War Eagle

Interesting assessment of "What's at Stake" between the hedges today from SMQ in this week's edition of Friday Morning Quarterback:

"Georgia, just a Tennessee stumble away from a clear sprint to the BCS, has more to lose than Auburn, whose hopes of winning the West hinge not only on the Tigers beating UGA and Alabama, but also on LSU losing to Ole Miss and Arkansas, i.e. it’s essentially a pride game for the Tigers. Not that there’s anything wrong with that."

Not exactly. As has been pointed out elsewhere, a win today keeps Auburn in line for the unlikeliest Sugar Bowl berth of our lifetimes, a prize that would be so sweet in the aftermath of a season like this one I haven't dared speak its name here, particularly since it's a complete lost cause with a loss today. Thinking about scenarios like that one aren't just getting ahead of ourselves, it's splittling in two, traveling and standing on eiher side of the International Date Line, and yelling at the you on the other side of it "Suck it, Yesterday!" (Or something.) But it's out there nonetheless.

More important, though, is the Pride--capital P--that SMQ undersells. It's more important than the Sugar Bowl. It's more important than an SEC title. It's more important, really, than a national championship. Before all else comes Pride, that simple desire, need, compulsion or whatever synonym you prefer to win today, not for trophies or rankings or the congratulatory smile on Monday from the redhead two rows over in Organic Gardening, but because it's a game and the point is to play hard and win. The best teams, I fully believe, start with Pride and Pride alone and let everything else come as a distant second.

And as an Auburn fan, in no two games is this any truer--hell, let's be honest, it might be the only two here at the JCCW in which it's any true at all--than the two that Auburn will play today and two weeks from today. Given that the Sugar Bowl remains a sugar-plum dream for now, maybe all that is on the line is Pride.

But this week, that's more than enough. This is the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry. It means something that has nothing to do with tomorrow, next week, next year. It means winning over our rivals today. It means we want it, and we want it badly. Go Auburn. Beat Georgia.

War Eagle.

Georgia

What kind of rivalry is this?



That kind of rivalry. "J**n V****n as redeemed hero" rivalry. The same guy who threw the dagger that helped said redemption returning the next year to play the worst game in the history of the forward pass kind of rivalry. Dameyune Craig playing the world's first successful game of 1-on-11 kind of rivalry. 4th-and-15 from the 17 before you get slugged in the stomach and your insides go dead kind of rivalry.

The phrase "throw out the records" gets, well, thrown out a lot more than it should. As a rule the records of the two teams headed into the Iron Bowl are a decently reliable (if obviously not ironclad) predictor. But the Deep South's Oldest and Probably Coolest Rivalry has been won by the higher-ranked team just four times in the last 11, as pointed out by Get the Picture this week, and as various birds in the Auburn-to-Athens corridor could tell you by now, by the home team just three times in the last 15. This is the kind of rivalry where a) Auburn is on the road and b) the opponent is ranked in the top 10, and I don't just feel like those facts might give Auburn a better shot; I know, in my bones, it gives Auburn a better shot.

So, yeah, I can cop to being at least a little bit confident about this game. But as as strong as the historical precedents might be, there's still the actual teams to deal with, and there are several things about this Georgia team that Auburn will have to deal with in a much more practical fashion than the Dawgs will use in battling inexplicable streaks:

1. Knowshon Moreno. One of these years, Mark Richt will realize that giving the lion's share of carries to their most talented back rather than spreading it around to one really talented back and two okey-dokey guys is probably the way to go. Unfortunately, the cruel/benevolent hand of fate did Richt's work for him in removing Moreno's competition for carries, and now he's getting Herschel comparisons left and right. The sad thing is, in terms of effectiveness, I'm not sure they're even that outlandish.

2. Matt Stafford. Sure, Stafford's struggled at times. But he's got the talent. It's not possible to look more like the Platonic ideal of quarterback than Matt Stafford. And most worryingly the last guy who had struggled at times but still possessed Stafford's kind of arm lit Auburn up for a 22-35 for 319 line.

3.They don't turn the ball over. It would be nice if Auburn could get a couple of short fields to work with a la so much of 2006, but as Hey Jenny Slater pointed out in an excellent pre-game breakdown, no one in America has turned the ball over less than Georgia. Curses.

Apparently their supposedly young and sucky offensive line hasn't sucked all that much, either, much like another supposedly young and sucky line (and like one coached by a grad of the school on the opposite sideline Saturday.) Here's the thing, though: All of those positives are on the offensive side of the ball.

The Dawgs just got finished giving up 34 points to a decent but hardly earth-shattering Troy team. Florida scored 30 but more importantly averaged six yards a play, hardly the stuff of a dominant defense. And of course Tennessee ground them into so much dust in the wind. Bottom line: this is not what we could call a "good" defense. If Auburn comes out and executes the way they did against Florida or vs. LSU for the first half, points are going to be scored and the ball is not going to find its way back to Georgia hands with any kind of quickness.

The same is likely also true when Georgia has the ball. But they of course will have to tangle with a defense that (finally!) has Aairon Savage back, has Tray Blackmon 100 percent, has ... well, everything but Craig Stevens, basically. And had a de facto off week last week. If I was a Georgia fan, I'd be worried: not only do all the historical precedents point towards Auburn, but I'd argue the Tigers are better at this point of the season on paper. There's not much difference in quality, if any, between the Dawg offense and the Tiger D; but I think the Tiger offense, particularly if Cox continues his post-benching form, has a fairly clear leg up on the Dawg D.

All of which, of course, makes me sort of worried when I think about it this long. Ever since the LSU loss, I think Auburn fans have consoled themselves with the idea of finishing 9-3. 9-3! That's a heck of a record with this team, that is. And with a win over 'Bama to boot, why, that's not a bad season at all. Might even get a team to the Sugar Bowl, even! And all it takes is a win in Athens--never been a problem--and then over the Tide at home. Not easy, but damn doable. Just holding serve, right?

Right. But Auburn's never been one for holding serve, have they? 9-3 would be great, but how much more likely is it, really, than 7-5? Not more enough for comfort. Not more enough that Auburn's worst-case scenario doesn't remain a hideous crash to Earth through the Amen Corner, a bowl loss, and an entire off-season of discontent the disgruntled factions say Auburn would have been better off if Tubby had bolted while the rest of us yell at them to go root for 'Bama if they hate their team so much. Not fun, no.

The good news? On the balance of history, and perhaps even the balance of talent, Auburn wins. Crisis averted. The bad news? This is Auburn-Georgia. This is the rivalry of Ben Leard throwing for 793 yards and 12 TDs in a half, of Terry Bowden's magic carpet ride unraveling, of Mark Richt's brain stepping out just long enough for the Dawgs to run into the goal line with 10 seconds left, of Hail Marys into overtime and sprinklers unloosed and 111 years being divided by 20 points.

Wait a minute. Maybe that, too, is the good news.

Google Image says Tubby's not going anywhere

Obviously we're at the stage now where sticking our fingers in our ears and going "CAN'T HEAR YOU AGGIES, CAN'T HEAR YOU, LA LA LA LA" isn't going to change the fact that Texas A&M has the hots for our coach the way Lorraine Banes had it for "Calvin Klein." (Weirdest not-so-subtle incest subplot in a mainstream blockbuster ever: Leia making out with Luke or Banes making out with their future son? I can't decide. Discuss.) Once it gets to the point that the Aggies are whispering to all their BFFs they've got a lock of Tubby's hair over there, on their hope chest, it's time to take it seriously as an issue.

