburn generally does so in Baton Rouge. The pattern holds. And let's be frank: of three tossups and a probable loss, getting two of them is just about the best we can hope for.

Depressingly, said years also consist of one soul-jarring upset. And South Florida, Vandy, and ... and ... grit your teeth, get through it ... the Tide (ugh) are all viable candidates. Yes, the Tide. The offense will be good. And what the coaching has lost in human decency, it has made up for in, well, everything else.

But I think Auburn skips that element this year. In part because South Florida and Vandy, while scary, just don't the kind of quality of, say, Arkansas and Georgia last year. And in part because I simply believe Tubby will not let his team lose to the Tide this year.

Perhaps this is misplaced faith. That I'm so much closer to the best-case scenario than the worst is a screaming red flag. So it won't surprise me at all if Auburn goes 9-3; honestly, that's probably closer to where the Tigers' talented-but-oh-so-young roster should finish. But the official pick? 10-2. No trip to Atlanta. But fewer Nebraska-game-like misadventures on offense, a win over the enemy, and a nice warm feeling going into the bowl season regardless.

The Works, Game Week-style

First, a programming note. If you're looking for the Arrested Devopment supplement post (the one I first promised would be up late last week, then promised it would be up over the weekend), it's not up yet. There's been some headway made, but (unlike this one ... work, she is a Harsh Mistress) it's not a post I'm going to half-ass. That one deserves to be a whole-ass post and it'll get done when I'm not desperately trying to finish preview hoo-ha before Saturday. Sorry.

Also: If I have to start an espresso drip and pull all-nighters from now until Saturday, a final analysis of Auburn's schedule, an official prediction, some SEC prognosticatin', and a few thoughts on the national picture that no one cares about will all be up this week. Stay tuned.

For now ... it's finally GAME WEEK! You know what time it is, Auburn? It's time to Walk Hard, damn it.


Let's go play Machete Fight!

Auburn will be well-rested, at least. Anyone who thought the departure of the Irons brothers meant the end of clever quotes from the Auburn locker room was sorely mistaken:

"Me and Montez were having a competition to see who could sleep the longest. He won. Montez sleeps like a polar bear."

Robert Dunn was clearly paying attention to his freshman English instructor when they told him that phrases like "sleeping like a bear" was nice, but could be improved by being even more specific. Bully for him.

Coincidentally, polar bears are also known to suffer from hamstring problems.

Your mandatory Phillip Marshall links. Apparently, Marshall believes great things are ahead for the Auburn o-line ... eventually. Here he says the Tigers will wind up stronger across the line at four out of five positions but he goes on to only grade AU out at about a B-minus collectively. It's not really contradictory--B-minus now, better grade later I'm sure is the thinking--but it does represent the uncertainty that even seasoned Auburn watchers, ones who have likely watched more Tiger practice than anyone outside the coaching staff, still have over what we're going to see out of this unit on Saturday.

Speaking of Saturday...

Bring on the Cats. I say that not only because, well, I'm very much looking forward to seeing what Auburn's defensive line can accomplish against an o-line that Ron Prince basically comes right out says is the chink in the Cats' already-creaking offensive armor, but because that's the name of the K-St. blog you'll need to follow this week. Blogger TB is trying to wear a brave face himself in the light of K-St.'s rocky off-season, which is admirable, but he's also borrowing the face and other assorted assets of Marissa Miller, which from here seems even more admirable.

Did you hear the one about Auburn's basketball schedule? Actually, you wouldn't have. I mean, you could theortically call this slate a joke, but as it's not funny at all it'd be misleading. The Jeff Lebo Project won't play a single power-conference NCAA tournament team outside the SEC. Xavier is one of only three teams on the nonconference schedule to even make the NCAAs, and they were an 8 seed and Auburn plays them at home. (G-dub was a 14, TAMU-CC a 15.) Auburn isn't filling the void left by the likes of Pitt with good mid-majors (TAMU_CC potentially excepted): Three SWAC teams, two dregs from the Atlantic Sun in Mercer and Kennesaw, and then Presbyterian, who's not even a full-fledged D-I school yet. One or two of these games? Fine. But this many is going to be a giant anchor on Auburn's RPI and the SEC--where the West was a disaster zone last season and at this point in time doesn't look improved a lick--isn't going to do much to help. This schedule isn't just embarrassing and cowardly-looking (particularly when you consider this should be Lebo's best team by a mile), it will actively damage Auburn's NCAA chances. Someon, be it Lebo or Jacobs or both, should have been trying harder.

