Sunday, March 15, 2009

JCCW Bracketology

First, the bubble. After the Miss. St. win today, I agree with the consensus there's only two bubble spots left. I rank the ladder like so:

IN!

1. Maryland
2. Creighton

OUT!

3. Penn St.
4. Arizona
5. San Diego St.

I don't think St. Mary's is a threat. Including them over Creighton means taking them over a team with three times as many top 100 wins as the Gaels. Mills or no Mills--and why are we supposed to believe Mills is back to normal because he played well against Eastern Washington? Last time we saw him against a real team, he was an abomination--I don't like SMC's chances at all.

I think Maryland's gaggle of top 25 wins has them safe. Creighton vs. Penn St. and Arizona and SDSU is tougher: all four have reasons for inclusion. But ultimately I think Creighton's 11-1 final 12 record and 9-5 record vs. the top 100 will win out--though they have nothing like Penn St.s' road W's over Illinois and Michigan St., so I'm nervous.

No. 1 seeds. Take a guess between UConn, Michigan St., and Memphis for the last one--I went with the Huskies due to their lack of bad losses. Average RPI loss for UConn: 19, compared to 44 for MSU and 30 for Memphis.

And now ...

THE BRACKET

Midwest region

Dayton

1. Louisville
16. Alabama St./Chattanooga

vs.

8. Oklahoma St.
9. Boston College

Portland

5. Utah
12. VCU

vs.

4. Purdue
13. Western Kentucky

Miami

3. Wake Forest
14. Binghamton

vs.

6. UCLA
11. Wisconsin

Kansas City

7. West Virginia
10. Utah St.

vs.

2. Oklahoma
15. East Tennessee St.

vs. West region

Philadelphia

1. UConn
16. Morehead St.

vs.

8. Clemson
9. Michigan

Portland

5. Tennessee
12. Creighton

vs.

4. Washington
13. North Dakota St.

Dayton

3. Syracuse
14. American

vs.

6. Gonzaga
11. Siena

Kansas City

7. Texas
10. Minnesota

vs.

2. Memphis
15. Portland St.

East region

Philadelphia

1. Pitt
16. Cal St. Northridge

vs.

8. Butler
9. Southern Cal

Miami

5. Illinois
12. Northern Iowa

vs.

4. Florida St.
13. Stephen F. Austin

Boise

3. Kansas
14. Robert Morris

vs.

6. Xavier
11. Miss. St.

Greensboro

7. BYU
10. Marquette

vs.

2. Duke
15. Morgan St.

vs. South region

Greensboro

1. North Carolina
16. Radford

vs.

8. Ohio St.
9. Texas A&M

Minneapolis

5. Arizona St.
12. Temple

vs.

4. Villanova
13. Cleveland St.

Boise

6. LSU
11. Dayton

vs.

3. Missouri
14. Akron

Minneapolis

7. California
10. Maryland

vs.

2. Michigan St.
15. Cornell

6 comments:

jrsuicide said...

pour out a 40 for the little guy. im sure Digger was dancing for Arizona.

jd said...

2 questions:

1) If our name were Kentucky, would we have gotten in? I mean, Arizona's streak is pretty much what got them in.

2) If, instead of losing to Mercer by 4 at home, we lost to North Carolina by 50 on the road, would we have gotten in? Our RPI would have been better....

SEC Homer said...

I had very faint hope of seeing AU in the bracket, even after the MSU debacle this afternoon. Once I saw Tennessee as a 9 seed, I didn't even bother looking for AU. The SEC got no respect this year, and their seeds are set up for failure. I think Tennessee has the best chance of all three to make a run because they play so free wheeling. But LSU and MSU have almost no shot at the Sweet
16 IMO.

Jerry Hinnen said...

jrs, no doubt. I swear, as I'm putting this together, I'm thinking "Even though logic and the resumes tell me the mid-major ought to get in, I know they're going to pick some power-conference team any way. They do it every year. I should just slide Penn St. or Arizona in." And next year I'll probably make the same mistake.

jd, Arizona did have nonconference wins over Kansas and Gonzaga and four other top 50 wins. You can make an argument for them. I'm not sure the streak had anything to do with it. Their average RPI win/loss was waaaaaay better than anyone else's on the bubble.

Homer, frankly, the SEC didn't deserve any respect this season. The runaway league champion's best nonconference win was Troy. The next-best team went an even .500 against the top 100. I think Tennessee in particular was underseeded, but I'm a lot more bent out of shape about Creighton getting jacked than the SEC disrespect.

Jan said...

well, I think if the SEC has been disrespected, they way to deal with that is to win out. Auburn had its chance in the tourney & didn't do what needed to be done. If TN, LSU, & MSU win out, then we can claim the SEC was disrespected. if they lose in the first rounds..... well then.

jrsuicide said...

So jerry, being that you...ya know, actually pay attention to college basketball and stuff, who among these mid major teams do you like to pull off a few upsets and get to the 16?

This is a purely scientific question and in no way is related to any gamblin' cash money pools.