But you'll be able to knock me over with a feather made of spiderweb if Tubby actually bolts. Why? Have you forgotten about the 9,000 square-foot house?!? We're talking 9,000 f'ing square feet!


9,000 square feet!


9,000 square feet!


9,000 square feet!


9,000 square feet!


9,000 square feet!

All right, so that last one has nothing to do with Tubby's house, but it popped up in the image search and was too good not to include. The point is that it would be great, sure, if Tubby said "You know what, I'm not going to bluff or toy with anyone, I don't want the fans to worry, so I promise you: I'm not going to A&M or LSU or anywhere" rather than angling for another wheelbarrow-ful of cash to toss on top of the pile in the new basement ... but I'd also like scantily-clas fairies to fly in my windows bearing cupcakes, gumdrops, bulging bags of money, and perfectly seasoned and grilled filets. In the real world, ain't neither one happening.

So we'll just have to deal with Tubby saying "I'm not talking about it" and "Let's just shift the focus onto something else, shall we?" and other issuing various other non-denials until Jacobs can break out the checkbook and make everyone happy again. It won't be fun or easy, exactly, but it's what's going to happen, because, hey, we're talking 9,000 reasons Tubby's got to stay put.

p.s. Not surprisingly, Auburn fans are bucking the "Fire Coach X" trend with a new brand of website, the "Hey, we like out guy and think he deserves to become even more filthy rich" site or the "Seriously, we don't want to have to hire Petrino all over again, OMH so awkward" site. Given that this is the same coach who lost back-to-back home games to unranked (currently) teams earlier this season, the dedication o nthe part of Auburn fans is admirable, I would say.

p.s.s. Georgia-related content on its way most likely sometime late this evening.

SEC Power poll ballot

With extra snark this week.

1. LSU. Being one of the, oh, 12 people who think Miles's throw to the end zone against Auburn was a good idea, up until last Saturday I'd have said Miles was doing a terrific job this season. Of course, then last Saturday LSU played like the whole team had spent the week on the riverboat casino with Perriloux and Miles was outcoached by King Crimson by a factor of about 10 gazillion. Now? He's not quite as lucky as he's being made out to be in some quarters, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was keeping a rabbit's foot or two under that giant hat.

2. Georgia. If you think this is merely a transparent ploy to keep those few football gods who read second-rate blogs (and reward humility, like all just gods) on Auburn's side ahead of this week's meeting in Athens, I don't know what you're talking about. And besides, between the beatdown of the Gators and the road win at Alabama, the Dawgs' top two SEC wins stand up to anyone else's.

3. Auburn. Choke-hold on the Hogs' once-again OMG SO RIDICULOUS ground game looking better by the week. Loss to USF looking worse by the week. Somewhere in-between is the Florida win and the Miss. St. loss. Add it all up with a dash of "Hey, they did to LSU on the road what 'Bama did at home and with Flynn busy channeling the spirit of 1986 Super Bowl Phil Simms as opposed to 2000 Super Bowl Kerry Collins" and you get third, I guess.

4. Alabama. Javier Arenas may be the most underrated player in the SEC. He scares the living daylights out of me. In fact, I didn't even realize I had living daylights until that punt return against LSU, after which I seized up and coughed a couple of times, and there they were. So thanks for that, Javier. May my Tigers kick the ball so far away from you you'll have to dial 1 and the area code to speak to it. (P.S. Bama fans wanting to gripe about the officiating: Your team got outgained 2 to 1 and just two games ago the replay booth saved their fortunate asses. There's no leg to stand on here.)

5. Florida. Three losses are to the top three teams on this list and murderized a poor Vandy team that had started to look frisky again. SEC East standings sort of skewed by the fact Gators had to travel to Baton Rouge whilst Vols went to Starkville and the Dawgs to T-Town. Plus Tebow and Harvin are still basically demigods.

6. Arkansas. As if a team commandeered by Houston Nutt, the post-nuclear-holocaust cockroach of SEC coaches, was ever going to go gently into that good night. Having not one but two USDA-certified prime freaks in the backfield doesn't hurt, either. The guess here--as implied by their ranking a spot ahead of the Vols--is that they win in Knoxville this week.

7. Tennessee. Sorry, but one very good performance against Georgia--even if it gets you into the driver's seat in your division--does not a season make. Of the four other teams with a pulse the Vols have played, three blew them out of the water and the fourth totally pwned them on the stat sheet before collapsing into a blubbering heap the following week. Wonder if this isn't the worst-case scenario for Fat Phil: articificially inflated SEC title hopes that crash-and-burn in "sudden" fashion aren't the best way to win back a tenuous fan "base." Of course, I could be way, way off. We'll see against the Hogs.

8. Kentucky. Now the undisputed holder of the game's two longest losing streaks to a single opponent, making Wildcat fans probably the only set of supporters in the country outside of South Bend who weren't overjoyed when Navy took down the Irish. And if it doesn't happen this year against the Vols, when will it?

9. Mississippi St. Consider me genuinely worried about the Bulldogs finding that sixth win down the stretch and getting shut out of the postseason thanks to the rampant glut of BCS bowl-eligible teams and the expected handful of 7-5 MAC and/or Sun Belt teams. They'd better win two more to be safe or it could be a real, real shame for Sylvester Croom.

10. Vanderbilt. Consider me genuinely worried about the 'Dores finding that sixth win down the stretch and getting shut out of the postseason thanks to the rampant glut of BCS bowl-eligible teams and the expected handful of 7-5 MAC and/or Sun Belt teams. They'd better win two more to be safe or it could be a real, real shame for Bobby Johnson.

11. South Carolina. Think of all the incredible running backs the SEC has seen in the last 20 years: Herschel Walker. Bo Jackson. Emmitt Smith. Markeith Cooper. (Wait ... scratch that last one.) Now, think of all the hopeless patsies they played: the Southwestern Louisianas, the Northeastern Louisianas, the Louisiana Techs, etc. And yet it was this year's Gamecocks who not only allowed an all-time SEC record-tying performance, but allowed a different second runner to go for 166 yards on top of that! The mind absolutely boggles.

12. Ole Miss. Winning a tight game over the Northwestern St. "We're not Northwestern" Demons is perfectly excusable in basketball. In football, not so much. The gap between 11 and 12 in this list is probably wider than between any two other teams you'd care to name.

The gleaning

Because if there's any opponent against which a pick-six deserves to be celebrated via ridiculous dance, it's Tennessee Tech.

There's nothing substantial or nourishing to take away from a meaningless pre-season exhibition ... wait, sorry, that's what basketball teams do at this time of year. (Grand Valley, AUM raises their glasses and says "Nice job.") What I mean is that there's nothing substantial or nourishing to take away from a meaningless in-season virtual exhibition. We should be clear about that. The score means nothing, the usual key stats (total offense, etc.) mean nothing, the attendance numbers mean less than nothing (I wasn't there--no, I didn't decide to drive down from Michigan for the Tennessee Tech game, strangely enough--but if 85,754 people actually came through the turnstiles to watch that game, my name is Reprobatus Bibbs).

But there are tidbits to be had if you comb through the box score with a comb, um, fine-toothed enough. Not enough to make a "Here's how Auburn's going to do in the Amen Corner" meal out of, sure, but maybe a light Sunday afternoon snack.

So, by the numbers ...

The punting might be back. Shoemaker launched four for 208 yards, 52 a pop. Tatum's one attempt went for 61, meaning Auburn averaged 53.8 yards a punt for the game and three of the five were down inside the 20. Not bad. As this is one of the very few elements of the game where the quality of opponent theoretically makes no difference, it should be fair to assume Good Old Shoe is back to his early-season form. (Then again, as punting is also nearly all mental and Tennessee Tech means no pressure whatsoever while playing against, to pick an example completely at random, Alabama provides more pressure than either freshman will have experienced before, this might also prove to be a fluke).