2007 A-U pre-view: The Cons

This post is the third in a series. In the event you're looking for the next Cheese Puff Preview, the remaining editions have been moved to in-season. Best laid plans ganging oft agley and all. Sorry.



After hitting the Pros last time out, it's time to count down the Cons side of the argument for 2007 Auburn.

10. The blocking of Tommy "Not a Blocking Tight End" Trott. I think every fan has at least one player on their Favorite Team that they like, sure, I mean, they play for my Favorite Team but ... said fan would also like said player to be a just a bit better at playing football. We're not talking about the Chris Cappses of the world here. We're talking about the guys who aren't really bad ... they're just not as good as we'd like. And when Tommy Trott waved the ball around like a semaphore flag before having it predictably knocked loose inside the Florida 5 last year, he became that guy at the JCCW. He then didn't do much to lose said designation down the stretch as a disproportionate number of the many "Kenny Irons takes the handoff, looks for some room on the right, but there's nothing there and he's tackled for a loss of a yard" plays could be laid at his feet. Sorry, Tommy. But given the, ahem, inexperience along the rest of the line, I'm not sure Auburn can afford to play a TE that can't stick with his blocks.

Counter: Trott is a valuable receiver, and with Bennett and McKenzie both available, he doesn't have to be an every-down player any more. Trott can rotate in when receivers are needed and rotate out when power blocking is needed ... provided he doesn't do it so often it becomes a tip-off.

9. Carl Stewart's new trick hamstring. When I wrote that I didn't want Stewart to come back until 30 minutes before the K-St. kickoff, I was joking. Mostly. But it's looking like Stewart won't be back too much before then, if at all. He hasn't practiced a day this fall and still only "hopes to be full speed by early next week." This is precisely the sort of injury that hangs around like a stale fart (Sorry ...forgot Simmons has that charming phrase copyrighted) all season and even if Stewart does manage to get fully recovered, there's no way he's as in synch as he should be after missing virtually every minute of camp. And (I'll say it again) Cox is the only player the Auburn offense would have more trouble replacing other than Stewart.

Counter: The missed time won't really hurt a player as savvy and experienced as Stewart past maybe the first couple of weeks--and as difficult as those games might be, they're not going to Gainesville or Baton Rouge, either. Auburn's coaches know that, too. Maybe that's given them the incentive to be unusually cautious with an injury that's not as serious as the missed time might indicate?

8. The mortal terror of a potential injury to Cox. That's an obtuse way (the only way we know here, you'll notice) of saying the backup QB situation is still more heart-stopping than the Exorcist. It's terrific that Blake Field has convinced Phillip Marshall the Auburn offense wouldn't become a complete train wreck if he ended up under center ... but geez, I'll believe it when I see it. (Ironically, I desperately hope Cox stays healthy and we never see it. So Blake Field, one of my biggest wishes for Auburn this year is that I doubt you 'til the end. Apologies.) Caudle, of course, is an injury casualty for the forseeable future. Burns might be AU's best bet if Cox goes down, but to have to burn his redshirt the same year we've got a third-year senior starter would be the biggest waste since the Superconducting Suprcollider. And I'm far from convinced even Burns would be a match for most SEC teams.

Counter: Hey, knock on wood, Cox has been plenty durable so far. If he does stay healthy, we could have Canadian alt-country chanteuse Neko Case for a backup QB and it wouldn't matter. In fact, it might be a good idea.

If you'd listened to "The Tigers Have Spoken," you'd have a crush, too.

7. Perpeutual Tubbidity. The big bright green hype machine is spitting out names other than Auburn's these days, but if the undefeated Tigers take down an undefeated Gator squad in Gainesville? If they somehow survive Baton Rouge, even if there's a loss along the way there? Here come the "best team in the SEC whispers" and the talk about a Florida-like run ... and then that Tubby thing happens and everything comes to a crashing halt. 2004 obviously excepted, Auburn's been so allergic to prosperity in recent years I think it might be worth asking the team doctor if Allegra is right for the team.

