A happy Appy? plus other randomness

It’s been probably a solid decade since bracket projections first started hitting the web, it’s been 22 years since the 64-team field was unveiled, and you get the sense there’s still more agreement in Congress on Iraq than amongst bracket-watchers on the evaluation of mid-major teams with potential at-large cases.

The latest evidence? Appalachian St., most recently seen extending their winning streak to seven with a 72-63 win over Elon. Joe Lunardi (as of Sunday morning) thinks the Mountaineers aren’t even on the cusp of the bracket. Bracketography and The Bracket Board see them as worthy of consideration, but out. Stewart Mandel, though, thinks that a SoCon title-game berth gives them an all-but-certain at-large.

Who's right? The case for boils down to Appy St.'s sterling 5-2 record vs. RPI top-100 teams, with all five of those wins coming either on the road or on a neutral court, while both losses came at ACC teams before Virginia transfer Donte Minter became eligible. The case against? Three losses (all with Minter) and runner-up status in an utterly mediocre SoCon.

Up until last season, I'd have agreed with K-Dub: A second-place team in the SoCon ain't getting any bid that's not automatic. But then the 2006 Committee took a pair of mid-major teams (well, Air Force is mid-majoresque) with worse resumes than Appy St's this year. And while more than one writer has asked why Appy St. would get in when Davidson got the shaft after running the SoCon regular-season table two years ago, that Davidson team both faced a tougher bubble and accomplished much less in the nonconference.

My guess? Despite the unconscionable Butler and Utah St. NCAA snubs earlier this decade, by and large the Committee has gradually been more forgiving of mid-majors and less forgiving of run-of-the-mill power-conference teams, with the stiff-arm of perfectly deserving Cincinnati last season the biggest middle finger to the Big Boys yet. I think if Appy can make the SoCon final and give Davidson a strong game, they'll sneak in.

Elsewhere ...

How SWEEP it is! We all know most Auburn fans could care less about any sport not played with a ball with points on both ends, but winning two straight against the Tide would be a big deal if we were talking varsity marbles. Just a week after some smart-assed fans were making pithy comments about how much progress was being made, The Jeff Lebo Project gets as big a win as it could ask for. If the JLP can get four games over .500, they might be able to snag an NIT bid. Doesn't sound like much, nut hey, we'll take what we can get ...

The struggles of Creighton and Missouri St. recntly led some to suggest the MoVal might even be a one-bid league, but the JCCW is calling it first: it's going to be a four-bid league. With power-conference teams tripping over themselves left and right, Creighton and Missouri St. should be fine after their wins Saturday. SIU is obviously in and probably a three-seed. But the MoVal tourney never goes to seed and with the top three all looking good entering Arch Madness, either Bradley or Wichita St. (despite their recent suckage) will have motivation they won't. And that'll be enough to steal the automatic bid ...

One of the regets I have about the last few months is that after the move to Ann Arbor, between the jobbity job, the Official Girlfriend of the JCCW, the blog, and the laziness, I haven't carved out the time to effort to check out any of the nearby mid-majors. Which is too bad, since they've been worth watching: Eastern Michigan continued a season of revival from the depths this afternoon by downing Ball St. at home. After winning three games in last year's MAC, the Eagles are a win away from doubling that this year. And a little ways down the road at Oakland, the Golden Grizzlies edged Mid-Con champ Oral Roberts in OT and will enter the MCC tourney as far-and-away the biggest threat to the Jayhawk-killers. Next year, I promise fellas, next year ...

Winthrop is in solid position for an at-large if they need it, but after crushing the closest thing they have to a "rival" by 14 last night on the road, is Gregg Marshall's best team yet really going to be beaten at home in the Big South tourney? Sure, and I hear Rick Majerus is going to be Weigth Watchers' next spokesperson ...

Would someone besides Penn or Princeton please win the Ivy one of these years? Seriously, wouldn't it be great if just once we got to see Dartmouth or Cornell or Harvard play in the NCAAs? Penn's out in front as expected, but after beating the Quakers at home, Yale could have set up a chance to pull even with the frontrunners if they handled 5-6 Columbia at home. Instead they coughed up an 18-point loss. In the meantime, Penn snuck by Dartmouth by two. Sigh.