Burns should have thrown the ball more this season, period. I know I've been hammering the Burns issue this season, but when the coaches have made any opportunity for him to actually, you know, play quarterback as opposed to playing Tim Tebow dress-up an occasion for him to get the nervous shakes--even against Tennessee freaking Tech--it means there should have been more opportunities. I know perhaps the more logical argument is that going 0-4 is proof Burns in fact shouldn't have been putting the ball in the air against non-Watson Brown-coached teams, but he's got way, way too much talent to offer up what he called a "terrible" performance against the likes of Tech. Where's the guy who tore up fall camp? Not sure, but my guess is at this point we won't see him until next fall.

Ben Tate probably isn't about to reclaim the starting job. It's assuredly not worth making any vast, "Well so much for him"-style pronouncements, but 35 yards on 14 carries and a 2.5 per-carry average against Tech just isn't exactly impressive, even allowing for a sleepwalking and/or second-string offensive line. Take away one 13-yard dash, and you're looking at 23 yards on 13 carries. This is pure fluke, isn't it, Ben? Please tell us it is.

Tommy Trott and Cole Bennett are physically impressive decoys and nothing more in the passing game. After another reception-less game for Bennett and a single catch for Trott vs. two more for McKenzie, it's pretty clear McKenzie is the go-to tight end when Borges wants to go airborne. Not that any of them are about to suddenly become Auburn's answer to Jason Witten, but McKenzie now has nearly twice as many receptions (13) and Trott and Bennett combined (7). I'm a bit surprised by this and by the fact the TEs have gotten so little attention in general, given the rampant dropsies that have plagued the WRs, but I wouldn't say I care. Trott's proven himself a less-than-reliable option and if Borges' calls tell us McKenzie is that far ahead of Bennett as a receiver at this point, we don't have any reason I can see to doubt him. It's just one of those "Well, huh, who would have guessed" kind of things.

The kickoff units have to get better. Another 67-yard return given up. If the Tech guy could do that, no wonder Tubby didn't want to kick to Trindon Holliday. The inconsistency of the kickoff guys doesn't help, of course. Morgan Hull got his shot and followed up one deep kick to the TTU 3 with one (that I assume was also deep, someone correct me if I'm wrong) to the TTU 21.

And ... that's about the extent of it. The scrimmages and workouts and full-speed practices and games that even Phillip Marshall whines about having to stay to the end of are mercifully behind us. It's time to turn the Amen Corner and after the last two not-on-TV barely-worth-listening-to games, I couldn't be more ready. Let's hope the Tigers are, too. Too bad they couldn't have played a game that would have told us at little more about if they were or not.

Thought you might want a visual representation of what going through the Tennessee Tech box score was like.

The Works, revisionist history-style

No, we're not real happy, either.

One result of one's college football team playing Tennessee friggin' Tech (has anyone raised the possibility this is some sort of weird favor to Jeff Lebo?) is that it's not easy to come up with blogging material about that week's actual, you know, game. After Hey, did you know they're coached by Watson Brown? there's not much to say. Actually, I think the Lebo thing is about the extent of my Tech-related material. And that's frankly the way it should be; I feel it's my duty as a blogger to not dignify a "game" that's barely more significant than the hoops team's exhibition win yesterday over What Boise St.'s Famous For College (see, their real name is Bluefield, so, like, LOLZ!) that Auburn will nonetheless merrily charge full price for. Blecch. I don't think it's a coincidence that Jay, TWER, and myself have all been a little less, uh, prolific than we would normally be.

But there's always other topics. Like for instance, the guy who's picture is at the top of this post. Lots of Auburn fans have been pleading, pleading, to see this first precious year of Burns's eligibility not get flushed down the toilet on one (or less) quarterback draw a game so predictable various earthworms, house flies, centipedes, and Dennis Franchione see him enter the game and go "Well, gee, are they going to run a quarterback draw here? I'll be so shocked if they do." The Mobile Register nicely sums up Burns's efforts since NMSU in the first line of this article: Run right. Run left. Repeat.

But the piece makes a couple of points worth repeating, the first being that when people start throwing the same "Eh, just a running QB" accusations they tossed at Tebow this preseason at Burns in preseason 2008, remember that Burns aired it out on a regular basis in high school--just as (here we go again) Tebow did before Meyer turned him into a kind of alternate-universe Owen Schmitt.

Also, there's this quote from Tubby:

"A lot of people would say, 'Why did you play him?' But if you look six weeks ago, you know the reason why."

Yep. As desperately as I wanted to see Burns redshirt, Evil Brandon forced Tubby's hand. There was no sane way he could stay on the field after the USF game and the start of the Miss. St. game. And with Blake Field apparently going to see the field never under any circumstances and Neil Caudle hurt, Burns was the only option.

Which is why, when it's the final game of the 2010 season and Burns has played his final game for the orange-and-blue, I think the history books will record that the single biggest injury, suspension, off-the-field-that-went-awry for Auburn in 2007 was the shoulder knock to Caudle. With Caudle around and healthy, I wager Auburn's coaches give him a look, he does well enough to give Cox the necessary time on the bench (really, relatively solid as he was, was Burns so much better than, well, any decent QB recruit would have been?), and Burns is back for 2011. Maybe I'm wrong. But if Burns develops the way we all (the earthworms included) expect him to, I bet I'm not.

A surprising surplus is still a surplus. Jay G. Tate had some cool stuff this week on Groves's sorta-ballyhooed move to linebacker (which sorta basically amounts to him standing up rather than getting down into a stance) but also writes:

"LB Merrill Johnson is either hurt or in the doghouse. Johnson was a starter to begin the season, but coaches don't seem enthusiastic about getting him back on the field. Tuberville said the other day that Johnson is 100% healthy. Draw your own conclusions."

OK. My conclusion is this: you only get three starting linebackers. When Blackmon is healthy, that's one. Chris Evans has established himself as an unshakable No. 2. Tate doesn't seem high on Craig Stevens, but the defense's outing against Arkansas--the most impressive of the season--was fueled in part by Stevens's five solo tackles, behind only Blackmon. He wasn't exactly a force vs. LSU or Ole Miss, and it doesn't fully explain why Johnson didn't get a single play at LB vs. the Rebels, but the prevalence of the nickel means that an LB rotation doesn't have to be too deep and I'm not sure Stevens had played so badly to get benched just because Johnson was healthy again. Auburn has, essentially, four starting-quality linebackers and three spots. The hunch here is that Johnson plays himself back into the rotation this week.

Separated at birth. Couple of interesting pieces in the Plainsman recently, one of which must be read simply for the use of the adjective "pecuniary" (as well as a fascinating definition of "self-medication") and the other for the helpful information that "not just that the government did it and the Raptor Center did it" when it comes to the bald eagle finally getting off the endangered species list. (It wasn't just Auburn's Raptor Center acting alone? Are we sure?)

But honestly? I bring it up because Alabama Gov. Bob Riley was on hand for the eagle thing, and I have to point out the similarity between Riley:



and this Sullustan pilot from Star Wars (a relative of Nien Nunb, no doubt):



Uncanny! Big tip of the hat to my buddy Adam on this one.

Points of interest elsewhere. Have to say I'm a little surprised so, so many bloggers, pundits, fans, etc. are back on the Ohio St. Kool-Aid. Weren't all these exact same things being said about the Buckeyes last year? Weren't they all proven to be about the most misguided theory since spontaneous generation? Fool me once ...