Counter: Uh, Auburn'll cross this bridge when it gets there. Tubbidity means that, yes, an undefeated season is about as likely as Hillary Clinton getting an invitation to an Ann Coulter dinner party. But it's already about that likely ... or less.

Things get a lot more serious from here, by the way.

6. Rod Smith, No. 1 receiver. Prechae Rodriguez, No. 2 receiver. Nameless Faceless, No. 3 receiver. All right, so the real No. 3 receiver is probably Robert Dunn, or maybe James Swinton or Tim Hawthorne or Chris Slaughter or Montez Billings ... but geez, this year at least, none of these guys (Smith and Rodriguez included) is exactly going to be Terry Beasley. They're not likely to even be Devin Aromashadu or Willie Gosha. Rod Smith is a solid possession guy, but I feel fairly certain Bo Pelini isn't lying awake at 3 a.m. trying to figure out how to contain him, or any of AU's receivers. On paper, this the weakest corps of wideouts of Tubby's tenure.

Counter: It might be true that there's not much difference between Auburn's No. 1 guy and No. 8 guy, but the madding crowd at this position means that the odds are in Auburn's favor that someone is going to end up being a lot better than we expect. Ronney Daniels came out of nowhere. Courtney Taylor was a solid contributor as a freshman. There's too many recruiting stars piled up on that list of names for someone not to break out. (Hawthorne and your swollen recruiting rep, I'm looking at you. Injuries, I know, but I heard more about you last year than I have at any point this fall. What's up?)

5. The Freshman Invastion. When copy editors are writing headlines about your team like "Nine freshmen may play key roles at your team" and your team doesn't play in the Sun Belt, that's not a good thing. Supremely talented as guys like Ziemba, McNeil, and Bo Harris might be, you generally need more than pure talent to survive against the likes of, say, Glenn Dorsey. As noted previously, this is a particular problem for the linebackers. As currently constructed the Auburn defense is an invulnerable fire-breathing death-beast. But should a couple of injuries (Johnson) and/or suspensions (Blackmon) strike, the linebackers are going to the blinking red light on a Dr. Wily invention that screams "weak spot."

Counter: It's not like freshmen, true or otherwise, succeeding in the SEC is unheard of. At Auburn alone since the turn of the century, you've got the aforementioned Courtney Taylor. DeMarco McNeil. Cadillac. SenDerrick Marks just last year. All terrific players, but did any of them arrive with so much more guru respect than Ziemba or McNeil? (Well, maybe Cadillac.) It would be nice, yes, if we had a senior Ziemba to keep freshman Ziemba off the field. But either Ziemba (particularly given that Nall seems so high on him) is probably going to be succeed. And even at linebacker, last year Craig Stevens was able to crack the rotation as a true frosh, and Auburn's world did somehow continue to spin.

4. Then again, it ain't just Ziemba along the offensive line. Redshirt frosh Mike Berry's now the starting right guard. Tyronne Green's a first-time starter at left guard. Jason Bosley only started a handful of games in 2006 and didn't set the world on fire. Ziemba means Auburn will start a freshman at both positions on the right side. The two-deep likely includes yet another true frosh in center Ryan Pugh as well as redshirt freshman Byron Isom. The one guy Auburn fans were definitely counting on to help out King Dunlap, one-time mega-recruit Leon Hart, has continued his underwhelming career by hurting his ankle and watching the unheralded Berry steal his spot.

The bottom line: as far as sure things in 2007 along Auburn's offensive line go, it's Dunlap and no one else.

Counter: Seriously: whatever. Last year's line was supposed to be oh-so-dominant, with seniors like Grubbs and Palmer and Duckworth and Cope around. It never was. Neither was the 2003 line that was going to pave to way to Cadillac and Brown's co-Heismans. Auburn's best lines under Tubby? Like his teams as a whole, the one we haven't seen coming: 2000. 2002. 2004. 2007? I know this: when last year's starters had as much experience as they had and they played as inconsistently as Auburn's did last season, it's better not having returning starters than it is having them. Experience or not, returning starters or not, there's too much talent here for Hugh Nall to let the problems that happened last year happen again. Scary as things are on paper, the JCCW's guess is that by season's end, Auburn's issues here will look greatly, greatly exaggerated.