Could not agree more with SMQ on Hawaii and I fully believe the Blogpoll at least keeping them down in the poll's nether regions rather than in--God help us all--BCS bowl-clinching position is proof all by its freaking lonesome it should replace the Harris Poll yesterday.

Lastly, I understand there's a game of some consequence going on in T-Town this weekend. I'm going to thoroughly enjoy watching said game because from the Auburn fan's perspective, this is your classic win-win situation: LSU wins, great, the SEC's still in the national title hunt and more importantly Alabama loses; Alabama wins, great, Auburn's still got an outside shot at Atlanta (Arkansas would have to beat LSU, decidedly not as unlikely as it looked before the Hogs obliterated the Rebs in Oxford and exactly the sort of insane thing Nutt would manage to do) and Alabama might come into J-Hare with the calm, casual feeling they've already gotten the important win out of the way. That'd be nice.

On another level, this game has made us all winners already, because a new (cougar-enhanced!) cover got added to the Bocephus Album Cover Worry Index.

Yes, that is Bjork chilling in J-Hare.



Bjork! The full story behind the pic's been up at the War Eagle Reader for more than a week, but I'll be damned if I let a post like that one go un-linked.

Not Surprise

"Well there's a big surprise! I thought I was going to have a have a heart attack and die, from Not Surprise!"
--Iago, Aladdin

I really wish bookies would take prop bets on things on useless, intangible stuff, because I could have made a killing on the Ole Miss game. Or last year's Ole Miss game. And the Ole Miss game before that. It's the same Ole Miss game, every year.

How? Let us count the ways:

1. Statistical dominance from Auburn but still an inexplicably close game well into the second half? Check. I know, I know, the score's the only statistic that counts, but it's also the only place this was even a remotely competitive game. 420 yards to 193. 22 first downs to 15. 36 minutes of possession time to 23. 5.7 yards a play to 3.7. Exactly one Auburn drive failed to end in Ole Miss territory. This was a 30-3 blowout in "If not for that interception, this was a tie ball game!" clothing.

2. Final score still worth two touchdowns of comfort? Check. Sure, Arkansas obliterated the Rebels, but the Hogs were mad. The Rebels took Florida and 'Bama both to the wire. I'll take our 17-3 snoozer over the Tide's outing against those guys any time. In fact, I won't just take it, I'll even throw in a couple of bucks for the Rebels' trouble. The bottom line is that two-TD SEC wins--especially this year, especially when one's team is playing its ninth straight week without a bye, especially when they're only a week removed from their most physically and emotionally demanding game of the season--do not come as cheap as this one looked. (Or, I'm assuming it looked. I was rocking the Sirius.)

3. Post-game headline and stories geared towards assuring the fans that the somnabulant win is no cause for alarm? Check. Check, check, check.

4. Fans who decide the light drizzle is the sky falling in? Check. What's funny is that I was writing a response to this kind of reaction just about this time last year. After Auburn's closer-than-expected win over, whaddya know, Ole Miss.

Here's the only rub: that performance last year, better than so many Auburn fans gave it credit for, did ... well ... sort of prove to herald a stretch run I think it's fair to call, um, subpar. (The always-sugary 'Bama win notwithstanding, when paired with the embarrassment against Georgia and truly hideous win over Nebraska.) I don't think Saturday's win needs defending. But will it when we've come out the other side of Amen Corner?

I don't think so, for three reasons on display against the Rebels:

1. Evil Brandon (i.e. the guy who started against UGA in 2006) is exorcised, with yet another clutch fourth-quarter TD as my witness.
2. This offensive line is better than last year's and will neither let Good Brandon come to so much psychological harm nor watch the running backs behind them meet tacklers before the line of scrimmage, as was the case so often a year ago (One sack Saturday, 4.8 yards per rush).
3. This defense (the principal point of worry after last year's Ole Miss game, you'll note) will not yield provided they're not in the presence of Matt Flynn channeling the departed spirit of Kurt Warner circa 1999.

So, as stated before, one slightly off Saturday filled with Not Surprise isn't going to worry me. At this point, it's a second straight year of tanking vs. the Dawgs that would be the real surprise.

6. Let us now praise famous men (Forward!)

Sixth and final post in a series.



I started this little rockslide of LSU posts looking at the downside of Auburn's loss, and why I'd summarize the post-game reaction amongst the Auburn faithful as much more "The Kids Are Alright" than, well, my reaction. There was so much at stake in that game--and Auburn came so damn MATT FLYNN NOOOO WE HATES HIM FOREVER close--that, personally, I know good and well I'm going to be cursing the purple-and-gold principals involved for as long as I'm going to curse the MiB-style alien inside J**n V****n's head who spilled Coke all over his control panels in 2005.

But I wouldn't care nearly as much if the Tigers hadn't shown--once and for all, as the saying goes--in their exquisite first half, and then again on that fourth quarter drive stirring enough that this post proved to be entirely appropriate, that they have gone in a few short weeks from a team that had to rally to beat New Mexico St. to one that could beat any team in the nation if the breaks fell right. There is no doubt any more; this is a terrific Auburn team, and my disappointment in the LSU defeat comes not from their performance, but that such a fine performance could still result in defeat. If they weren't this good, the stakes wouldn't have been so high. Only great teams play the kind of great games that wound this deeply, and make no mistake--this was a great, great game.

And here is the gleaming silver lining: We will see this Auburn team play five more games. At least two of them--those terrible, wonderful final two in the Amen Corner--will have similar stakes, and many could (and will) argue that this year's Iron Bowl will have even higher all-in stakes than the LSU game. I'm probably one of those fans myself. A win over 'Bama without an SEC title or an SEC title without win over 'Bama? After this particular season of Saban worship, I'll take the former. (Hat tip here to TWER for both their all-too-accurate label of "fetid" for this column and the single best pun on King Crimson's name yet generated. Somewhere, Rushdie's applauding like mad.)

I have miles and miles to go before I feel confident saying anything definitive about the outcome of the Amen Corner. But I know that this team is going to play hard, play well, and is going to go into the fourth quarter (or as I've come to call it, "Cox Time" .... though I don't call it that out loud, no, for obvious reasons) with a chance to win the game. Barring injury, there are not going to be any 37-15 beatings this year. That, I feel beyond confident about.

It's thanks to these guys:

1. Brandon Cox. 18-28, 199, 2 TD, 0 picks. Against LSU. In Death Valley. Including that ridiculous fourth-quarter drive capped the equally ridiculous all-by-itself throw to Smith, easily the single best throw of Cox's career. I don't know if Evil Brandon is dead just yet, but the doctors are looking worried and any fans of his (Ferguson?) might want to take this opportunity to say their good-byes while they can.

2. Sen'Derrick Marks, Pat Sims, Josh Thompson, Quentin Groves, Antonio Coleman. Those were the two best defensive lines in the country on the field last Saturday or my name is Van.

3. Jason Bosley. Sprained knee, out for two weeks. Oh, except he's actually going to come back and play every snap of those two weeks, on the road against Arkansas and the horrors of LSU's d-line. Why do I get the feeling we could have used more of this sort of stubbornness and determination on last year's offensive line?

4. Jerraud Powers. Forget it, Jerraud. It's Chinatown. Er, Baton Rouge.

5. Brad Lester. After another "He's back" performance (125 total yards on 21 touches) and seeing Tate, well, maybe not display quite Lester's quality of vision on a couple of plays, Auburn's got its No. 1. (Again.)