3. Inevitable regression to the mean. I made a mental note ahead of my my look at Phil Steele's forecasts of doom based on Auburn's low yardage efficiency and repeated success in close games in 2006 that SMQ was a 100 percent guaranteed lock to echo those sentiments in the SEC edition of "Life on the Margins." I brain-locked and forgot to include the note, but sure enough, there it was this week, in handy chart form. Auburn was a very fortunate team last year and to rely on that fortune again isn't just tempting fate, it's having a few drinks with fate after work, asking fate back to your apartment afterward, and leaving fate on your couch while you "slip into something more comfortable." (Fate's going to have a hard time saying no, is what I'm saying.)

Counter: The linked post above mostly covers it. But it might be worth noting that Auburn is 22-6 since 2001 and 13-2 since 2003 in one-possession games (and the 2006 Florida game, which was in disguise). Auburn hasn't finished worse than .500 in those games since 1998, when it went 1-2. I wouldn't usually dare challenge the widely-held and sound statistical notion that there's no such thing as "clutch," that chance really does even out over time ... but that sure as hell looks like a trend, doesn't it?

2. (Un-?) Special teams. A true freshman placekicker. A redshirt freshman punter. The kickoff returner gone with a broken toe for the first several weeks. The punt returner barely hanging onto his job. If these units are as weak as they look on paper and Auburn gets back into the slugfests of 2006 where special teams will make the difference in the game, Auburn will be in Lake Baikal-deep trouble.


A song about what Auburn will be in if Byrum and Shoemaker don't come through.

Counter: For starters, Byrum and Shoemaker haven't sucked in practice. Not even a little bit. God only knows if it'll translate this Saturday, but there's hope. Additionally, when it comes to placekicking, Florida could have had a trained mule handling kicks last year and not done any worse, and it hurt them so badly they only beat Ohio St. by 27 in the national title game. As for the returns, well, Davis'll be back eventually and it's not like punt returning has been a strength since Cadillac left.

1. A schedule that hates you, and hates your children. The consensus SEC champ and No. 2 team in the country. The defending national champions featuring the offense their coach has always dreamed of building. The defending SEC West champs, Auburn's single biggest bogey team and home to the country's single best player. And the team that last November handed the Tigers their most emabrrassing loss in years and by nearly all accounts will have only improved. All four of them are on the road.

And that's just the start. There's also two quality BCS non-conference opponents, the second of which has made an annual habit of felling the biggest redwoods on their schedule. There's the traditional doormat who everyone knows is going to upset one of the conference powers and happens to be innocuously snuggled between the Gators and Hogs like a land mine. And there is always the Tide, now coached by an actual coach, and that game's razor's edge of adrenaline and pressure.

It is a schedule that only a sadist, or Idi Amin, or a Tide fan could love.

Counter: There's no real counter here. Sure, Auburn will stand a good shot of surprising the Gators. No one really know what's going to happen with Arkansas and the Tigers will be ready to sacrifice various minor appendages for revenge. LSU is coached by Les Miles and not Jimbo Fisher. And it's not like winning in Athens has ever been an issue. But blowing any of these teams out will be an order taller than tallerson, and that nagging 6-0 close game record last year makes me think that close games will simply not break AU's way this year. Going just 2-2 on this yellow brick cobblestones-made-from-the-bones-of-baby-seals road will be a terrific accomplishment.

Of course, all but the most "National title or bust!" Auburn fans will be happy with 2-2, because the consensus is that the Tigers will sweep their home games. But since 1993, Auburn's finished with an unblemished home record precisely twice, in 2000 and again in 2004. And three (maybe four, though I really think K-St just isn't that big a threat) teams that will visit Jordan-Hare will have more than a fighting chance and grabbing the upset that Tubby's teams have been so vulnerable to over the years.

There are bright sides to many of the arguments brought forth against Auburn's success this season. The team's critics should remember them. But it's true there's no bright side to this schedule.

2007 A-U pre-view: The Pros

This post is the second in a series. In the event you're looking for the next Cheese Puff Preview, the remaining editions have been moved to in-season. Best laid plans ganging oft agley and all. Sorry.



I doubt I'll ever be much interested in writing the traditional "Auburn is set at seventh-string tight end, where walk-on Forrest McWilliker has proven himself more than capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time" exahustive positional breakdown. Or even a more casual unit-by-unit thing. There's a bajillion magazines and half a bajillion websites out there that have already done the same thing, and I can't imagine anyone who's reading this isn't already well aware by now that, say, Antonio Coleman, Octavius Balkcom, Zach Clayton, etc. give Auburn great depth at defensive end.

I'd rather talk about exactly how pumped up Auburn fans should be about the fact that we have great depth at defensive end, or how worried sick that we have less than great depth at linebacker. So here's a countdown of 10 Pros, the 10 biggest reasons I'm confident about the 2007 season, accompanied by their respective counterpoints for balance's sake. Next post will be the 10 Cons and their counterpoints. By the end, the JCCW will have pretty much covered the things worth covering with the season now a week away, thank everything holy.

So, the Pros, with the quick caveat that I am most certainly the glass-half-full type and these reflect that:

10. The comic off-season hijinks of our nonconference opponents. When I first started really buckling down on my research for this season (i.e. blew my entire weekly Panera-double-mocha-and-a-cream-cheese-bagel-for-every-breakfast allowance on Steele, Street and Smith's, Sporting News, etc.) the 1-2 jab of K-St. and South Florida had me deeply uneasy. Sure, Auburn had finally gotten over that Week 1 hump (and how) against Wazzu last year, but that was just one decent non-league opponent. What happens when there's two back-to-back, with the substantially more dangerous team potentially lying in wait on the back half after an over-confidence generating initial rout?

Well, the first thing that happens is that Team A's quarterback hops on the Phillip Fulmer see-food diet and starts going 0-for-the-whole-practice*, and Team B sees virtually everyone on the completed o-line two-deep pick up some form of nagging injury. No, Auburn's injury situation hasn't exactly been cause to break out the party hats and kazoos, either, but overall I would guess Tubby's still happier with how his two-a-days have gone than either Prince or Leavitt. Consider the JCCW's Terror Alert level been downgraded a color.

Counter: Isn't this exactly how K-St. and USF want Auburn to see them?
Counter-counter: At home and at night, will it matter?

9. A coaching staff that's better than yours. And I'm not even talking about the two guys at the top of the heap. I'm talking about Will Muschamp. Eddie Gran. Hugh Nall. James Willis. Every one of those guys is a proven, bankable commodity. Say what you want about Ensminger, but he's a former OC at La. Tech (when they were worth a damn) and Texas A&M ... and on Auburn's coaching staff this season, he's coaching the tight ends. The stability and continuity here from is also particularly important when you consider that some other teams we're just a bit interested in defeating ain't got it.

Counter: Nall's Midas touch from 2004 and 2005 didn't seem to be entirely in effect last season, did it? And Muschamp's forces weren't exactly prepared week-in and week-out, were they?
Counter-counter: Meaning a) Nall's due for a rebound b) he'll make adjustments in Year Two.

8. Three professional-grade tight ends. Most schools would be happy just to have "Stone-" Cole Bennett, a Jason Witten clone capable of eating defensive linemen for breakfast in the power running game and when Auburn airs it out, nabbing an on-the-go lunch of any linebacker who tries to cover him. But Auburn also has athletic-as-hell Gabe McKenzie and Tommy "Not a Blocking Tight End" Trott, who while not a blocking tight end has the kind of hands that make Borges gush about his potential every time he's brought up. (You know, I should probably change "the kind of hands that make Borges gush" to a less ... peculiar-sounding phrase. Oh well.)

Counter: Bennett may say he's in great shape after the season-ender last year, but is he? And it's not like Borges seemed to go to great lengths to get these guys involved down the 2006 stretch.
Counter-counter: Borges likely would have paid the tight ends substantially more attention if Bennett had been on of him. Also, with McKenzie and Trott around Bennett doesn't have to be an every-down player--just every critical down.

7.King Dunlap. I made this same joke last year, but if your name is friggin' King Dunlap, you are going to be an all-conference caliber offensive lineman if your ancestry is Borneo pygmy on your Mom's side and Tom Cruise on your Dad's. These are the bedrocks great lines are built around.

Counter: Does Auburn really have the materials to build around Dunlap with?
Counter-counter: Either way, it's simply not going to be any worse than last year. Can't be.