These are but five, of course, out of many, many, many that fought like Tigers last Saturday. Do I wish the same way I wish Ann Arbor had a Chick-Fil-A (i.e. like hell) that they'd come back with a win from the valley of Death? Yep. But that doesn't mean--particularly given what this team's next two or three seasons already look like--I'd trade them for any other team in America.

War Eagle.

(p.s. Disregard some of this optimism if Auburn loses to Ole Miss today. No Wish List, this week, sorry. I'm wishing for a win, preferably one that doesn't involve injuries or heart palpitations for the fans. After the Mr. Toad's Wild Ride of the past few weeks, I feel like that's all I really want.)

5. Ockham's razor

Fifth in a series. Click for posts One, Two, Three, and Four.

The simplest explanation is the most likely one.

So which of the following explanations for this:



is the simplest?

Explanation A: That, as Tyronne Green explained to Phillip Marshall, the play was an unfortunate result of an error in the execution of Auburn's cut-block pass protection scheme. Tubby is being honest when he apologizes for the play and says there was no intent to injure.

Explanation B: With Tubby's agreement and supervision, Hugh Nall teaches Auburn's offensive linemen how to chop block and readies them to do so in game action. After Dorsey's early-game success against Auburn, they maliciously make the choice to take him out of the game and instruct Ramsey to make the chop block. Everyone involved--Tubby, Nall, Ramsey, Ziemba--go into it understanding they may be ending Dorsey's career and do not care. Afterward, Tubby lies through his teeth at the press conference, concocts an explanation and later instructs Green to lie as well, and even alters the team's offensive line grading sheets just in case a snoop like Marshall lets something slip in the comments thread of his blog.

So: Explanation A or Explanation B? I think it's rather obvious which is simpler. I think it's rather obvious which is more likely. I see no evidence other than the video itself to support Explanation B.

But, hey if you're the sort of 'Bama fan who gets your jollies headlining your posts with an inflammatory description of Tubby that just happens to be the exact opposite of what he actually said, I suppose "simpler" doesn't much matter. If you're Orson and trying to stir up as many fans from as many sides as possible in the fastest possible time, why wait for "most likely" or "evidence" when you can just label Auburn's coaches "sh*tbags" and throw around unfounded accusations?

To be perfectly honest, watching live, yes, I thought Ramsey was due for two games on the bench. But given that Tubby--a guy not exactly foreign to sitting his guys down when he feels it's warranted--says adamantly that a suspension isn't appropriate, that Auburn has no track record for this kind of thing, that the league office hasn't taken action, that as Marshall points out no one but the players on the field has any hard cause to believe anything one way or the other, and that we have Explanation A in hand ... what reason is there to believe otherwise?

(p.s. Have you looked up "irony" in your Merriam-Webster's this week? It reads: "irony: n. LSU fans crying about a suspension for Ramsey after their team won a game started by a guy who went Bruce Lee on the opposing quarterback the Saturday previous.")

4. It comes around

Fourth in a series.



No, unlike Tubby, I'm not wound up about the officiating in this game.

I do think it's rather evident that picking up an illegal formation flag just because the replay official happened to consider it the right thing to do is a flagrant violation of officiating protocol. And that infamous spot on LSU's final drive was a bad joke.

But overall, the officiating in this game wasn't quite what I'd call one-sided. Even Tubby admitted the Dorsey "chop" should have been 15. There's a blatant, screaming, take-down hold by Bosley on the pass to Lester that takes Auburn inside the 10 on their final drive. It went uncalled. And the helmet-to-helmet penalty from earlier on that drive, while I think a necessary call, was hardly what you'd call an obvious case of malicious intent. I seriously doubt I'd be writing about it now if it hadn't been flagged.

But more importantly, there's this:



Whatever you think of this call--and I am of that happy Auburn majority who happen to think the correct call was made--it's not debatable that it could have gone either way. Whatever you think of Chris Leak's fumble/not-fumble in Jordan-Hare last year, again, it has to be acknowledged that the direction chosen by the officiating crew on that play might as well have been chosen by the flip of a coin as much as an examination of the rulebook. I don't agree with ATVS's position on Ramsey (that's up next) but I don't see any reason to disagree with them when they write that it was Auburn's turn to draw the short straw from the officials.

The hard truth is that the Law of Averages was never going to be kind to Auburn this week. As Kevin Scarbinsky pointed out this week (when he wasn't busy using the word "Maybe" as its own paragraph, anyway), beating Florida, Arkansas, and LSU all on the road was alwasy going to be the next-best-thing to impossible. Doing it in mega-dramatic, fourth-quarter heart-stoppages, touchdown-or-less fashion all three times? I know this whole season is college football's version of Opposite Day, but we're talking "Auburn wins 24-23, tear opens in the space-time continuum" unlikely here. (It does not help that, despite what some enthusiastic Auburn fans and LSU haters seem to think, LSU was the better down-to-down team. 488 yards to 296 is still 488 to 296, as well as Auburn owned the clock and bent rather than breaking on D.)

And, of course, there's last year to deal with. I'm not going to repeat myself (yet) again, but the bottom line is that Auburn was not as good as their glittering record last season. So it became likely that this season, Auburn would in fact be a better team than their record indicated.

And here we are. At 5-3 and with the three losses coming a) in overtime b) with Auburn stalled nine yards away c) on a well-defended 25-yard pass play on the last play of regulation, all by a total of 14 points, it's safe to say that Auburn is indeed seeing what went around in 2006 come around.

3. %&@# Matt Flynn

Third in a series.



That's right, I said %&@# this guy. Against a Kentucky team just seven days before whose defense is, to put it as politely as I can, not Auburn's, he goes 17-35 for 130 yards, one TD and one pick. That's an average of 3.7 yards an attempt, with any number of throws so ugly they should have been sponsored by the uniforms Notre Dame threw up back to vs. USC. I know Doucet wasn't there, but that doesn't begin to explain that kind of statistical performance. It was awful. Atrocious. Decisively "L"-worthy. Even an outing twice as good against Auburn, given Auburn's own sound performance, wouldn't have been nearly enough.

But of course the bastard doesn't play twice as well. He plays, oh, I think the scientific terminology would be a googlebazillion times better. He goes 22-35 for 319, a TD, and a pick that only a brain fart so loud the Queen of England turned to someone somewhere and said "Goodness me, how rude" kept from actually being another 40 yards and maybe a second TD. Every pass that doinked harmlessly into the ground against UK's soft coverage fell beautifully into hands of blanketed receivers against Auburn. Yards per attempt? 9.1. It seems near unbelievable that a defense as good as Auburn's could give up 488 yards and I would still look back and say "I'm not sure they really could have played that much better," but I'm not sure they really could have played that much better.

Flynn was that good. And judging by his performances elsewhere, he is unlikely to be that good again. He saved his best for us. He had to; any less brilliant of a performance, any one less pass on the money, and LSU loses that game.

Again: %&@# him, %&@# him completely, and I mean that as the highest compliment.

2. Decisions

Second in a series.



Not sure if I have ever, ever, seen a game with so many gigantic coaching decisions to analyze. Consider LSU's last drive alone, on which Tubby had to decide:

1. Whether to use both timeouts to save time on the clock for the offense
2. Whether to use one timeout to save clock and save one to ice the kicker
3. To use neither and double-ice him
4. To use one to ice and save one for the offense's drive (which would have been a poor choice)

as well as supervising all the usual defensive calls, all while Miles had to decide:

1. When the offense was in field-goal range at all
2. If they were, whether to accept that field goal try or try for the end zone
3. Whether to try for the end zone or try to push further down the field for an easier field goal

... while also accounting for time and the timeout in his pocket each and every step of the way. Fascinating, excruciating stuff, the exact sort of thing that makes this currently the best-played, most exciting rivalry in America. Four years, four bona fide classics. Can any other series at this level (i.e. at the point where a BCS conference title is at stake) make that claim? I don't have the time to seriously investigate, but I bet the answer is "not quite."

As for Miles's final call, everything I would say has been said already by Michael and Brian. I have been stunned by how many pundits, bloggers, etc. have simply ignored the obvious fact that the LSU timekeeper was busy watching Hee-Haw reruns or just getting back from a nice long visit to the john or in the middle of another endless Lord Palmerston v. Pitt the Elder debate, or whatever he was doing. If he does his job, no one's talking about Miles having testicles for brains. The only counter is that Miles should have tried for a more makeable field goal, but with that strategy comes a bushel-ful more risk of interception, sack, chaos, etc.

Tubby's endgame decisions are less defensible. In a vacuum, the squib makes sense. Your kickoff coverage unit has proven itself unreliable this season; your defense has meanwhile proven itself, by and large, to be the team's greatest strength and a damn-near impenetrable force when on its game. It makes every bit of sense in the world to put the game in the defense's hands rather than the kickoff team's.

But the game wasn't being played in a vacuum or on paper or any other peculiar Phantom Tollbooth-esque venue, and in the all-too-real confines of Death Valley LSU needed only a field goal and Auburn's defense had been shredded like so many incriminating documents all half long. Every other kickoff until that one yes, squib away. But at some point adjustments have to be made. Even Auburn's best-case scenario put it on the 30, and the defense just couldn't be expected to hold from there, either, with as much time as LSU had to work with.

From my viewpoint that wasn't Tubby's only error, either. Given how well Cox had directed the last drive, given how well he's done all season with the game in the fourth quarter and balanced on a wire, and given what Byrum has likewise accomplished to date, I think you burn the timeouts and give them a chance to win it with a field goal of their own. Having a less-exhausted defense wouldn't have hurt Auburn's chances of forcing a long field goal, either.

But I can't be too tough on Tubby. For starters the criticism of his failure to challenge that last-drive spot is off-base; it's oh-so-easy for those of us with a glowing yellow line across the field to say the guy fell a half-yard short, but they don't have that benefit on the sideline and even if they did, risking a timeout just to force LSU to sneak the ball a half-yard for a first-down might not be the best play, either.

More importantly? His team was ready to play, again. They executed as well as they possibly could against one of the best, if not the best, team in the nation, again. They did it on the road in a nauseatingly difficult place to play, again. Am I still unhappy the game ended the way it did? Yes. But I am not unhappy with the effort, preparation, or in general the coaching decisions.

Tubby didn't bring his "A" game. But I'll still take his "B+" game against the likes of LSU any day of the week.

1. Opportunity

First in a series.



No. Watch: this is where this game gets decided.

It's 2nd-and-7 LSU, on the Auburn 35. 1:50 left in the game. Colt David's career long is 45 yards; LSU needs seven more yards to make that range and probably 12 to feel good about themselves. Or as good as they can feel, anyway, with a kicker who missed a 36-yarder just two weeks ago at home and honked a 28-yarder to open the fourth quarter in this same game, in this same venue, two years ago. Put briefly: until LSU cuts the field-goal distance to 42, 43 yards or less or so, Auburn is the game's most likely winner.

So: 2nd-and-7. The call is a toss right, to the strong side of the formation, to Jacob Hester.

Sen'Derrick Marks, playing left defensive tackle for Auburn, gets a decent push upfield but the play moves wide too quick for him to do anything but force Hester to cut upfield a touch later than he might like. Quentin Groves, playing left end, is blown three yards off the line of scrimmage and towards the sideline by LSU tight end Richard Dickson. LSU's right tackle, Carnell Stewart, fills in behind Dickson and erases linebacker Craig Stevens at the point of attack. Dickson's and Stewart's blocks have opened a lane for Hester.

Auburn has a player standing in this lane, however. Safety Eric Brock moved quickly and smartly towards the line of scrimmage on the toss and is in position to make the tackle. It will be one-on-one between Brock and Hester, a mere half-yard beyond the line of scrimmage. If Brock stones him (unlikely), LSU will face 3rd-and-7. If he simply tackles, LSU faces 3rd-and-5, 3rd-and-4. Makeable distances, yes, particularly in two-down territory, but Auburn will still have the upper hand and LSU did not execute in a similar situation the week prior at Kentucky. And: while there is a lot of space for Hester to work with, Brock is in position.

But he does not make the tackle. Hester cuts to his left and Brock nearly whiffs entirely, leaving pursuing weakside linebacker Chris Evans to drag Hester down from behind but not before LSU has moved to the 25-yard line. First down. Auburn no longer has the upper hand, and 90 seconds later Les Miles will feel secure enough in his field position that he will smartly eliminate his field goal kicker from the equation entirely. The game is not lost on the touchdown pass. The game is lost when the touchdown pass not only becomes a possibility, but a sound strategy. The game is lost when Eric Brock fails to tackle Jacob Hester.

I don't mean to single Brock out as a goat; he just happened to be the key Auburn player on what I view as the game's key play. (Hell, you could argue Groves was as much at fault for not holding his ground and allowing the lane to form in the first place.) There are also extenuating circumstances for Brock: Due to the injury to Aairon Savage, Brock has been on the field nearly every play for the last several games. Hester, on the other hand, was fresh as a corndog-scented daisy thanks to LSU's flotilla of running backs and is a load in any case. And as quickly as Brock reacted, so clean were LSU's other blocks that didn't really have time to set himself and explode. He did everything right; he gave himself the opportunity to make a play that may have altered the game's outcome; but for understandable reasons, he didn't take advantage of it.

Which is why that play not only played a major role in deciding the game, but serves as a microcosm of it; Auburn-LSU 2007 in a disappointing nutshell. This game was Auburn's capital-O Opportunity. A massive, season-sized one. There are oodles of sound reasons Auburn missed it. But that doesn't mean it wasn't there.

It's true that in the wake of the Crooming, the idea of Auburn even receiving (much less seizing) that kind of opportunity seemed flat impossible, the mere starry-eyed dreams of too-close-to-see-the-big-picture team members and coaches, the delusional CandyLand chirpings of fans not mature enough to see the truth. So I wonder if finding out that the truth was as bright and pastel-colored as those fans said, as Tubby bafflingly declared it might be, is why many Auburn fans seems to have this loss shaken off while I'm still watching Hester slip through Brock's grasp on DVR, cursing, rewinding, cursing again.

Of course it's exciting to think about the program's future when the entire team, sans QB, is back next year. Of course it's terrific that a team that turned the ball over 10 times in two weeks neither fumbled nor threw an interception facing quite possibly the country's best defense. Of course I am more than proud of the Tigers' incredible team effort, of the guile of Brandon Cox and that amazing 83-yard TD drive, of even Jerraud Powers being in the best possible position to foil that last touchdown pass when we would all immediately forgive him for falling a step behind on a call like that one.

But this was an Opportunity to play for and possibly win the SEC championship. This team was (no, not "is," unless Flynn decays back into his vs. Kentucky form) fully capable of that accomplishment. And that's not an Opportunity--however badly we Auburn fans would like to believe it is--that comes every year.

Just looking at the Tubby era, the 1999 and 2003 teams were never close. The 2001 team was capable of pulling things together for one-off shots of brilliance (Florida, Georgia) but was never top-to-bottom good enough to win a title. Ditto 2000, fun as the ride with Rudi was, with Florida standing in the way. Ditto 2006 after that brutal LSU win, with victory after victory arriving via smoke-and-turnover-related-mirrors.