6. The Auburn running back tradition upheld. Remember, if you've forgotten: there were times in 2005 when Brad Lester and Kenny Irons were both healthy, and Lester got more carries. Remember than Ben Tate had the team's highest rushing average for a running back last year by more than two full yards, impressive even if he'd been running against Boy Scout troop 673. And of course Borges has more or less gone on record as saying Fannin's got more talent than either. Two years ago Tre Smith had first crack, but we all expected that even if it didn't work out with Smith, someone would emerge to carry the load. I have confidence in Lester. But if not, hey ... someone's going to emerge again.

Counter: Lester injures himself tying his cleats, Tate's a paper Tiger who built his rep against the Sisters of the Poor, and no really knows yet about Fannin.
Counter-counter: Call me crazy, but I think Al Borges would, in fact, know. This is Auburn. We're not going without a competent running back.

5. Quentin Groves. Tray Blackmon. I pray thusly for you, O my enemies in purple, in crimson, in red-and-black and whatever they happen to call that color at Arkansas cardinal: May your death, at the least, come swiftly. For it will not come without pain. To rest in even the most infintesimal flicker of hope that it shall not is to entreat the grandest of self-deceptions, and bitter lies.

Counter: Groves can be run on and you just know Blackmon's still got one foot in the doghouse.
Counter-counter: Straws, the grasping of, etc.

4. Al Borges. 33-5 overall. 22-3 in the SEC. With his unit coming off of a subpar year and detractors everywhere slamming his quarterback, his line, his receivers. This is a man with too much skill and pride to fail in nearly any circumstance; with these circumstances, when that quarterback is a healthy senior in his third year of starting and the blanket dismissal of his receivers ignores the solidity of Bennett, Stewart, and Smith and he has this many weapons to line up behind his quarterback ... he is simply not going to fail us.

Counter: If the line doesn't hold up, all of Cox's experience and the running backs' speed and the tight ends' versatility won't make any difference.
Counter-counter: If the line does hold up, those things will make this offense one, if not exactly to be feared, to have its efficiency unquestionably respected. Though it will depend on that line holding up.

3. Brandon Cox and the season of disrespect. How startling it's been to see the same quarterback who as a sophomore walked into the overflowing cauldron of noise and hatred that is a 6:47 p.m. kickoff in Baton Rouge, faced fourth-and-goal from the 5 with under five minutes to play, and calmly flipped the ball into the back of the end zone to give his team the lead suddenly told he would not be fit to quarterback at Troy, or Rice, or Lousiana-Monroe. That if Auburn had the sophomores currently quarterbacking at Ball State, SMU, and Arkansas St., they would be better off.

To take Jay Coulter's highly appropriate history lesson one small step further, Auburn has started four other senior quarterbacks in the previous 15 years. Three of them won the SEC West and the other went undefeated while on probation. And now the fifth has every drop of motivation and karma behind him he could ask for. As they were when Campbell got (essentially) booed in the opening game of 2004, the redemption stories are already writing themselves.

Counter: Who's to say he wasn't permanently broken last year? MG isn't the sort of disease that just magically disappears from the body like Magic Johnson's HIV.
Counter-counter: I'm taking his word and his coaches' word that he is 100 percent. If he is not ... well, yes, that will cause problems.

2. Tommy Tuberville, LSU, and Nick Saban. I have precisely zero doubt that after 2004, any coach in the SEC takes public perception more seriously than Tubby does. In fact, you will never convince me he wasn't already invested heavily--and delighted in--his team's clippings in the summer of 2003. That year he was able to blame the overflow of hype for his team's demise. Then the very next year he could blame the lack of hype for his team's vicious snub. It seems unlikely, to me, that Tubby will ever be happy with the amount of goodwill his team receives in the preseason, but that's how it goes for a coach whose teams have been floundering as the favorite and deadly as the underdog for nearly a decade; there will always be too much attention or too little.

But this off-season is a new animal all together. One one side there is the actual business of expectations, and by this point any public figure claiming that LSU will somehow drop the division title is a lone voice crying in the wilderness, taken as seriously as the bum on the park bench babbling madness. In the coaching staff appraisal above I linked to an outstanding RBR post from Outside the Sidelines that goes into great detail on the hidden problems and obstacles LSU faces this season. But for all his quibbling about the tongue-baths lavished on the Tigers recently, OTS still rankes them fourth in the nation and picks them for the SEC title. Brian of MGoBlog has twice now made strong arguments on behalf of an Arkansas team that I happen to agree is being written off far too quickly (just to warn you, he's also predicting an Auburn crash-and-burn). But there, again, sits LSU at No. 3 and as Brian's de facto SEC champ. Even experts (and I mean that as sincerely as I can ... OTS and Brian know far, far more about this sport than the likes of, say, Dennis Dodd) who don't think LSU's that good still think they're better than anyone else in the SEC; even those that think other SEC teams are very good don't think they're as good as LSU. That his team has gone (again) 33-5 in three years and now isn't even considered a threat surely, surely has Tubby griding his teeth in his sleep ... and just as surely has him stoking the fires of his players at every possible opportunity.