The 2002, 2004, and 2005 teams, yes, did have this Opportunity. 2002's was lost on 4th-and-Too-Damn-Far against that outstanding Georgia team. 2005's disappeared in the haze of J**n V****n's brain. 2004's, of course, was seized by the throat and never released.

And now we have seen the 2007 team give itself that same Opportunity, and we have now seen it go. Give Tubby full credit, yes, for ever having a group of Tigers this young in that remarkable position. But I don't think Auburn fans can be at the point yet where we can take these Opportunities for granted. It was there, right there, barrelling into Auburn's arms like Hester coming towards Brock.

Should we expect Brock to make that tackle? Should we have expected Auburn to come back from Baton Rouge with a win? No. But that doesn't mean it shouldn't still hurt like total hell to watch Jacob Hester break free and carry another SEC title away and out of reach for our team.

If Auburn finishes 10-3, even 9-4 with an Iron Bowl win, I will feel better about this. But today Auburn is 5-3, and forgive me for still mourning what was lost for good this year last Saturday.

Delays, Power Poll ballot

First, an apology for not having any post-LSU reaction up yet. I mean, cripes, you know a game like that one, we've got reactions for days. But Life, Work, etc. have had other ideas the last couple of days. I'll make it up to you one way or another later this week.

In the meantime ...



1. LSU. If Matt Flynn's going to continue to show that kind of Kurt-Warner-in-1999 accuracy, just hand them the crystal football now. And oh yeah--if the LSU timekeeper's not asleep at the wheel, no one's questioning Miles.

2. Florida. Who needs a secondary? With Carolina's demise, what offense left on the Gators' schedule is going to be capable of keeping up with Tebow and pals?

3. Auburn. Auburn fans will live with being the consensus best three-loss team in America. Not sure they'll feel quite as chipper if they wind up the best four-loss team at any point down the stretch.

4. Kentucky. After Woodson re-affirmed his Heisman bona fides, 'Cats should be favored over both Tennessee and Georgia down the stretch. In related news, Satan has called for a 12 p.m. press conference tomorrow at which he is expected to announce that due to recent developments, Hell will shortly be reopening as Lil' Devils Sno-Cone and Shaved Ice Emporium.

5. South Carolina. Apparently Spurrier spent some time hanging out in smoking jackets with Charlie Weis in the Offensive Geniuses Club last week. Nonetheless the 'Cocks' wins over Kentucky and Georgia still trump 'Bama's over Tennessee and Arkansas, both at home.

6. Alabama. Aw, damn. Their incompetence was fun while it lasted. Thanks for nothing, Philsbury Doughboy.

7. Tennessee. Not much difference between the Vols and the next two teams on this list, so their head-to-head win over the Dawgs keeps them ahead. But the guess here is they end up in the "best team that's not from Mississippi or named for a guy who liked to pretend he'd been in the Navy" by season's end.

8. Georgia. Week off shouldn't obscure fact that Dawgs' last two games have been bludgeoning at hands of Keystone Vols and lottery-winner-fortunate win over Vandy.

9. Arkansas. All three losses came in Twiggy-narrow fashion, two very good teams in Auburn and Kentucky and one on road at 'Bama. You know Nutt's taking as many teams down with him as he can manage.

10. Vanderblilt. In: Mackenzi Adams. 5 minutes ago: Curtis Nickson. Out: Greg Zolman. (Two more to a bowl! Go, Vandy, go!)

11. Mississippi St. As Auburn loss fades into background, have to ask why Bulldogs couldn't make a bit more of their upset bids against either the Vols or 'Cocks, both of which looked eminently upsettable this past week, at least. Oh, and of course WVU demolished them.

12. Ole Miss. Safe to say the Rebels just might have caught the Hogs at the wrong time. Happen to think 'Bama fans and bloggers could have been a touch more gracious toward the poor benighted Rebels and fans in the wake of the replay reversal (How often do they get a chance to win a game like that? Of course they're going to whine) but it sure didn't look like the Rebs had gotten over themselves by kickoff, either.

Auburn V

Press play.

-----------------

This day is called the feast of Crispian:
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when the day is named,



And rouse him at the name of Crispian.
He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say 'To-morrow is Saint Crispian:'
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars.
And say 'These wounds I had on Crispin's day.'



Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember with advantages
What feats he did that day: then shall our names.
Familiar in his mouth as household words
Tubby the king, Muschamp and Borges,
Cox and Blackmon, Tate and Etheridge,
Be in their flowing cups freshly remember'd.



This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remember'd;
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers ...

...

... Let me speak proudly: tell the constable
We are but warriors for the working-day;

Our gayness and our gilt are all besmirch'd
With rainy marching in the painful field;

There's not a piece of feather in our host--
Good argument, I hope, we will not fly--
And time hath worn us into slovenry:
But, by the mass, our hearts are in the trim ...

Go Auburn.
Beat LSU.
War Damn Eagle.

--------

(Massive tip of the hat to commenters Pat and SCTiger for basically writing this post for me. I take it as a sign that maybe I am doing something right if I am drawing readers like these.)

Wish List: LSU

One More Time, Wes.

When Auburn has the ball

1. That Auburn keeps pounding, chipping away. That Cox keeps his head up after one or two bad plays. Statistically speaking, there are no chinks, no flaws, no imperfections in the LSU defensive machine. They allow the fifth-least yards-per-carry in the country. Opposing passers have a lower rating against LSU than any other team in the country. Only Ohio St. allows fewer yards-per-play, period, and what's most impressive about this resum-ay is that it's been compiled playing the likes of Tebow and Woodson and Henig, as opposed to, say, whoever's quarterbacking Minnesota these days. There is no weakness to pinpoint, no magic bullet, against this group. Even looking at the Kentucky game doesn't seem like it'll help much. We're all back on the Cox ... well, it never graduated to "bandwagon" status, did it? Let's say we're all back on the Cox Radio Flyer. But even sitting in our beautiful little red wagon that suddenly accelerates to 60 miles-an-hour with three minutes to play in the game, we're not going to ask our quarterback to throw 38 times. Because he's not going to complete 21 for 3 TDs and, well, isn't a first-round All-American.

But Kentucky did something besides let Woodson rip, and that's the something Auburn can peel from the Wildcat "blueprint"--they stuck with the run, even with no Rafael Little, even with precious little success. They finished 41-135, an average of dead-on three a carry. It wouldn't be accurate to say they exactly "wore down" LSU, either. They rushed six times for four yards in OT.

But they had to keep rushing, because there is no way a one-dimensional offense survives against LSU. Just rush the ball, you're going nowhere (ask Va. Tech). Just pass and you're begging for Sack-Fumble or a pick. Balance is always nice; against a D like LSU's it's mandatory. Even if Tate and Lester keep getting swallowed alive by Dorsey, Borges should keep handing off. Even if Cox slips into early-season inexplicability for a play or two, he should keep taking his shots. Giving up on either the running or passing game is a sure way to give up on the offense as a whole.

Because they have Andre Woodson, Kentucky could get away with throwing the ball 38 times. My hunch is that if they'd asked him to throw it 50-55 times, they might have gained a few more yards, but they'd have watched him get crushed a time or two, get picked one more time, and they'd have lost the game. Balance, balance, balance, Auburn.

A quick little note here about the run game: As good as his reputation is, I'd run right at Tyson Jackson. Look at the right side of the Tigers' d-line: Dorsey has 34 tackles (fifth on the team, a crazy number for a defensive tackle ... by comparison, as well as Pat Sims has played this year, he's 13th on the Auburn list) and right end Kirston Pittman has 40. Jackson, however, and left tackle Marlon Favorite have only combined for 32. Jackson's obviously a great speed rusher, but just coming into this season I'd have told opposing teams facing Auburn to run at Groves, I wonder if some space can be carved out on that side of the line. As with last week: King Dunlap, it's now or never.

2. That Borges leaves nothing in the playbook. For two weeks I've asked to see Kodi Burns do anything other than take the snap and start running around, and we're still waiting. The only reason I haven't been angrier about this--and believe me, when we're talking about wasting a year of a five-star next-Jason-Campbell QB's eligibility to have him run around three times a game, I am starting to grow very angry indeed--is the hope that the Auburn coaching staff has kept him under wraps for this game. Whatever Burns-based tricks we've got, whatever snazzy fake end-arounds or middle screens or flea flicker reverses Borges has stashed away, now's the time to pull them out.

Alabama is, yes, still the most important game on the schedule, but this one is almost certainly Auburn's most difficult. LSU's defense is too good to not have them at least a little worried about the threat of some chicanery. As fantastic a job as they did against Florida and Vandy, our offense is still led by Brandon Cox, will start two true freshman (fantastic as they are) on the offensive line and a hobbled center, and does not possess a deep threat at wide receiver. It's an extension of the first wish, really: If LSU is not kept off-balance, they will grind Auburn's offense to dust.

3. That Auburn commits no turnovers in LSU territory. None. I wished the opposite against the Gators a couple weeks back, because in the Swamp it was the offense that was the elite unit and had to be given every disadvantage. In Baton Rouge? Every single point is beyond precious. Neither team has scored more than 17 points in regulation in the last three years of this rivalry and given that these may very well be the two best defenses in the country (seriously, look at the total defense rankings, and tell me which teams in the top 15 have faced the slate Auburn and LSU have. Please don't make any comparisons between what Auburn's D did against New Mexico St. and what Boise's did, though. Thanks for your cooperation) I expect that to continue. Despite his Duval-esque hangover last week, Byrum deserves the benefit of the doubt and if trying a 40-yard field goal means running a draw on 3rd-and-14 from the LSU 23, I for one am OK with that. Winning 9-7 games in back-to-back weeks is fine and dandy with me, sir. But if Auburn fumbles inside the 10 again and misses two field goals, or Cox reverts to his USF-era "Screw the dump-off, I'm going for six even though my guy couldn't be more covered if he was a Waffle House hash brown" madness, even nine points will seem like a fairy tale.

Conversely, if Auburn does turn the ball over in our own territory, I kind of like our defense's odds of coming up with a stop and their kicker appears eminently more crappy than ours. Unlike against the Gators, it's more important for the offense to take advantage of short-field opportunities than it is to limit theirs.

I usually stop at three, but one more quick wish for the offense:

4. That Auburn limits three-and-outs. There's only so much that can be done against that D, but as against Florida, the more time Auburn milks off the clock the less involved that nutzoid crowd gets and the fewer possessions each team gets and the more random bounces of the ball matter and the less time LSU's overall talent and experience advantage--yes, it's there ... aside from running back and probably kicker, which of LSU's units isn't at least equal to Auburn's in pure ability? more on this in a second--gets to pay off. 1-for-13 on third down isn't going to cut it this week. I don't expect Auburn to go on the sort of 80-yard marches they pulled off against Florida, but the defense has to at least get a first down's worth of wind-sucking on the bench or the burden of winning this game--which certainly falls on them--will wear them down.

When Auburn is on special teams

5. That whoever punts for Auburn doesn't suck this week. I don't think I have to go in-depth about how important field position is in a 13-7ish game; it's a lesson I think we all learned in vivid color against Miss. St. Losing 10 yards of it every time we drop back to punt is unacceptable.

When LSU has the ball

6. That if the game's throat is available, Auburn seizes it. It happened again last week. An opposing quarterback threw directly into the arms of a member of the Auburn secondary--I think it was Etheridge--with nothing but wide open spaces and six glorious points in front of him. And the ball slipped to the turf.

I would guess I'm more forgiving of these kinds of plays than most fans. Defenders aren't necessarily expecting to have the ball thrown at them, they don't have the hands of their offensive counterparts, a ball that slips through their fingers usually means that they were in the correct position and did something very right even if they didn't add the proverbial cherry on top.

This week? If the opportunity arises those plays must be made. Getting six points of our defense--hell, just getting the opportunity to kick a field goal--in a first-to-17-wins game would go beyond the terminology of "big play" and "huge" and most likely go straight to "play that determines the outcome of both team's seasons." The best news is that based on Matt Flynn's play against a Kentucky defense nowhere near Auburn's capabilities--try 17-35 for 130, a mindblowingly-awful 3.7 yards per attempt that doesn't take an ugly pick and three sacks into account--the opportunity for that kind of play will be there. Make it, Auburn.

BONUS 7. That they come after Flynn. I'm not always the biggest fan of blitzing. Do it against any halfway decent QB, don't get there, and either he's off and running through broken contain or he's found someone in man-to-man. With Doucet back, as good as Powers, Lee, and Wilhite have been, the little red "DANGER" light is going to be blinking any time more than four Tigers cross the line.

But Muschamp should bring the heat anyway. As mentioned, LSU gave up three sacks to Kentucky--the same Kentucky that recorded zero against a Florida Atlantic team that threw just as often. Tulane--Tulane!--got to Flynn six times. I might not say the same were the game on the Plains, but Auburn's defense doesn't just need to hold LSU down in this game. They need to help the offense. And as vulnerable as LSU's pass protection has looked in recent weeks, forcing Flynn into panic mode (or just applying the Josh Freeman Heimlich Maneuver) looks like the most convenient way to force the turnovers that will accomplish that.

Closing thoughts

Like Ryan at the Auburner (though maybe not with quite so much the LOL-worthy sputtering rage), I wish LSU had pulled out the Kentucky game, breathed a sigh of relief all week, and arrived Saturday unprepared for how Auburn's defense will hit them. We know now thats' not going to happen.

But this game has become important enough--I daresay with the demise of LSU's traditional rivalries against Texas A&M and Ole Miss, Auburn may be their public enemy No. 1--that I don't think the loss to Kentucky really makes all that much difference. LSU was going to be ready regardless. Auburn was going to be ready regardless.

Which means it comes down to the teams, the coaching staffs, and that soul-destroying edifice and the corndog-scented manimals that inhabit it. Remember: it is the one environment even Tubby, Road Game Mind Ninja, has been unable to figure out.

Both defenses have major advantages over the offenses; I would say LSU's experience on the offensive line, overall talent, and success in running the ball means they match up slightly better vs. our defense than our offense (who really could have used an explosive wideout in a game like this) does vs. theirs. So that's two ways I would give LSU the slimmest of edges.

But Auburn has a trump card. They approach this game as a sizable underdog, with everything at stake, the complete redemption from the Crooming within grasp--and there is no coaching staff in America that has proven itself better at preparing for a game with these kinds of elements at work than Auburn's. No one's. As we all know, Tubby is 9 of 10 against top 10 teams, and here is his chance to erase that one smudge on the record.

I said last time that the odds are long enough that I cannot bring myself to expect him to do it. But I would never, ever, bet against him.

War Eagle.

(Two p.s.'s: One, you should check out And the Valley Shook for your LSU blogging needs. Two, there's one more post to go here before the game, maybe this afternoon, more likely tomorrow a.m. Do check back.)