But methinks the LSU hubbub merely motivates Tubby. The Saban hubbub likely enrages him. A team that he has beaten five consecutive times, often in brutal fashion, now coached by an opponent he fought to a stalemate at the barest minimum (and once utterly horse-whipped with a team that didn't even win the division) ... and this, and this, and this is already the result.

This, almost certainly, is the most disrespected, overlooked, and just plain infuriated Tommy Tuberville has ever been. This is a coach who made public that he felt slighted on behalf of his quarterback not being named pre-season third-team All-SEC. That is a much, much smaller issue than the media storm enveloping 'Bama and LSU at the moment. And I suspect that Tubby, at this moment, would do nearly anything imaginable to crush the two of them and I suspect he is, at this moment, doing every single thing he knows to do to make that happen. No, he hasn't made too much noise about to the media. But I suspect still he is angry, he is wounded, and he is driven.
And when that has been the case for Tubby--see that horse-whipping I mentioned earlier, coming off the back of back-to-back defeats and LSU being made a heavy favorite on the road--he is not one to lose.

Counter: Motivation doesn't matter if, oh, Cox isn't healthy or Byrum wets his pants or the receivers can't get open in an empty meadow.
Counter-counter: Auburn's had problems before. As I've pointed out previously (at the tail end of that post), they're still 7-1 in three seasons as an underdog or three-point favorite or less, and the "1" was the John Vaughn catastrophe. That is what happens when Tubby and his team are focused and prepared, and they will be focused and prepared often this season.

1.A defense that will devour everything in its path. It's not just Blackmon and Groves. Pat Sims has allegedly been an unholy terror in camp, and he's the only one of the four up front that didn't start last year. Blackmon is flanked by one returning starter who's as steady as they come in Merrill Johnson (when healthy, admittedly) and another talented enough to crack the rotation as a true freshman in Craig Stevens. In the secondary, corner Jerraud Powers and safety Zac Etheridge have been two of Auburn's best players in practice, and neither one is SEC All-Freshman and appropriately-named Aairon Savage or seen-it-all veterans Jonathan Wilhite or Eric Brock. Or, hey, Patrick Lee ...

The point being: find a weak spot. Please. Throw, and Groves and Sen'Derrick Marks are on their way with Savage, Powers, and Wilhite out there waiting. Run the middle, and Thompson and Sims are happy to collapse the middle and expose Blackmon's terrible and merciless wrath. Run on the ends and ... well, best of luck moving Marks (6-1, 291) out of the way. My sole recommendation would be to run right at Groves and whichever of the less-terrifying linebackers is behind him, and pray you make the edge before Blackmon arrives. That's all I've got to offer.

But don't take my word for it. Phillip Marshall's been around Auburn for a long time and isn't prone to hyperbole. Hell, he's the sort who'd be perfectly happy with 9-4. And he says, completely straight-facedly, that this defense could be Auburn's best since 1988. Read it, opposing SEC offenses, and weep.

Counter: All you've talked about is the starting 11. There's no depth here and by the end of the season, this defense will be in shredded tatters just like they were vs. UGA last year.
Counter-counter: At linebacker, this is a vaild point--though Tubby's bunch once stuffed Spurrier and Grossman playing what I recall as a Pop Warner star, Andy Dick, and a J.C.Penney's mannequin at linebacker, so maybe it's not. Regardless, Tubby's recruited well enough that both the line and the secondary can stand a couple of blows. Again: Eric Brock and Patrick Lee may come off the bench. I happen to think that qualifies as good depth rather than the opposite.

This was relentlesly cheerleady, I know. The Cons post will be different. I do have genuine worries.

*HT to Bring on the Cats. Also, their TE is suspended. Good times.